Business Cycles
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month, surprising expectations of a much tamer…
The Atlanta Fed’s US Wage Growth Tracker stalled at 5.2% in December, unchanged from November. Notably, after falling from a peak of 7.1% in June 2022, this indicator has stabilized at still-elevated levels in recent months. This dynamic raises the question…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors keep portfolio duration close to benchmark for now. They will increase rate exposure as the labor market downturn worsens. Treasury yields are up slightly to start the year, but last Friday’s…
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index delivered a slight positive surprise on Tuesday. The index rose 1.3 points to a five-month high of 91.9 in December and beat consensus expectations of 91.0. However, the contents of the report were more mixed. On the…
The Santa Claus rally started in late October lifting the S&P 500 by 15.8%. However, there are signs that the rally is getting tired. Consider the following: The S&P 500 has been trading at around 4,750 since the middle of December. …
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish after the election.
Optimism among investors and economic agents continues to improve in the Eurozone. The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone rose from -16.8 to -15.8 in January – in line with consensus expectations and marking the third consecutive increase. The current…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the structural landscape of China's property market today is, in many aspects, more challenging than the real estate markets in Japan and the US at the peak of their housing bubbles: The…
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Importantly, the USD weakness was…