Business Cycles
The uptick in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to 102.0 pushed it above consensus estimates of 101.0 in November. Although this is a marginally positive signal, the prior month was revised down from 102.6 to 99.1. Moreover, the details of the…
US home prices climbed to a new all-time high in September. According to data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, prices gained 0.7% m/m, albeit a slower pace of increase than the 0.8% m/m rise in August. On an annual basis, house price appreciation…
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live & Unfiltered livestream that both…
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this constructive situation, including…
While the S&P 500 has rallied by 18.8% so far this year, not all sectors and industries have gained on a year-to-date basis. Nearly half of the 11 sectors are in the red. This list, which is made up of Utilities (-11.7%), Consumer Staples (-4.6%), Energy…
Chinese industrial profits for October delivered a pessimistic signal on Monday as the annual growth rate eased to 2.7% y/y. While the latest update marks the third consecutive month of profit growth, it is a sharp slowdown from 17.2% y/y and 11.9% y/y in…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
The US flash PMI sent a mixed signal about economic activity in November. The Composite index was unchanged at 50.7 – beating expectations of a slight decline to 50.4. The stable reading comes on the back of a deterioration in manufacturing and a slight…
The US nonfarm payroll report is an important monthly data release that investors scrutinize for updates on the state of the US labor market and economy more broadly. In the current context, the updates help gauge whether the US economy is heading toward…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…