Corporate Profits

Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast on Thursday, October 1st at 10:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM BST, 4:00 PM CEST, 10:00 PM HKT) where we will discuss the outlook. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights Macroeconomic outlook: Global growth faces near-term challenges from a resurgence in the pandemic and the failure of the US Congress to pass a stimulus deal. However, growth should revive next year as a vaccine becomes available and fiscal policy turns stimulative again. Global asset allocation: Favor equities over bonds on a 12-month horizon, while maintaining somewhat larger than normal cash positions in the short run that can be deployed if stocks resume their correction. Equities: Prepare to pivot from the “Pandemic trade” to the “Reopening trade.” Vaccine optimism should pave the way for cyclicals to outperform defensives, international stocks to outperform their US peers, and for value to outperform growth. Fixed income: Bond yields will rise modestly, suggesting that investors should maintain below average duration exposure. Favor inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. Spread product will outperform safe government bonds. Currencies: The US dollar will weaken over the next 12 months. The collapse in interest rate differentials, stronger global growth, and a widening US trade deficit are all bearish for the greenback. Commodities: Rising demand and constrained supply will support oil prices, while Chinese stimulus will buoy industrial metals. Investors should buy gold and other real assets as a hedge against long-term inflation risk. I. Macroeconomic Outlook Policy And The Pandemic Will Continue To Drive Markets Going into the fourth quarter of 2020, we are tactically neutral on global equities but remain overweight stocks and other risk assets on a 12-month horizon. As has been the case for much of the year, both the virus and the policy response to the pandemic will continue to be key drivers of market returns. Coronavirus: Still Spreading Fast, But Less Deadly On the virus front, the global number of daily new cases continues to trend higher, with the 7-day average reaching a record high of nearly 300,000 this week (Chart 1). Chart 1Globally, The Number Of Daily New Cases Continues To Trend Higher The number of daily new cases in the EU has risen above its April peak. Spain and France have been particularly hard hit. Canada is also seeing a pronounced rise in new cases. In the US, the number of new cases peaked in July. However, the 7-day average has been creeping up since early September, raising the risk of a third wave. On the positive side, mortality rates in most countries remain well below their spring levels. There is no clear consensus as to why the virus has become less lethal. Better medical treatments, including the use of low-cost steroids, have certainly helped. A shift in the incidence of cases towards younger, healthier people has also lowered the overall mortality rate. In addition, there is some evidence that the virus may be evolving to be more contagious but less deadly.1 It would not be surprising if that were the case. After all, a virus that kills its host will also kill itself. Lastly, pervasive mask wearing may be mitigating the severity of the disease by reducing the initial viral load that infected individuals receive.2 A smaller initial dose gives the immune system more time to launch an effective counterattack. It has even been speculated that the widespread use of masks may be acting as a form of “variolation.” Prior to the invention of vaccines, variolation was used to engender natural immunity. Perhaps most famously, upon taking command of the Continental Army in 1775, George Washington had all his troops exposed to small amounts of smallpox.3 The gamble worked. The US ended up winning the Revolutionary War, making Washington the first president of the new republic. Waiting For A Vaccine Despite the decline in mortality rates, there is still much that remains unknown about Covid-19, including the extent to which the disease will lead to long-term damage to the vascular and nervous systems. Thus, while governments are unlikely to impose the same sort of severe lockdown measures that they implemented in March, rising case counts will delay reopening plans, and in many cases, lead to the reintroduction of stricter social distancing rules. Chart 2Some States Have Started To Relax Lockdown Measures This has already happened in a number of countries. The UK reinstated more stringent regulations over social gatherings last week, including ordering pubs and restaurants to close by 10pm. Spain has introduced tougher mobility restrictions in Madrid and surrounding municipalities. France ordered gyms and restaurants to close for two weeks. Canada has also tightened regulations, with the government of Quebec raising the alert level to maximum “red alert” in several regions of the province. In the US, the share of the population living in states that were in the process of relaxing lockdown measures has risen above 50% for the first time since July (Chart 2). A third wave would almost certainly forestall the recent reopening trend. Ultimately, a safe and effective vaccine will be necessary to defeat the virus. Fortunately, about half of experts polled by the Good Judgment Project expect a vaccine to become available by the first quarter of 2021. Only 2% expect there to be no vaccine available by April 2022, down from over 50% in May (Chart 3). Chart 3When Will A Vaccine Become Available? Premature Fiscal Tightening And The Risk of Second-Round Effects Even if a vaccine becomes available early next year, there is a danger that the global economy will have suffered enough damage over the intervening months to forestall a rapid recovery. Whenever an economy suffers an adverse shock, a feedback loop can develop where rising joblessness leads to less spending, leading to even more joblessness. Fiscal stimulus can short-circuit this vicious circle by providing households with adequate income to maintain spending. Fiscal policy in the major economies turned expansionary within weeks of the onset of the pandemic (Chart 4). In the US, real personal income growth actually accelerated in the spring because transfers from the government more than offset the loss in wage and salary compensation (Chart 5). Chart 4Fiscal Policy Has Been Very Stimulative This Year Chart 5Personal Income Accelerated Earlier This Year Chart 6Drastic Drop In Weekly Unemployment Insurance Payments   Starting in August, US fiscal policy turned less accommodative. Chart 6 shows that regular weekly unemployment payments have fallen from around $25 billion to $8 billion since the end of July. At an annualized rate, this amounts to over 4% of GDP in fiscal tightening. While President Trump signed an executive order redirecting some of the money that had been earmarked for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to be given to unemployed workers, the available funding will run out within the next month or so. On top of that, the funds in the small business Paycheck Protection Program have been used up, while many state and local governments face a severe cash crunch. US households saved a lot going into the autumn, so a sudden stop in spending is unlikely. Nevertheless, fissures in the economy are widening. Core retail sales contracted in August for the first time since April. Consumer expectations of future income growth remain weak (Chart 7). Permanent job losses are rising faster than they did during the Great Recession (Chart 8). Both corporate bankruptcy and mortgage delinquency rates are moving up, while bank lending standards have tightened significantly (Chart 9).  Chart 7Consumer Expectations Of Future Income Growth Remain Weak Chart 8Permanent Job Losses Are Rising Faster Than They Did During The Great Recession     Chart 9Corporate Bankruptcy And Mortgage Delinquency Rates Are Moving Up … While Bank Lending Standards Have Tightened Significantly Fiscal Stimulus Will Return We ultimately expect US fiscal policy to turn accommodative again. There is no appetite for fiscal austerity. Both political parties are moving in a more populist direction, which usually signals larger budget deficits. Even among Republicans, more registered voters support extending emergency federal unemployment insurance payments than oppose it (Chart 10). Chart 10There Is Much Public Support For Fiscal Stimulus As long as interest rates stay low, there will be little market pressure to trim budget deficits. US real rates remain in negative territory. Despite a rising debt stock, the Congressional Budget Office expects net interest payments to decline towards 1% of GDP over the span of the next couple of years, thus reaching the lowest level in six decades (Chart 11). Outside the US, there has been little movement towards tightening fiscal policy. The UK government unveiled last week a fresh round of economic and fiscal measures to help ease the burden on both employees, by subsidizing part-time work for example, and firms, by extending government-guaranteed loan programs. At the beginning of the month, the Macron government announced a 100 billion euro stimulus plan in France. Meanwhile, European leaders are moving forward on a euro area-wide 750 billion euro stimulus package that was announced this summer. In Japan, the new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has indicated that he will pursue a third budget to fight the economic downturn, adding that “there is no limit to the amount of bonds the government can issue to support an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic.” The Japanese government now earns more interest than it pays because two-thirds of all Japanese debt bears negative yields (Chart 12). At least for now, a big debt burden is actually good for the Japanese government’s finances! Chart 11Low Interest Payments Amid Skyrocketing Debt In The US Chart 12Japan: Ballooning Debt And Declining Interest Payments China also continues to stimulate its economy. Jing Sima, BCA’s chief China strategist, expects the broad-measure fiscal deficit to reach a record 8% of GDP this year and remain elevated into next year. The annual change in total social financing – a broad measure of Chinese credit formation – is expected to hit 35% of GDP, just shy of its GFC peak (Chart 13). Not surprisingly, the Chinese economy is responding well to all this stimulus. Sales of floor space rose 40% year-over-year in August, driven by a close to 60% jump in Tier-1 cities. Excavator sales, a leading indicator for construction spending, are up 51% over last year’s levels, while industrial profits have jumped 19%. A resurgent Chinese economy has historically been closely associated with rising global trade (Chart 14). Chart 13China Continues To Stimulate Its Economy Chart 14Chinese Economic Rebound Has Historically Been Closely Associated With Rising Global Trade Biden Or Trump: How Will Financial Markets React? Betting markets expect former Vice President Joe Biden to become president and for the Democrats to gain control of the Senate (Chart 15). A “blue wave” would produce more fiscal spending in the next few years. Recall that House Democrats passed a $3.5 trillion stimulus bill in May that was quickly rejected by Senate Republicans. More recently, Democratic leaders have suggested they would approve a stimulus deal in the range of $2-to-$2.5 trillion. Chart 15Betting Markets Putting Their Money On The Democrats In addition to more pandemic-related stimulus, Joe Biden has also proposed a variety of longer-term spending initiatives. These include $2 trillion in infrastructure spending spread over four years, a $700 billion “Made in America” plan that would increase federal procurement of domestically produced goods and services, and new spending proposals worth about 1.7% of GDP per annum centered on health care, housing, education, and child and elder care. As president, Joe Biden would likely take a less confrontational stance towards relations with China. While rolling back tariffs would not be an immediate priority for a Biden administration, it could happen later in 2021. Less welcome for investors would be an increase in taxes. Joe Biden has proposed raising taxes by $4 trillion over ten years (about 1.5% of cumulative GDP). Slightly less than half of that consists of higher personal taxes on both regular income (for taxpayers earning more than $400,000 per year) and capital gains (for tax filers with over $1 million in income). The other half consists of increased business taxes, mainly in the form of a hike in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and the introduction of a minimum 15% tax on the global book income of US-based companies. Netting it out, a blue sweep in November would probably be neutral-to-slightly negative for equities. What about government bonds? Our guess is that Treasury yields would rise modestly in response to a blue wave, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve. Additional fiscal support would boost aggregate demand, implying that it would take less time for the economy to reach full employment. That said, interest rate expectations are unlikely to rise as sharply as they did in late 2016 following Donald Trump‘s victory. Back then, the Fed was primed to raise rates – it hiked rates nine times starting in December 2015, ultimately bringing the fed funds rate to 2.5% by end-2018. This time around, the Fed is firmly on hold, with the vast majority of FOMC members expecting policy rates to stay at rock-bottom levels until at least 2023.  The Fed’s New Tune In two important respects, the Fed’s new Monetary Policy Framework (MPF) represents a sharp break with the past. Chart 16The Mechanics Of Price-Level Targeting First, the MPF abandons the Fed’s historic reliance on a Taylor Rule-style framework, which prescribes lifting rates whenever the unemployment rate declines towards its equilibrium level. Second, the MPF eschews the “let bygones be bygones” approach of past monetary policymaking. Going forward, the Fed will try to maintain an average level of inflation of 2% over the course of the business cycle. This means that if inflation falls below 2%, the Fed will try to engineer a temporary inflation overshoot in order to bring the price level back up to its 2%-per-year upward trend (Chart 16). Some aspects of the Fed’s new strategy are both timely and laudable. A Taylor rule approach makes sense when there is a clear relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate, as governed by the so-called Phillips curve. However, if inflation fails to rise in response to declining economic slack – as has been the case in recent years – central banks may find themselves at a loss in determining where the neutral rate of interest lies. In this case, it might be preferable to keep interest rates at very low levels until the economy begins to overheat. Such a strategy would avoid the risk of raising rates prematurely, only to discover that they are too high for what the economy can handle. Targeting an average rate of inflation also has significant merit. When investors purchase long-term bonds, they run the risk that the real value of those bonds will deviate significantly from initial expectations when the bonds mature. If inflation surprises on the upside, the bonds will end up being worth less to the lender as measured by the quantity of goods and services that they can be exchanged for. If inflation surprises on the downside, borrowers could find themselves facing a larger real debt burden than they had anticipated. An inflation targeting system that corrects for past inflation surprises could give both borrowers and lenders greater certainty about the future price level. This, in turn, could reduce the inflation risk premium embedded in long-term bond yields, leading to a more efficient allocation of economic resources. In addition, an average inflation targeting system could make the zero lower bound constraint less vexing by keeping long-term inflation expectations from slipping below the central bank’s target. This would give the central bank more traction over monetary policy. A Bias Towards Higher Inflation Despite the advantages of the Fed’s new approach, it faces a number of hurdles, some practical and some political. On the practical side, it may turn out that the Phillips curve, rather than being flat, is kinked at a fairly low level of unemployment. Theoretically, that would not be too surprising. If I have 100 apples for sale and you want to buy 60, I have no incentive to raise prices. Even if you wanted to buy 80 apples, I would have no incentive to raise prices. However, if you wanted to buy 105 apples, then I would have an incentive to raise my selling price. The point is that inflation could remain stubbornly dormant as slack slowly disappears, only to rocket higher once full employment has been reached. Since changes in monetary policy only affect the economy with a lag, the central bank could find itself woefully behind the curve, scrambling to contain rising inflation. This is precisely what happened during the 1960s (Chart 17). Chart 17Inflation Started Accelerating Quickly Only When Unemployment Reached Very Low Levels In The 1960s Chart 18Something Has Always Happened To Preempt Overheating   Over the past three decades, something always happened that kept the US economy from overheating (Chart 18). The unemployment rate reached a 50-year low in 2019. Inflation may have moved higher this year had it not been for the fact that the global economy was clotheslined by the pandemic. In 2007, the economy was heating up only to be sandbagged by the housing bust. In 2000, the bursting of the dotcom bubble helped reverse incipient inflationary pressures. But just because the economy did not have a chance to overheat at any time over the past 30 years does not mean it cannot happen in the future.   The Political Economy Of Higher Inflation On the political side, average inflation targeting assumes that central banks will be just as willing to tolerate inflation undershoots as overshoots. This could be a faulty assumption. Generating an inflation overshoot requires that interest rates be kept low enough to enable unemployment to fall below its full employment level. That is likely to be politically popular. Generating an inflation undershoot, in contrast, requires restrictive monetary policy and rising unemployment. More joblessness would not sit well with workers. High interest rates could also damage the stock market and depress home prices, while forcing debt-saddled governments to shift more spending from social programs to bondholders. None of that will be politically popular. If central banks are quick to allow inflation overshoots but slow to engineer inflation undershoots, the result could be structurally higher inflation. Markets are not pricing in such an outcome (Chart 19). Chart 19Markets Are Not Pricing In Structurally Higher Inflation II. Financial Markets Global Asset Allocation: Despite Near-Term Dangers, Overweight Equities On A 12-Month Horizon An acceleration in the number of COVID-19 cases and the rising probability that the US Congress will fail to pass a stimulus bill before the November election could push equities and other risk assets lower in the near term. Investors should maintain somewhat larger than normal cash positions in the short run that can be deployed if stocks resume their correction. Chart 20The Decline In US Real Yields Since March Has Largely Offset The Rise In Stock Prices Provided that progress continues to be made towards developing a vaccine and US fiscal policy eventually turns stimulative again, stocks will regain their footing, rising about 15% from current levels over a 12-month horizon. Negative real bond yields will continue to support stocks (Chart 20). The 30-year TIPS yield has fallen by over 90 basis points in 2020. Even if one assumes that it will take the rest of the decade for S&P 500 earnings to return to their pre-pandemic trend, the deep drop in the risk-free component of the discount rate has still raised the present value of future S&P 500 cash flows by nearly 20% since the start of the year (Chart 21).   Chart 21The Present Value Of Earnings: A Scenario Analysis Thanks to these exceptionally low real bond yields, equity risk premia remain elevated (Chart 22). The TINA mantra reverberates throughout the investment world: There Is No Alternative to stocks. To get a sense of just how powerful TINA is, consider the fact that the dividend yield on the S&P 500 currently stands at 1.67%. That may not sound like much, but it is still a full percentage point higher than the paltry 0.67% yield on the 10-year Treasury note (Chart 23). Chart 22Equity Risk Premia Remain Elevated Chart 23S&P 500 Dividend Yield Is Above The Treasury Yield   Imagine having to decide whether to place your money either in an S&P 500 index fund or a 10-year Treasury note. Dividends-per-share paid by S&P 500 companies have almost always increased over time. However, even if we make the pessimistic assumption that dividends-per-share remain unchanged for the next ten years, the value of the S&P 500 would still have to fall by 10% over the next decade to equal the return on the 10-year note. Assuming that inflation averages around 1.9% over this period, the real value of the S&P 500 would need to drop by 25%. The picture is even more dramatic outside the US. In the euro area, the index would have to fall by over 30% in real terms for investors to make more money in bonds than stocks. In the UK, it would need to fall by over 50% (Chart 24). Chart 24 (I)Stocks Would Need To Fall A Lot For Equities To Underperform Bonds Chart 24 (II)Stocks Would Need To Fall A Lot For Equities To Underperform Bonds A Weaker US Dollar Favors International Stocks Outside the US, price-earnings ratios are lower, while equity risk premia are higher. Cheap valuations are usually not enough to justify a high-conviction investment call, however. One also needs a catalyst. Three potential catalysts could help propel international stocks higher over the next 12 months, while also giving value stocks and economically-sensitive equity sectors a boost: A weaker US dollar; the end of the pandemic; and a recovery in bank shares. Let’s start with the dollar. The US dollar faces a number of headwinds over the coming months. First, interest rate differentials have moved sharply against the greenback (Chart 25). Second, as a countercyclical currency, the dollar is likely to weaken as the global economy improves (Chart 26). Third, the current account deficit is rising again. It jumped over 50% from $112 billion in Q1 to $170 billion in Q2. According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, the trade balance is set to widened further in Q3. This deterioration in the dollar’s fundamentals is occurring against a backdrop where the currency remains 11% overvalued based on purchasing power parity exchange rates (Chart 27). Chart 25Interest Rate Differentials Have Moved Sharply Against The Greenback A weaker dollar is usually good for commodity prices and cyclical stocks (Chart 28). In general, commodity producers and cyclical stocks are overrepresented outside the US. Chart 26The Dollar Is Likely To Weaken As The Global Economy Improves   Chart 27USD Remains Overvalued Chart 28A Weaker Dollar Is Usually Good For Commodity Prices And Cyclical Stocks   BCA’s chief energy strategist Bob Ryan expects Brent to average $65/bbl in 2021, $21/bbl above what the market is anticipating. Ongoing Chinese stimulus should also buoy metal prices. A falling greenback helps overseas borrowers – many of whom are in emerging markets – whose loans are denominated in dollars but whose revenues are denominated in the local currency. It is thus no surprise that non-US stocks tend to outperform their US peers when global growth is strengthening and the dollar is weakening (Chart 29). Chart 29Non-US Equities Tend To Outperform Their US Peers When Global Growth Is Improving And The Dollar Is Weakening The outperformance of non-US stocks in soft dollar environments is particularly pronounced when returns are measured in common-currency terms. From the perspective of US-based investors, a weaker dollar raises the dollar value of overseas sales and profits, justifying higher valuations for international stocks. From the perspective of overseas investors, a weaker dollar reduces the local currency value of US sales and profits, implying a lower valuation for US stocks. This helps explain why European stocks tend to outperform their US counterparts when the euro is rising, even though a stronger euro hurts the European economy. It’s Value’s Turn To Shine Value stocks have often outperformed growth stocks when the US dollar has been weakening and global growth strengthening. Recall that value stocks did poorly during the late 1990s, a period of dollar strength and economic turbulence throughout the EM world. In contrast, value stocks did well between 2001 and 2007, a period during which the dollar was generally on the back foot. The relationship between value stocks, the dollar, and global growth broke down this summer. Growth stocks continued to pull ahead, even though global growth turned a corner and the dollar began to weaken. There are two reasons why this happened. First, investors were too slow to price in the windfall that growth stocks in the tech and health care sectors would end up receiving from the pandemic. Second, rather than rising in response to better economic growth data, real rates fell during the summer months. A falling discount rate benefits growth stocks more than value stocks because the former generate more of their earnings farther into the future. The tentative outperformance of value stocks in September suggests that the tables may have turned for the value/growth trade. Retail sales at physical stores are rebounding, while online sales growth is coming down from highly elevated levels (Chart 30). Bank of America estimates that US e-commerce penetration doubled in just a few short months earlier this year. Some “reversion to the trend” is likely, even if that trend does favor online stores over the long haul. Chart 30Are Brick-And Mortar Retailers Coming Back To Life? Chart 31The Pandemic Has Caused Global Server And PC Shipments To Surge   Meanwhile, PC shipments soared during the pandemic as companies and workers rushed out to buy computer gear to allow them to work from home (Chart 31). To the extent that this caused some spending to be brought forward, it could create an air pocket in tech demand over the next few quarters. A third wave of the virus in the US and ongoing second waves elsewhere could give growth stocks a boost once more, but the benefits are likely to be short-lived. If a vaccine becomes available early next year, investors will pivot from the “pandemic trade” to the “reopening trade.” The “reopening trade” will support companies such as banks, hotels, and transports that were crushed by lockdown measures and which are overrepresented in value indices. From a valuation perspective, value stocks are cheaper now compared to growth stocks than at any point in history – even cheaper than at the height of the dotcom bubble (Chart 32). Chart 32Value Stocks Are Extremely Cheap Relative To Growth Stocks The lofty valuations that growth stocks enjoy can be justified if the mega-cap tech companies that dominate the growth indices continue to increase earnings for many years to come. However, it is far from clear that this will happen. Close to three-quarters of US households already have an Amazon Prime account. Slightly over half have a Netflix account. Nearly 70% have a Facebook account. Google commands 92% of the internet search market. Together, sites owned by Google and Facebook generate about 60% of all online advertising revenue. While all of these companies dominate their markets, this could change. At one point during the dotcom bubble, Palm’s market capitalization was over six times greater than Apple’s. The Blackberry superseded the PalmPilot; the iPhone, in turn, superseded the Blackberry. History suggests that many of today’s technological leaders will end up as laggards. Investors looking to find the next tech leader can focus on smaller, fast growing companies. Unfortunately, picking winners in this space is easier said than done. History suggests that investors tend to overpay for growth, especially among small caps. Based on data compiled by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, small cap growth stocks have lagged small cap value stocks by an average of 6.4% per year on a market-cap weighted basis, and by 10.4% on an equal-weighted basis, since 1970 (Table 1). Table 1Small Caps Vis-A-Vis Large Caps: Comparison of Total Returns Bank On Banks Financial stocks are heavily overrepresented in value indices (Table 2). Banks have made significant provisions against bad loans this year. If global growth recovers in 2021 once a vaccine becomes available, some of these provisions will end up being released, boosting profits in the process. Table 2Breaking Down Growth And Value By Sector Chart 33Modestly Higher Bond Yields Will Benefit Bank Shares A stabilization in bond yields should also help bank shares. Chart 33 shows that a fall in bank stocks vis-à-vis the overall market has closely matched the decline in bond yields. While we do not think that central banks will tighten monetary policy in the next few years, nominal bond yields should still drift modestly higher as output gaps narrow. What about the outlook for bank earnings? A massive new credit boom is not in the cards in any major economy. Nevertheless, it should be noted that global bank EPS was able to return to its long-term trend in 2019, until being slammed again this year by the pandemic (Chart 34). Global bank book value-per-share was 30% higher in 2019 compared to GFC highs (even though price-per-share was 30% lower). Chart 34Global Bank EPS Was Able To Return To Its Pre-GFC Peak In 2019 Until The Pandemic Hit Chart 35European Bank Earnings Estimates Have Lagged Credit Growth   Admittedly, the global numbers disguise a lot of regional variation. While US banks were able to bring EPS back to its prior peak, and Canadian banks were able to easily surpass it, European bank EPS was still 70% below its pre-GFC highs in 2019. The launch of the common currency in 1999 set off a massive credit boom across much of Europe, leaving European banks dangerously overleveraged. The GFC and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis led to a spike in bad loans, necessitating numerous rounds of dilutive capital raises. At this point, however, European bank balance sheets are in much better shape. If EPS simply returns to its 2019 levels, European banks will trade at a generous earnings yield of close to 20%. That may not be such a hurdle to cross. Chart 35 shows that European bank earnings estimates have fallen far short of what would be expected from current credit growth. If, on top of all this, European banks are able to muster some sustained earnings growth thanks to somewhat steeper yield curves and further cost-cutting and consolidation, investors who buy banks today will be rewarded with outsized returns over the long haul.   Fixed Income: What Is Least Ugly? As noted above, a rebound in global growth should push up both equity prices and bond yields. As such, we would underweight fixed income within a global asset allocation framework. Within the fixed income bracket, investors should favor inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. They should underweight government bonds in favor of a modest overweight to spread product. Spreads are quite low but could sink further if economic activity revives faster than anticipated. The upper quality tranche of high-yield corporates, which are benefiting from central bank purchases, have an especially attractive risk-reward profile. EM debt should also fare well in a weaker dollar, stronger growth environment (Chart 36). Chart 36BB-Rated And EM Debt Offer Reasonable Risk-Reward Profiles Given that some investors have no choice but to own developed economy government bonds, which countries or regions should they buy from within this category? Chart 37 shows the 3-year trailing yield betas for several major developed bond markets. In general, the highest-yielding currencies (US and Canada) also have the highest betas, implying that their yields rise the most when global bond yields are rising and vice versa.  Chart 37High-Yielding Bond Markets Are The Most Cyclical In economies such as Europe and Japan where the neutral rate of interest is stuck deep below the zero bound, better economic news is unlikely to lift policy rate expectations by very much. After all, the optimal policy rate would still be above its neutral level even if better economic data brought the neutral rate from say, -4% to -3%. In contrast, when the neutral rate is close to zero or even positive, better economic data can lift medium-to-long-term interest rate expectations more meaningfully. As such, we would underweight US Treasurys and Canadian bonds, while overweighting Japanese government bonds (JGBs) over a 12-month horizon. On a currency-hedged basis, which is what most bond investors focus on, 10-year JGBs yield only 20 basis points less than US Treasurys (Table 3). This lower yield is more than offset by the risk that Treasury yields will rise more than yields on JGBs. Table 3Bond Markets Across The Developed World The End Game What will end the bull market in stocks? As is often the case, the answer is tighter monetary policy. The good news is tight money is not an imminent risk. The Fed will not hike rates at least until 2023, and it will take even longer than that for interest rates to rise elsewhere in the world. The bad news is that the day of reckoning will eventually arrive and when it does, bond yields will soar and stocks will tumble. Investors who want to hedge against this risk should consider owning more real assets. As was the case during the 1970s, farmland will do well from rising inflation. Suburban real estate will also benefit from more people working from home and, if recent trends persist, rising crime in urban areas. Gold should also do well. The yellow metal has come down from its August highs, but should benefit from a weaker dollar over the coming months, and ultimately, from a more stagflationary environment later this decade. Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1  “More infectious coronavirus mutation may be 'a good thing', says disease expert,” Reuters, August 17, 2020.  2 Nina Bai, ”One More Reason to Wear a Mask: You’ll Get Less Sick From COVID-19,” University of California San Francisco, July 31, 2020.  3 Dave Roos, “How Crude Smallpox Inoculations Helped George Washington Win the War,” History.com, May 18, 2020.     Global Investment Strategy View Matrix Current MacroQuant Model Scores

Special Report

Dear Client, There will be no Weekly Report on August 10, as the US Equity Strategy team will be on vacation for the week. Our regular publication schedule will resume on Monday August 17, 2020 with a Special Report by my colleague Chester Ntonifor, BCA’s Chief FX Strategist on the interplay of the style bias and the US Dollar. We trust that you will find this Report both informative and insightful. Kind Regards, Anastasios Feature Before getting to our analysis on why cyclicals will best defensives, we want to address our definition of cyclicals and defensives, where we think tech stands and why, discuss what our current positioning is and what time horizon we are targeting for this portfolio bent. Cyclicals And Defensives Definition Table 1 is a stripped down version of our current recommendations table and shows that our cyclicals definition is one of deep cyclicals including industrials, materials, energy and the information technology sector. Utilities, consumer staples, health care and telecom services (which is currently categorized as a GICS2) comprise our defensives universe. Table 1US Equity Strategy's Cyclicals Vs. Defensives Current Recommendations Tech Is Still Cyclical Importantly, we still consider the tech sector a deep cyclical and not a safe haven sector. While the COVID-19 fallout has acted as an accelerant especially to a faster absorption of goods and services of the tech titans, that is not a de facto change in the behavior of these still cyclical stocks.  As a reminder tech stocks have 60% export exposure or 20 percentage points higher than the broad market. The implication is that US tech trends should follow the ebbs and flows of the global economy. Contrary to popular belief that technology equities behaved defensively recently, empirical evidence gives credence to our hypothesis that technology stocks remain cyclical: from the Feb 19 SPX peak until the March trough the IT sector underperformed all four defensive sectors (Chart of the Week). In marked contrast, tech has left in the dust defensive sectors since the March bottom, cementing its cyclical status. Chart of the WeekTech Remains A Cyclical Sector Current Positioning With regard to our broader technology positioning, we are currently neutral the S&P tech sector, overweight the S&P internet retail index (which Amazon dominates) that sits under the S&P consumer discretionary sector and underweight the S&P interactive media & services index (which includes Alphabet and Facebook) that falls under the newly formed S&P communications services sector. Thus, our broadly defined tech sector exposure remains neutral. Meanwhile, last week we boosted the S&P materials sector to overweight and that move pushed our cyclicals/defensives bent marginally to preferring deep cyclicals to defensives (please see market cap weights in Table 1). Timing Is Key This portfolio bent may run into some near-term trouble as we expect a flare up of (geo)political risks (please see here and here), but once the election uncertainty lifts, hopefully in late-November/early-December, from that point onward and on a 9-12 month time horizon cyclicals should really start to flex their muscles versus defensives.  The purpose of this Special Report is to identify the top ten drivers of the looming cyclicals versus defensives outperformance phase on a cyclical time horizon. What follows is one page one chart per key reason, in no particular order of importance. 1.)    Dollar The Reflator Time and again we have highlighted the boost that internationally exposed sectors get from a weakening greenback. Cyclicals are the primary beneficiaries of such a backdrop as a lot of these deep cyclical companies garner over 50% of their sales from abroad. We recently updated in a Special Report the breakdown of GICS1 sectors’ foreign sourced revenues and more importantly their performance during US dollar bear markets. Cyclicals clearly have the upper hand. Chart 1 shows this tight inverse correlation, irrespective of what USD index we use. Finally, looking ahead a falling greenback will act as a relative profit reflator (US dollar shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 1), especially given that most of the defensive sectors are landlocked in the US and do not get a P&L fillip from positive translation gains. Chart 1CHART 1 2.)    Global Growth Recovery Not only does the debasing of the US dollar bode well for Income Statement (I/S) relative translation gains, but also serves as a tonic to global growth. In other words, a final demand recovery is in the works on the back of a pending virtuous cycle: a depreciating dollar lifts global growth, and an increase in trade brings more US dollars in circulation further weakening the greenback (top panel, Chart 2). Our Global Trade Activity Indicator also corroborates the USD message and underscores a global growth recovery into 2021 (second panel, Chart 2). Tack on the meteoric rise in the G10 economic surprise index (third panel, Chart 2) and factors are falling into place for a synchronized global economic recovery including a V-shaped US rebound from the depths of the recession in Q2 (ISM manufacturing survey shown advanced, bottom panel, Chart 2). Chart 2CHART 2 3.)    US Capex To The Rescue The latest GDP report made for grim reading. US capex collapsed 27% last quarter in line with the fall it suffered in Q1/2009. Not even bulletproof software investment escaped unscathed and contracted for the first time in seven years, albeit modestly. However, if the looming recovery resembles the GFC episode when real non-residential investment soared 40 percentage points from that nadir in the subsequent five quarters, then a slingshot rebound will ensue by the end of 2021. Importantly, our US capex indicator has an excellent track record in leading the relative share price ratio and confirms that a capex trough is already in store, tracing out the bottom hit during the Great Recession (top panel, Chart 3). Regional Fed surveys also signal that a capex boom looms in the coming quarters (middle panel, Chart 3). And, so do cheery CEOs that expect a sizable investment recovery in the next six months, according to the Conference Board survey (bottom panel, Chart 3). All of this is a harbinger of a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives. Chart 3CHART 3 4.)   Chinese Capex On The Upswing (Fiscal Easing) Across the pacific, Chinese excavator sales have gone vertical. While we take Chinese data with a grain of salt, Komatsu hydraulic excavator demand growth in China has averaged 45% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter ending in June. This Japanese company’s data, which has been unaffected by the US/Sino trade war, corroborates the Chinese official statistics (top panel, Chart 4). Infrastructure spending is also on the rise in China following an abrupt halt in projects started early in 2020. This revving of the investment spending engine is bullish for the broad commodity complex including US cyclicals (bottom panel, Chart 4). Chart 4CHART 4 5.) Chinese Monetary Easing None of the above investment recovery would have been possible had the Chinese authorities not opened up the liquidity spigots. Monetary easing via the sinking reserve-requirement-ratio (RRR) has been instrumental in engineering an economic rebound (RRR shown inverted, third panel, Chart 5). The credit-easing channel has been also important in funneling cash toward investment, and the climbing Li Keqiang index is evidence that sloshing liquidity is being put to good use (bottom & second panels, Chart 5). Finally, Chinese loan demand data also confirms that an economic recovery is in the offing and heralds a US cyclicals versus defensives portfolio tilt (top panel, Chart 5).  Chart 5CHART 5 6.)   Firming Financial Market Data (Chinese And EM Equity Market Outperformance) Typically, financial market data are early in sniffing out a turn in economic data. This anticipatory nature of financial markets is currently signaling that EM in general and Chinese economic growth in particular will make a significant comeback in the coming quarters. Importantly, Chinese bourses and the MSCI EM equity index (in USD) have recently started to outperform the ACWI and the SPX (Chart 6). Both of these equity markets are more cyclically exposed than the defensive US and global indexes because of the respective sector composition and have paved the way for a sustainable rise in the US cyclicals/defensives share price ratio (Chart 6).   Chart 6CHART 6 7.)    Transition From Deflation To Inflation Similarly to the EM and Chinese equity market outperformance of their DM peers, commodity prices are putting in a bottom and forecasting a brighter global trade backdrop for the rest of the year (top panel, Chart 7). The depreciating US dollar is also underpinning the commodity complex and this should serve as a catalyst for an exit from the recent global disinflationary backdrop, especially corporate wholesale price deflation. Domestically, the prices paid subcomponent of the ISM manufacturing survey is firming and projecting that relative pricing power will favor cyclicals versus defensives (bottom panel, Chart 7). Chart 7CHART 7 8.)   Profit Expectations Have Turned The Corner Sell-side extreme pessimism has given way to mild optimism as depicted by the now positive relative Net Earnings Revisions (NER) ratio (third panel, Chart 8).  Importantly, despite the spike in the relative NER ratio, the bar has not risen enough both on a relative profit growth and revenue growth basis in order to short circuit the recovery in the relative share price ratio (second & bottom panels, Chart 8).  Chart 8CHART 8 9.)   Alluring Valuations The relative Valuation Indicator remains below the neutral zone offering a cushion to investors that are contending to execute a cyclicals versus defensives portfolio bent (Chart 9).   Chart 9CHART 9 10.) Enticing Technicals Lastly, cyclicals are still unloved compared with defensives as our relative Technical Indicator (TI) highlights in Chart 10.  In fact, our relative TI also hovers below the neutral zone, near a level that has marked previous playable recovery rallies (bottom panel, Chart 10). Chart 10CHART 10     But Monitor Three Key Risks Over the coming 12 to 18 months, investors should prepare their portfolios for an outperformance phase of cyclical sectors relative to defensives. Nonetheless, we are closely monitoring a number of key risks that can put our view offside. First, the relentless rise of ex-Vice President Biden in the polls on PREDICTIT, the rapidly increasing probability of a “Blue Sweep” in the upcoming elections, and the non-negligible risk of a contested election (as discussed in a joined Special Report with our sister Geopolitical Strategy service last week), all pose a short-term threat to the benign election backdrop priced into stocks. Were a risk-off phase to materialize in the next three months, as we expect, then cyclicals would take the back seat versus defensives, at least temporarily (bottom panel, Chart 11). Second, what worries us most is that Dr. Copper and crude oil (another global growth barometer), especially compared with gold, have yet to confirm the global growth recovery. In other words, the fleeting oil-to-gold and copper-to-gold ratios underscore that the liquidity-to-growth handoff has gone on hiatus. While we are not ready to throw in the towel yet, these relative commodity signals are disconcerting, and were they to deteriorate further, they would definitely undermine our optimistic view on global growth (top and second panels, Chart 11). Finally, it is disquieting that our relative profit growth models have no pulse. They represent a significant risk to the relative earnings-led rebound which the rest of the indicators we track are anticipating (third panel, Chart 11). Chart 11Three Key Risks We Are Monitoring Bottom Line: On balance, a looming global growth recovery and pending global capex upcycle, a softening US dollar, commodity price inflation and Chinese monetary easing will more than offset the trifecta of rising election-related risks, the current unresponsiveness of our relative profit growth models and the lack of confirmation of a liquidity-to-growth transition. This will pave the way for a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives.     Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com  

Special Report

Dear Client, Next Monday, July 20, we will be hosting our quarterly webcast, one at 10am EST for our US and EMEA clients and one at 9pm for our Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand clients; our regular weekly publication will resume on Monday July 27, 2020. Kind Regards, Anastasios Highlights A Democratic sweep would not prevent the stock market from grinding higher over the 12 months after the election. With this year’s massive stimulus, this cyclical view is reinforced. Whether Biden governs as a centrist or a left-winger will depend not on Biden’s preferences but on whether Republicans have a majority in the Senate to constrain the Democratic Party. But the party that wins the White House is highly likely to win the Senate in this cycle. Investors should expect Biden to govern from the left. A Biden presidency would lead to negative surprises on regulation, taxes, health care, trade, energy, and tech. Democrats would remove the Senate filibuster. Yet the macro agenda is reflationary. A blue trifecta would dent S&P 500 profit margins and take a bite out of EPS in 2022. Small caps will also likely suffer at the margin versus mega caps. While select Tech Titans are exposed to a blue sweep regulatory shock, the broad technology sector will prove to be more resilient especially compared with banks and health care equities. Feature Online political betting markets are still not fully pricing our “Blue Wave” scenario for the US election this year. The odds are closer to 50%-55% than 35%. Hence the equity market, especially the NASDAQ, is complacent about rising political risks to US equity sectors (Chart 1). The immediate risk to the rally is not politics but the pandemic, namely the COVID-19 resurgence in the United States, which is causing governors of major states like Texas, California, and Florida to slow down the economic reopening. The US’s failure to limit the spread of the virus has not yet led to a spike in deaths in aggregate, but it is leading to a spike in major states like Texas and Florida (Chart 2). Deaths are ultimately what matter to politicians and financial markets, since governments will not shut down all of society for less-than-lethal ailments. Fear will weigh on consumer and business confidence, including fear of a deadly second wave this winter. Near-term risks to the equity rally are elevated. Chart 1Blue Wave Expected, Equities Unconcerned Chart 2COVID-19 Outbreak Still A Risk Beyond this risk, the driver of the cyclical rally is the gargantuan monetary and fiscal stimulus – and more is on the way. President Trump wants another $2 trillion coronavirus relief package, while House Democrats already passed a $3 trillion package to demonstrate their election platform that government should take a greater role in American life. Senate Republicans (and reportedly Vice President Mike Pence) want a smaller $1 trillion bill but will capitulate in the face of a growing outbreak and any financial turmoil. Congress is highly likely to pass a new relief bill before going on recess on August 10. If COVID-19 causes another swoon in financial markets and the economy, then this congressional timeline will accelerate. America’s total fiscal stimulus for 2020 is rapidly approaching 20% of GDP, or 7% of global GDP (Chart 3). Thus it is understandable that the market has not reacted negatively to an impending blue wave election. Bipartisan reflation is overwhelming the Democratic Party’s market-negative agenda of re-regulation, tax hikes, minimum wage hikes, energy curbs, price caps, and anti-trust probes. Moreover the Democrats’ agenda also includes social and infrastructure spending, cheap immigrant labor, and less hawkish trade policy ex-China, which are all reflationary. Chart 3US Stimulus Greater Than Global – And Rising In short, over the next year, the US is not lurching from massive stimulus to a mid-term election that imposes budget controls and “austerity,” as occurred in 2010, but rather from massive stimulus to a likely Democratic sweep that will be fiscally profligate (Charts 4A & 4B). After all, Democrats are openly flirting with modern monetary theory. Chart 4ADeficits Would Soar Under Democrats Chart 4BDemocrats Would Be Ultra-Dovish On Fiscal Debt monetization is the big change, regardless of the election, which makes investors cyclically bullish. China is also bound to provide massive fiscal-and-credit stimulus because its first recession since the 1970s is threatening the Communist Party’s source of legitimacy (Chart 5). The European Union is uniting under a banner of joint debt issuance to fend off deflation. Bottom Line: Near-term risks to the exuberant post-lockdown rally abound, but the cyclical view remains constructive due to the ultimate policymaker stimulus put. Chart 5China Loosens Credit And Fiscal Taps Pre-Election Volatility And Post-Election Equity Returns Volatility normally rises ahead of US elections and it could linger in the aftermath given extreme polarization and the risk of vote recounts, contested results, Supreme Court interventions, and refusals by either candidate to concede. This is a concern in the short run but not the long run. US equities will grind higher over the long run regardless of the election outcome. Stocks normally rise by 10% in the 12 months after a presidential election that yields single-party control, though the upside is smaller and the initial downside is bigger than is the case with a gridlocked government (Chart 6, top panel). In cases of gridlock – which is virtually assured if Trump wins – the equity pullback after the election is just as deep but tends to be later in coming. On average stocks rise by the same amount after 12 months in either case (Chart 6, bottom panel). Thus political risks are primarily relevant in their regional or sectoral effects, though investors should take note that a Democratic sweep probably limits next year’s upside. Chart 6Equities Have Less Upside Under Democratic Sweep There are two likely scenarios. The first is the risk that President Trump makes a historic comeback and wins re-election, with Republicans retaining the Senate. Subjectively we put Trump’s odds at 35% though our quantitative model suggests they could be as high as 44%. The second scenario is our base case that the Democratic Party wins the Senate as well as the White House. In this scenario, the Democrats will prove more left-wing and anti-corporate than the market currently expects. Bottom Line: A Democratic sweep would not prevent the stock market from grinding higher over the 12 months after the election. With this year’s massive stimulus, this cyclical view is reinforced. However, history shows that a clean sweep limits the market’s upside risk. And full Democratic rule entails major political risks that have a regional and sectoral character. Biden And The Blue Wave Our expectation of a blue sweep is not based only in polling – which is uniformly disastrous for Trump as we go to press – but in the surge in unemployment. The basis for investors to view Biden as a risk-on candidate is driven by the macro and market views outlined above, not political fundamentals. From the political point of view, Biden may prefer to govern as a centrist, but victory in the Senate would remove constraints on his party’s domestic agenda. He would move to the left. Indeed, a Democratic sweep would mark a paradigm shift in domestic economic policy that is negative for corporate profits and the capital share of national income. It would unleash pent-up ideological and generational forces in favor of redistributing wealth and restructuring the economy. Progressivism would have the tendency to overshoot and create negative surprises for investors (Chart 7). Unlike 2008-10, when Republicans were last out of power, Republicans this time would be divided over Trump and populism and would be unlikely to recuperate as quickly. Chart 7Democratic Party Would Focus On Inequality Biden would end up governing to the left of the Obama administration, promoting Big Government while restricting Big Business and re-regulating Wall Street banks. A sharp leftward turn would be in keeping with the trend in the Democratic Party and the generational shift in the electorate (Chart 8). Only if Republicans pull off a surprise and keep the Senate despite losing the White House (~10% chance) would Biden be forced to govern as a true centrist. Even then Biden would oversee a large re-regulation of the economy through executive powers alone (Chart 9).1 Chart 8Generational Shift Favors Wealth Redistribution Chart 9Biden Would Re-Regulate The Economy Additional reasons to expect a left-wing policy overshoot:  · Presidents tend to succeed in passing their initial legislative priority after an election. This is incontrovertible when they control both chambers of Congress, as Obama showed in 2009 and Trump showed in 2017.2 · Biden will have huge tailwinds. He will not be launching a new agenda so much as restoring a policy status quo in most cases (laws and agreements that Trump either revoked or refused to enforce). He will also benefit from majority popular opinion and support of the bureaucracy and media (Chart 10). · Biden and the Democrats will be even more determined not to “let a good crisis go to waste” after having witnessed the Obama administration’s frustrations the last time the party took over in a sweeping victory on the back of a national disaster. · Democrats will not hesitate to use the budget reconciliation process to pass their first priority legislation with a mere 51 votes in the Senate. This is how Trump passed the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA). This is also how progressive stalwart Howard Dean believed the party should have passed a public health insurance option in 2009. This means Biden will be capable of increasing the corporate tax rate higher than 28%, pass a minimum 15% tax rate for corporations, and raise the capital gains tax and individual taxes. Chart 10Popular Opinion Would Boost Biden Administration · Contrary to consensus, Democrats are likely to remove the filibuster in the Senate – enabling bills to pass with a simple majority rather than the 60/100 votes required to close off debate. Yes, some moderate Democrats have already spoken out against “going nuclear” and changing such a critical norm. But populism and polarization are the driving forces in US politics today and we would advise investors not to bet heavily on “norms.” If Republicans prove capable of obstructing major legislative initiatives in the Senate, then Democrats, remembering obstructionism in the Obama years, will go nuclear to enact their progressive agenda. This would mark a massive increase in uncertainty for investors on everything from taxes to wages to anti-trust laws. Bottom Line: Whether Biden governs as a centrist or a left-winger will depend not on Biden’s preferences but on whether Republicans have a majority in the Senate to constrain the Democratic Party. But the party that wins the White House is highly likely to win the Senate in this cycle. Investors should expect Biden to govern from the left. If Republicans are obstructionist, Democrats will remove the filibuster. Biden’s Legislative Priorities First, Biden would seek to restore and expand the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). The party has fixated on health care since 1992. Investors are complacent about Biden’s plan. A public health insurance option will be a major new progressive initiative that would undercut private health insurers over time (Chart 11). The bill will also impose caps on pharmaceutical prices and allow imports, reducing Big Pharma’s pricing power (Chart 12). Chart 11Health Insurers Will Be Undercut By Biden Public Option Investors are also complacent about taxation. Biden will pay for health care reform by partially repealing the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. He has proposed raising the corporate rate from 21% to 28%, but this could go higher and still fall well below the 35% that Trump inherited in 2017. Chart 12Big Pharma Faces Price Caps A rate above 28% would be a major negative surprise for financial markets and yet it is an obvious way for Democrats to raise much-needed revenue. Biden also intends to pass a 15% minimum tax that would hit large firms adept at paying lower effective taxes. Capital gains taxes and individual income taxes for high-earners could also rise by more than is expected (Table A1 in Appendix). Second, Biden will seek to offset the negative growth impact of falling stimulus and rising taxes by enacting large “Great Society” fiscal spending on infrastructure, the Green New Deal, education, and other non-defense discretionary spending (Table A2 in Appendix). Even defense spending will be largely kept flat due to rising geopolitical conflicts. As mentioned, this part of the agenda is reflationary, especially relative to a scenario in which fiscal largesse is normalized more rapidly by a Republican Senate. The redistribution effects would be marginally positive for household consumption, but marginally negative for corporate investment. On immigration, Biden will follow the Obama administration in pursuing a path to citizenship for “Dreamers” (illegal immigrants brought to the US as children) and taking executive action to allow more high-skilled workers and refugees, defer deportation of children and families, and reduce border security enforcement. There will be some constraints due to the risk of provoking another populist backlash, but comprehensive immigration reform is possible. This would be positive for potential GDP, agriculture, construction, and housing demand on the margin (Chart 13). On trade, Biden will have to steal some thunder back from Trump if he is to win the election and maintain the Rust Belt. He will concentrate his protectionist policy on China, while removing virtually all risk of a trade war with Europe, Mexico, or other partners. China may get a reprieve at first but Biden will ultimately prove hawkish (Chart 14). Investors are underrating the use of import duties to punish countries like China for carbon-intensive production. Chart 13Biden Lax Immigration Policy A Boon For Housing Biden will take a multilateral approach and restore international agreements that Trump revoked. Joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is not a massive change given that even Trump agreed to trade deals with Canada, Mexico, and Japan. But it is marginally positive for the US-friendly trade bloc while contributing to the US economic decoupling from China (Chart 15). Chart 14Watch Out, Biden Won’t Be Too Dovish On China In Office! Chart 15Biden Eliminates Risk Of Global Trade War Ex-China On foreign policy, Biden will face the ongoing US-China cold war. He will also seek to restore the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015. The removal of Iran risk is positive for European companies with a beachhead in Iran as well as for the euro more generally, since regional instability ultimately threatens the EMU with waves of refugees (Chart 16). Chart 16Biden Removes Tail-Risk Of Iran War Bottom Line: A Biden presidency will lead to negative surprises on regulation, taxes, health care, trade, energy, and tech. But Biden’s agenda is mostly reflationary in other respects. Blue Wave Equity Market And Sector Implications The most profound implication of a blue sweep of government is an SPX profit margin squeeze that will weigh heavily on EPS. Importantly, there are two clear avenues through which net profit margins will suffer: An increase in the corporate tax rate. A rise in labor’s share of national income. As a reminder these are two of the four primary profit margin drivers we discussed in detail in our “Peak Margins” Special Report last October (Chart 17). The other two are selling price inflation and generationally low interest rates. Odds are high that all four drivers are slated to dent S&P 500 margins. With regard to corporate tax rates, the mirror image of the one time fillip that SPX EPS enjoyed in 2018, owing to Trump’s 1.2% increase in fiscal thrust that year, is a drop in S&P 500 profits given that a Biden presidency will boost the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% or higher. In early-December 2017 we posited that SPX EPS would jump 14% on the back of that fiscal easing package, which is very close to what actually materialized. Chart 18 compares S&P 500 EBIT growth with S&P 500 net profit growth. The 2018 delta hit a zenith of 16%. Chart 17Profit Margin Drivers Chart 18Spot Trump's Tax Cut Assuming a blue wave, the opposite would happen, i.e. net profit growth would suffer an 11% one-time contraction according to our calculations (Table 1). The bill would pass in 2021 and take effect in 2022. Importantly, Table 1 reveals that the hardest hit GICS1 sectors are real estate, tech and health care, and the ones faring the best are consumer staples, industrials and energy. Table 1What EPS Hit To Expect? Table 2S&P 600/S&P 500 Sector Comparison Table The second way SPX margins undergo a squeeze is via climbing labor costs. Labor costs have been increasing since 2008/09 (labor’s share of income shown inverted, second panel, Chart 17), coinciding with the apex of globalization (third panel, Chart 17). A Biden presidency would also more than double the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour for all workers over six years. These policies would take a bite out of corporate profits by knocking down profit margins. While S&P 500 EPS maybe recover back to trend near $162 in 2021, they would gap lower in 2022 which is not at all priced in sell side analysts’ EPS expectations of $186. A blue sweep would produce some other US equity sore spots. Small caps would suffer disproportionately compared with their large cap brethren as would banks, health care, and parts of tech (see below). Chart 19 shows that according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey, small and medium enterprise (SME) owners grew extremely concerned about higher taxes and red tape by the end of the Obama presidency. When President Trump got elected, he cut back these fears drastically. Today concerns about taxes and regulation are probing multi-decade lows, which implies that SMEs are not prepared for the regulatory shock that a Biden administration has in store for them (Chart 19). These small business concerns will resurface with a vengeance if there is a blue sweep this November. The implication is that at the margin small caps would underperform their large cap peers, especially given that small cap indexes sport 1.5x the financials sector market cap weight compared with the SPX (Table 2). Bottom Line: A blue trifecta would dent S&P 500 profit margins and take a bite out of EPS in 2022. Small caps will also likely suffer at the margin versus mega caps as they will have to vehemently contend with rising red tape and taxes. Chart 19Re-Regulation Will Weigh On Small Business Sentiment Historical Parallel Of Blue Sweeps And Select Sector Performance A more detailed discussion on banks, health care, and technology sectors is in order, as they are the likeliest candidates to be at the forefront of Biden’s regulatory, wage, and tax policies. There are two recent episodes when US presidential elections resulted in a blue sweep, namely in 1992 and 2008. Both times, Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress and the White House but eventually surrendered this trifecta two years later during the 1994 and 2010 mid-term elections.3 Charts 20 & 21highlight the S&P banks, S&P health care, and S&P IT sectors’ performance during the last two blue waves. In both cases, banks remained flat to down; health care equities went down sharply; while tech stocks had mixed results. Tech took off in 1993-1994, but remained flat in 2009-2010 (excluding the recovery rally off the recessionary trough). Armed with this general roadmap, we now dive deeper into each of these three sectors for a more detailed discussion. Chart 20Not Everyone Is A Fan... Chart 21...Of The Blue Sweeps Banks Face High Risk Of Re-Regulation There is little doubt that Biden will re-regulate Wall Street, especially after the recent COVID-19-related watering down of the Dodd-Frank Act. Big banks are popular scapegoats. In fact, Biden already moved to the left on bankruptcy reform by adopting Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s progressive proposal after a long drawn-out battle over this issue between them. Both of the earlier blue wave elections proved challenging for the banking sector. In addition, banks are already under pressure from the recent Fed stress tests. There are high odds that a number of banks will further cut or suspend dividend payments in coming quarters in line with the Fed’s guidance, especially if profits take a big hit, as we expect. Currently, the market is underestimating the Biden threat to the banking sector as a substantial divergence has materialized between the banks’ relative performance and the blue sweep probability series (Chart 22). As the election draws closer, a repricing in the banking sector is likely looming. Chart 22Mind The Divergence Health Care Stands To Lose The Most From A Blue Sweep The health care sector was the only sector we analyzed that clearly underperformed in both 1992 and 2008 blue waves. Health care reform will be Biden’s top priority, as outlined above. Biden will also go after pharma manufacturers. As a reminder, while Medicare has substantial bargaining power with hospitals and other drug providers due to the number of Americans enrolled, it has no leverage when it comes to pharma manufacturers leaving them free to set prices at will. Biden intends to end such practices, enabling Medicare to bargain for prices. He also wants to link the rise in drug prices to inflation and allow foreign imports. These actions will put a cap on pharma manufacturers’ pricing power. Importantly, the S&P pharmaceuticals index is the dominant player within the S&P health care universe comprising 29% of the entire health care sector. A direct hit to pharma earnings will be a hard pill to swallow, especially if the S&P biotech index (comprising 17% of the S&P health care market cap weight) is included that are similar to Big Pharma as they manufacture blockbuster drugs. In fact, as the American electorate is getting more interested in Biden’s campaign, the market is pricing in a tougher environment for US pharmaceuticals (Chart 23). Markets can rely on the fact that Biden has rejected a single-payer government health system (“Medicare For All”) – this policy position helped him beat Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. However, he is proposing a public insurance option, which will have the ability to absorb losses indefinitely and will have the insurance regulators at its side. Thus private health insurers will be undercut. Chart 23Beginning Of The End A public option is also seen even by promoters as a “Trojan Horse” that will increase the odds that Democrats will move toward a single-payer system in 2024 or thereafter. Thus the risk/reward ratio skews further to the downside for the S&P health care sector. Will Technology Escape Unscathed? In the wake of COVID-19, and facing geopolitical competition in cyber space, a Biden administration will also seek a much stronger regulatory handle on Big Tech. Social media companies are already buttering up to the Democrats to ensure that Biden maintains the Obama administration’s alliance with Silicon Valley and does not pursue extensive anti-monopoly and anti-trust investigations. Yet the tech sector cannot avoid heightened scrutiny due to its conspicuous gains in the midst of an economic bust – this is what normally prompts anti-trust actions (Chart 24). The Democrats will pursue probes into data privacy and excessive market concentration and will demand stricter patrolling of the ideological space in battles that will be adjudicated by the courts. Chart 24How Much Is Too Much? Should the monopolistic tech stocks – including FB and GOOGL, which are now classified under the GICS1 S&P communication services index – be forced to sell their crown jewel assets, then a hit to earnings is a given. The S&P technology sector plus FB & GOOGL commands more than one third on the SPX index, meaning that a dent in tech earnings will have negative ramifications for the entire market. In previous research, we drew a parallel with the chemicals industry and the regulatory shock that came in 1976 when the Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) was introduced.The bill pushed chemical stocks off the cliff as investments in the index became dead money for a whole decade – until 1985 when chemicals finally troughed (Chart 25) In the near future, a similar shock might come as a result of privacy-related regulation. A series of anti-monopoly or anti-trust probes, whether by the US or the EU, would make investors cautious about their tech exposure. While the probes may not result in a break-up, the heightened uncertainty would dampen the allure of tech stocks. The pattern of anti-trust probes in US history is that a probe first causes a selloff in the stock of the company investigated; then another selloff occurs when it is clear that a break-up is a real option under consideration; then a buying opportunity emerges either when the company is cleared or when the long dissolution process is completed. Bottom Line: While select Tech Titans are exposed to a blue sweep regulatory shock, the broad technology sector will prove to be more resilient especially compared with banks and health care equities. Chart 25Will History Rhyme?     Matt Gertken Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com Arseniy Urazov Research Associate arseniyu@bcaresearch.com   Appendix Table A1Biden Would Raise $4 Trillion In Revenue Over Ten YearsTable A2Biden Would Spend $6 Trillion In Programs Over Ten Years   Footnotes 1     Republicans have 13 Senate seats at risk this cycle while Democrats have only four. More conservatively, Republicans have nine at risk while Democrats have two. Opinion polling has Democrats leading in seven out of nine top races, and tied in the other two – including states like Kansas where Democrats should have zero chance. Most of these races are tight enough that they will hinge on whether the election is a referendum on Trump. If so, Democrats will likely win the net three seats they need to control the chamber. Most likely they will have a 51-49 majority if Biden wins, though a 52-48 balance is possible.   2     The Republican failure to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017 but success in passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reflects the fact that political constraints are higher on taking away an entitlement than they are on giving benefits (tax cuts). 3    As noted above, however, investors today cannot be assured that Republicans will come roaring back in 2022 to impose constraints. Trump’s populism threatens to divide the party if he loses and delay its ability to regroup and recover.  

Dear Client, There will be no US Equity Insights from July 1-3 inclusive, as the US Equity team will be on vacation for the week. Our regular publication schedule will resume on Monday July 13, 2020 with our Weekly Report. Happy Independence Day.  Kind Regards, Anastasios Highlights Portfolio Strategy Odds are high that stocks will move laterally in Q3, digesting the massive gains since the March 23 lows. Beyond that, on a cyclical 9-12 month time horizon we remain constructive on the return prospects of the broad market. On all three key profit fronts – price of credit, loan growth and credit quality – banks are starting to show signs of stress. Tack on the potential dividend cuts/suspensions and we were compelled to downgrade exposure to neutral. A dearth of M&A deals, a steep fall in margin debt and declining equity flows into mutual funds and exchange traded funds and potential dividend cuts/suspensions enticed us to trim exposure in the S&P investment banks & brokers index to neutral. Recent Changes Last Tuesday we downgraded the S&P banks and S&P investment banks & brokers indexes to neutral. These two moves also pushed the S&P financials sector weighting to neutral.1 Feature The SPX remains in churning mode, consolidating the massive gains since the March 23 lows. Easy fiscal and monetary policies are still the dominant macro themes underpinning markets, and thus any letdown in either loose policies poses a threat to the 1000 point three-month SPX run-up (bottom panel, Chart 1). Importantly, correlations have gone vertical of late with the CBOE’s implied correlation index – gauging the S&P 500 constituents’ pairwise correlations – surging to 70% (implied correlation index shown inverted, second panel, Chart 1). This is cause for concern as it has historically been a precursor to SPX pullbacks. Typically, stocks move in tandem, especially during risk off phases when everything becomes one big macro trade. Similarly, two Fridays ago we highlighted that the VIX and the S&P 500 were becoming positively correlated.2 The 20-day moving correlation between these two assets is shooting higher, approaching positive territory. Since late-2017 every time this correlation has hit the inflection point near the zero line, stocks has subsequently suffered a sizable setback (Chart 2). Chart 1Short-Term Downdraft Risks Are Rising Chart 2Watch SPX/VIX Correlation Tack on the public’s renewed interest in COVID-19 according to Google trends search results, and the odds are high that stocks will be range bound this summer (top panel, Chart 1). Beyond that, on a cyclical 9-12 month time horizon we remain constructive on the return prospects of the broad market. Turning over to profits on the eve of earnings season, our four-factor macro EPS growth model for the SPX has tentatively troughed at an extremely depressed level (Chart 3). Our SPX EPS estimate for next calendar year remains near $162/share which we consider trend EPS and was last hit both in 2018 and 2019.3 Chart 3Our EPS Growth Model Has Troughed Moreover, drilling beneath the surface, this week Table 1 updates the sector and subgroup EPS growth expectations. First we rank the GICS1 sectors and then within each sector we rank the subsectors, both times by absolute 12-month forward EPS growth using I/B/E/S/ data (see second columns, Table 1). The third columns in Table 1 show the sector growth rate relative to the SPX. Table 1Identifying S&P 500 Sector EPS Growth Leaders And Laggards The final columns highlight the trend in relative growth. In more detail, they compare the current relative growth rate to that of three months ago: a positive sign indicates an upgrade in analysts’ relative estimates and a negative sign a downgrade in analysts’ relative estimates. Tech, health care and communication services occupy the top ranks with positive EPS growth expectations, while financials, real estate and energy are forecast to contract in the coming 12 months and have fallen at the bottom of the table. Table 2Sector EPS And Market Cap Weights Given that the tech sector has the highest profit weight in the SPX roughly 23% projected for next year (Table 2) it has really helped the broad market’s profit growth recovery (Chart 4). As a reminder, we continue to employ a barbell portfolio approach and prefer defensive (software and services) to aggressive tech (hardware and equipment). On the flip side, financials have the third largest profit weight roughly 16% in the S&P 500, trailing tech and health care, and pose a big threat to overall SPX profits next year, especially if there are any hiccups with the reopening of the economy (Table 2). Worrisomely, investors are not voting with their feet and are doubting that financials profits will deliver as the market cap weight relative to the profit weight stands at negative 540bps.  Last Tuesday we downgraded the S&P financials sector to a benchmark allocation via trimming the S&P banks and S&P investment banks & brokers indexes to neutral and this week we delve into more details on these two early cyclical subgroups. Chart 4Earnings Finding Their Footing Downgrade Banks To Neutral… We were compelled to downgrade the S&P banks index to neutral last Tuesday in advance of the Fed’s stress test results. There are high odds that a number of banks will cut/suspend dividend payments in coming quarters in line with the Fed’s guidance in the latest round of stress test, especially if profits take a big hit as we expect. As a reminder, dividends are paid out below-the-line. Beyond the Fed’s stress tests and rising political risks,4 yellow flags are waving on all three key bank profit drivers, namely the price of credit, loan growth and credit quality. First, it is disconcerting that bank relative performance has really not taken the yield curve’s steepening cue and has negatively diverged as we showed last week.5 The year-to-date plummeting 10-year yield is weighing heavily on relative share prices (top panel, Chart 5). The transmission mechanism to bank profits of this lower price of credit is via the net interest margin (NIM) avenue (third panel, Chart 5). NIMs will remain under downward pressure as long at the 10-year Treasury yield stays suppressed owing to the Fed’s immense b/s expansion. The rising likelihood of yield curve control could keep interest rates on the long end of the curve depressed for a number of years similar to what happened between 1942 and 1951. Second, on the credit growth front news is equally worrisome. The widening in the junk spread signals loan growth blues in the quarters ahead (second panel, Chart 6). Despite the initial knee jerk reaction, primarily by corporations, of tapping existing C&I credit lines and causing a surge in bank credit growth, bankers are not willing to extend credit according to the latest Fed Senior Loan Officer survey (third panel, Chart 6). The same survey revealed that banks are reporting lower demand for credit across the board, warning that future loan growth will be anemic at best, especially given the collapse in our economic impulse indicator (bottom panel, Chart 6). Chart 5Bank Yellow Flags Waving Chart 6Loan Growth Will Suffer Finally, with regard to credit quality, delinquency and charge-off rates are all but certain to spike in the coming months. The third panel of Chart 7 highlights that historically all these credit quality gauges are lagging. However, the near vertical climb in the unemployment rate recently and persistently high continuing unemployment benefit claims near 20mn signal that non-performing loans (NPLs) are slated to soar in the back half of 2020 (bottom panel, Chart 7). True, the recent $2tn+ fiscal package is acting as a Band-Aid solution by putting money in unemployed consumers’ pockets, but when the money runs out on July 31, the going will get tough especially if Congress does not pass a new fiscal package. In addition, there are “extend and pretend” clauses in the existing relief package especially on the residential mortgage front that aim to help homeowners make ends meet. But, the longer workers stay out of the labor force the higher the chances that their skills atrophy making it difficult for them to return to work. As a result, foreclosure risk is on the rise. While residential real estate loans are no longer the largest category in bank loan books they still comprise a respectable 21% of total loans or $2.3tn, a souring housing market could spell trouble for banks (Chart 8). Chart 7Deteriorating Credit Quality Will Sink Profits Chart 8Housing Arrears Are A Risk Already, residential mortgage delinquencies are rising and in May surged to the highest level since November 2011 according to Bloomberg. 4.3mn residential real estate borrowers are in arrears (this delinquency count includes borrowers with forbearance agreements who missed payments) and “more than 8% of all US mortgages were past due or in foreclosure” according to Black Night Inc., a property information service. Tack on the shattering consumer confidence and the consumer loan category (credit card, auto and student debt) is also under risk of severe credit quality deterioration (fourth panel, Chart 7). The commercial real estate (CRE) side of loan books is also likely to bleed. Anecdotes where landlords are demanding past due rent payment from tenants are mushrooming, at a time when the same landlords refuse to service their loan obligations. According to TREPP, CMBS delinquencies are skyrocketing across different REIT lines of business. Importantly, CRE loans add up to $2.4tn on commercial bank balance sheets or roughly 22% of total loans. Encouragingly, in Q1 banks started to aggressively provision for steep credit losses with commercial bank loan loss reserves now climbing just shy of $180bn according to the latest FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (second panel, Chart 7). This figure is almost twice as high as noncurrent loans and represents a healthy reserve coverage ratio. However, our fear is that if history at least rhymes NPLs will sling shot higher (bottom panel, Chart 7) rendering loan loss reserves insufficient. Putting this provisioning number in context, according to the Fed’s most adverse stress test scenarios banks’ losses could spring to $700bn: “In aggregate, loan losses for the 34 banks ranged from $560bn to $700bn”.6 As a result, banks will have to further provision for futures losses and thus take an additional hit to profitability. Our bank earnings growth model does an excellent job in capturing all these moving parts and warns of a contraction in profit in the back half of the year (bottom panel, Chart 9). Nevertheless, before getting too bearish on banks, there two key offsetting factors. Relative valuations are bombed out, signaling that most of the bad news is likely reflected in prices (bottom panel, Chart 5). Finally, technicals are also extremely oversold. The second panel of Chart 5 shows that relative momentum is as bad as it gets. Netting it all out, on all three key profit fronts – price of credit, loan growth and credit quality – banks are starting to show signs of stress and compel us to downgrade exposure to neutral. Chart 9Dividend Cuts Are Looming …And Move To The Sidelines On Investment Banks & Brokers The S&P investment banks & brokers (IBB) group has a similar investment profile to the S&P banks index. But, given its more cyclical nature it typically oscillates violently around banks’ relative performance. Thus last Tuesday, we were also compelled to move to the sidelines on this higher beta financials subgroup.7 The COVID-19 accelerated recession has not only mothballed potential M&A deals that were in the works, but also a number of previously announced deals have been canceled. In addition, the outlook for M&A is grim, at least until the dust really settles from the coronavirus pandemic (second panel, Chart 10), weighing heavily on the sector’s profit prospects. While “Robinhood” (retail investor) trading stories abound, margin debt remains moribund and continues to contract, despite the V-shaped recovery in all major US stock markets since the March 23 lows (third panel, Chart 10). This coincident indicator speaks volumes in the near term direction of the broad market and any sustained contraction in trading related debt uptake will likely dent IBB profitability. According to the American Association of Individual Investors bullish retail investors have been absent from this quarter’s massive stock market rally and equity mutual fund and exchange traded fund flows corroborate this message (fourth panel, Chart 10). With regard to cyclicality, IBB are extremely quick to prune labor in times of duress and aggressively add to headcount during expansions. Recent trimming of IBB input costs signal that this industry is retrenching as it is trying to adjust cost structures to lower revenue run rates (bottom panel, Chart 10). Chart 10Diminishing Activities Are Profit Sapping Related to the cyclical nature of the IBB industry, an accelerating stock-to-bond ratio has been synonymous with relative share outperformance and vice versa. In early June we turned cautious on the broad market’s near-term return prospects primarily on the back of rising (geo)political risks. The implication is that a lateral move in the broad market would push down the S/B ratio and weigh on relative share prices (Chart 11). However, there are some offsets that prevent us from turning outright bearish on this niche early-cyclical group. First relative valuations are extremely alluring. On a price-to-book basis IBB traded recently at 0.8x in absolute terms and at a steep 68% discount to the broad market (bottom panel, Chart 12). Chart 11Move To The Sidelines On This Highly Cyclical Industry Chart 12Some Positive Offsets Second, volatility has gone haywire since late-February and it remains elevated with a VIX reading still north of 30. This is a fertile environment for IBB trading desks and should translate into higher profits (second panel, Chart 12). Third, equity trading volumes have exploded. True, volumes spike on downdrafts, but they have remained at an historically high level recently underscoring that IBB trading desk should be minting money (third panel, Chart 12). Adding it all up, a dearth of M&A deals, a steep fall in margin debt and declining equity flows into mutual funds and exchange traded funds and potential dividend cuts/suspensions compelled us to trim exposure in the S&P investment banks & brokers index to neutral. Bottom Line: Downgrade the S&P banks index to neutral for a loss of 32.4% since inception. Trim the S&P investment banks & brokers index to neutral for a loss of 24% since inception. These moves also push the S&P financials sector to a benchmark allocation. The ticker symbols for the stocks in these indexes are: BLBG S5BANKX – JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, TFC, PNC, FRC, FITB, MTB, KEY, SIVB, RF, CFG, HBAN, ZION, CMA, PBCT, and BLBG S5INBK – GS, MS, SCHW, ETFC, RJF, respectively.   Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Insight Report, “Unresponsive” dated June 23, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Insight Report, “Tales Of The Tape” dated June 19, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 3    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “Gauging Fair Value ” dated April 27, 2020, and BCA US Equity Strategy Special Report, “Debunking Earnings” dated May 19, 2020, both available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 4    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Insight Report, “Unresponsive” dated June 23, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 5    Ibid. 6    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20200625c.htm 7    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Insight Report, “Unresponsive” dated June 23, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.   Current Recommendations Current Trades Strategic (10-Year) Trade Recommendations Size And Style Views June 3, 2019 Stay neutral cyclicals over defensives (downgrade alert)  January 22, 2018 Favor value over growth April 28, 2020  Stay neutral large over small caps  June 11, 2018 Long the BCA Millennial basket  The ticker symbols are: (AAPL, AMZN, UBER, HD, LEN, MSFT, NFLX, SPOT, TSLA, V).

Highlights There are no atheists in foxholes, and no Austrians ahead of this election: Republican senators and White House staffers may grumble about giveaways, but they cannot risk being painted as the Grinch who Stole Essential Services in the homestretch of the campaign. A Biden victory will mean a leftward swing: Our geopolitical strategists believe markets are underestimating the extent to which a Biden victory would lead to a less friendly backdrop for investment capital. Tensions with China are likely to escalate: China-bashing is popular with the electorate, and a desperate White House may turn up the heat to recover its standing in the polls. The battle for great-power supremacy remains unresolved. The pandemic is causing the retreat from globalization to accelerate before our eyes: Curtailing offshoring and building new redundancies into supply chains will weigh on corporate profit margins and undermine earnings growth. Feature We had the pleasure of sitting down with Matt Gertken, the leader of BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service, for a webcast last week. The timing could not have been better, as the pandemic has thrust Washington into the spotlight and the campaign will keep it there until Election Day. This report blends the US Investment Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy teams’ takes on the broad themes we discussed and is a starting point for thinking about the 2020 election and its financial market implications. We will return to the topic throughout the summer and early fall as developments unfold. Republicans in the Senate can talk tough now, but they will have to knuckle under if they want to keep their majority (and the White House). Future Fiscal Largesse Though the scale of the CARES Act was huge, powering the United States to the head of the global class in terms of fiscal stimulus (Chart 1), both parties were discussing the next phase of COVID-19 relief before the ink on the bill was dry. Two months later, that momentum has stalled as Republicans have begun to push back against a fifth wave of spending (the CARES Act was the third). Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has taken direct aim at the $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit supplement, scheduled to expire at the end of July, calling unemployment benefits in excess of pay an “aberration,” and pledging that the program will be extended “over [his] dead body.” Chart 1A Massive Amount Of Fiscal Stimulus That benefit may be generous on a Scandinavian scale,1 but along with the direct $1,200 payments sent to nearly two-thirds of households, it is helping the economy withstand deleterious social distancing measures. Shoring up the finances of vulnerable households will help them stay current on their auto loans and rent or mortgage payments, staving off a wave of repossessions, evictions and foreclosures, and preventing a cascading chain of defaults that would intensify the economic pressure. Table 1The Battleground States Need Help Graham’s rhetorical flourishes aside, Republicans cannot hand the Democrats an opening to cast them as Scrooge when the campaign intensifies in late summer. Trump’s 2016 victory turned on flipping Florida and Rust Belt stalwarts Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin from the Democrats, and all those states are in play again except Ohio (Chart 2). Unemployment is elevated in the battleground Rust Belt states, and we think it must be higher than the official measure in a state as dependent on tourism as Florida (Table 1).2 Channeling the Grinch by taking unemployment benefits and essential workers away from put-upon voters in pivotal states3 is not a winning electoral strategy. Caught between an aid proposal that both Democrats and the White House want, Republican senators will ultimately have to concede. Chart 2The Midwest And Florida Are Crucial Rounding Out The Democratic Ticket Chart 3A New Obama-Biden Ticket? Presumptive Democratic nominee Biden is considering the pool of candidates to fill the number two spot on the ticket. Vice-presidential picks generate a lot of discussion when they’re made, but they typically have little influence on election outcomes. Among this year’s crop of contenders for the presidential nomination, only Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) could fulfill the typical VP function of helping to land a swing state. Klobuchar would likely appeal to soccer moms and suburban independents capable of being swayed back to the Democrats, but her moderate sensibilities wouldn’t expand Biden’s appeal to the party’s progressive wing or inspire younger voters. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) could help attract progressives and younger voters who see Biden as the status quo, but her antipathy toward big business could turn off swing voters and she would come at the cost of a senate seat.4 Voters have an unfavorable view of Kamala Harris (D-CA) and her contentious exchanges with Biden in the early debates could make for an awkward pairing. Stacey Abrams has recently entered the picture and would be an asset if she were able to increase African-American voter turnout, but she has a thin government resume. Michelle Obama is the only choice who would make a splash and significantly boost Biden’s prospects. She is viewed way more favorably than the rest of the field (Chart 3), would solidify Biden’s connection with Barack Obama, and increase turnout among the progressive, female, and minority voters the ticket needs to tip the scales in its favor. Unfortunately for the Democrats, she has unequivocally indicated that she does not wish to run. Biden has said he’d welcome her onto the ticket in a second, and he will likely put off his choice until efforts to draft her definitively fail. Michelle Obama could shake up the race if the Democrats can convince her to join the ticket. Investors should keep an eye on the Democratic ticket. Joe Biden will turn 78 in November. He will be a one-term president if he wins, and his public appearances suggest that he’s slower on the draw than he used to be. He may rely on his second-in-command much more than the average president and she will immediately become the odds-on favorite for the 2024 nomination. If the Democrats gain control of the Senate alongside a Biden victory, as our Geopolitical Strategy service projects, financial markets may have to begin discounting a future with materially less friendly regulatory and tax policy. China Tensions Will Not Go Away Chart 4The Middle Kingdom Is Out Of Favor Our geopolitical strategists have long flagged US-China tensions as the paramount geopolitical flashpoint. The only standalone nations with superpower potential are engaged in a long-term struggle for hegemony. The trade tensions that waxed and waned across all of 2019 were only one act of a longer-running play. Investors should not have been lulled into thinking the Phase 1 trade agreement would end the friction between the two countries. Politicians can be counted upon to give their constituents what they want, especially during election campaigns. China’s unpopularity with US voters has reached a new high in the wake of the pandemic (Chart 4), and candidates are likely to compete with one another to appear tougher on China. Between now and the election, there is a possibility that tensions could ramp up considerably. If the president finds his re-election prospects suffering from the COVID-19 outbreak and soaring unemployment, he may look to transform himself into a wartime president, boldly asserting American interests globally, and serially baiting an unpopular foe like China. Profit Margin Pressures Are Coming Except when interrupted by recessions, S&P 500 profit margins have climbed steadily higher since the early ‘90s (Chart 5). Several factors contributed to the increase in corporate profitability: the PC revolution, outsourcing, China’s entry into the WTO, the declining power of labor unions and, punctuating the rise in 2018, the 40% cut in the top marginal corporate tax rate (from 35% to 21%). If the Democrats take the White House and the Senate, we expect that corporate tax rates will swiftly rise. The top marginal rate may not go all the way back to 35%, but it has room to rise from its lowest level since before the US entered World War II (Chart 6), and any increase will represent a profit headwind. Re-configuring supply chains will reduce margins. Higher taxes will, too, if Democrats can take the White House and the Senate. Chart 5Corporate Profit Margins Are Vulnerable Chart 6A Democratic Sweep Will Lead To Higher Taxes Our Geopolitical Strategy service identified peak globalization as an important theme not long after it began publishing in 2012. The outbreak of the pandemic seems as if it will accelerate the retreat from globalization (Chart 7), and any reduction in outsourcing is likely to weigh on profit margins until automated inputs can supplant more expensive domestic labor. Onshoring is not the only factor likely to increase corporate costs after the pandemic, however. Companies are likely to seek to diversify their supply chains so that they are not so reliant on a single country or supplier. Building up redundancies within supply chains will make those chains more stable, but it will also increase costs. Chart 7The Pandemic Is Accelerating The Trend Away From Globalization A Biden victory is not the only source of election downside. If the president wins re-election, the odds of tariff conflicts with Europe will rise significantly. Unconstrained by having to contest another election, the administration could ratchet up the pressure on Europe, prompting certain retaliation from Brussels. Our strategists see a greater chance for trade peace, ex-China, if Biden captures the White House. Investment Implications The overriding questions on investors’ minds are why the stock market and the economy have parted company so decisively and how long they can continue to diverge. Our explanation turns on policy: the Fed has intervened mightily to hold down Treasury yields and keep financial markets functioning, while Congress has thrown open the federal coffers to keep laid-off workers and suddenly teetering businesses afloat. The social distancing measures imposed to slow the spread of COVID-19 caused economic activity to crater. Monetary and fiscal policy have been deployed to build a bridge over that crater, lest capital, people and businesses disappear into it like the Union troops at Petersburg. Ever since they began to rally in late March, financial markets have focused exclusively on the bridge. The Fed has the capacity and the will to install more monetary planks should the crater prove to be wider than initially estimated. Congress’ commitment is shakier, but the election will compel Republicans to provide more funding should it become necessary to prevent a dire outcome. The virus alone will dictate how long the bridge will have to be in place and investors can only guess at the virus' future course. Given the stock market’s pattern of surging on positive preliminary data for potential treatments or vaccines and barely easing when those data are shown to hold far less promise, it appears that its expectations are skewed to the right-hand side of the distribution. There appears to be considerable room for disappointment on the public health front. The possibility that markets are giving short shrift to a robust second wave of infections, or overestimating the speed with which a vaccine can be developed and distributed, is not a reason to short equities or be underweight them in balanced portfolios, though. The rally has been too strong, and there is a subset of right-tail outcomes that could well come to pass. We continue to expect a correction, and are carrying excess cash to prepare for it, but we are maintaining a neutral tactical outlook in the event of a positive surprise. We are optimistic about equities’ prospects over a twelve-month timeframe. Our rationale is that easy monetary policy and generous fiscal spending will outlive the social distancing measures they were prescribed to treat. Low interest rates, ample liquidity and pumped-up aggregate demand form a highly supportive backdrop for equities and should help them handily outperform bonds. The difference between our outlook and the equity market’s may simply be a matter of timing; the resurgent S&P 500 seems to be skipping ahead to the twelve-month conclusion and looking through the uncertainties that will arise along the way. The bears face daunting odds if Congress approves a meaningful fifth phase of fiscal stimulus: every trillion dollars extends the dark US bar in Chart 1 by another five percentage points. TIPS will eventually be the asset of choice when the debt has to be repaid but, in the meantime, equities have undeniable appeal.   Doug Peta, CFA Chief US Investment Strategist dougp@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 According to a new working paper, the median unemployed worker is eligible for benefit payments equivalent to 134% of his/her pre-layoff compensation. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27216 Accessed May 26, 2020. 2 Nevada, home to the Magic Kingdom for adults, has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (28.2%). 3 Most state constitutions mandate balanced budgets. In the absence of federal aid, local school, fire, police and public hospital payrolls will have to be pared in response to declining sales and income tax revenues. 4 Massachusetts’ Republican governor would get to appoint her replacement until a special election could be held.

Special Report

Feature The SPX suffered its third 5.3-7.3% pullback since early April last week, which we deem a healthy development as markets cannot go up in a straight line. While there is a chance this latest pullback may morph into a correction, our sense is that equities will remain range bound in the near-term consolidating the vast gains made since the March 23 lows. Now that earnings season is practically over and macro data will remain backward looking, a large void signals that technicals will dominate trading. On that front, this looming lateral move will likely confine the SPX between the critical 50-day and 200-day moving averages – a roughly 10% range between 2,712 and 3,000 – until a catalyst breaks the stalemate (top panel, Chart 1A). With regard to the cyclical outlook, ultra-accommodative fiscal and monetary policies remain the dominant macro themes, and underpin our sanguine equity market view for the next year. Chart 1AConsolidating Gains Dollar The Reflator Importantly, King Dollar is a key macro variable that we are closely monitoring and as we highlighted last week, the Fed is indirectly aiming at jawboning the greenback.1 US dollar based liquidity is one of the most important determinants/drivers of global growth. The longer US dollar liquidity gets replenished, the more upward pressure it will put on SPX momentum and SPX EPS (Chart 1B). Sloshing US dollar based liquidity will serve as a much needed catalyst for a global growth recovery. Chart 1BHeed The Message From US Dollar Liquidity: Chart Of The Year Candidate The Yield Curve, Interests Rates And Profits Meanwhile, the yield curve, in fact a number of different yield curve slopes, troughed prior to the SPX in March, preserving its leading properties both near equity market tops and bottoms (middle & bottom panels, Chart 1A). The Fed orchestrated the steepening of the yield curve – which is typical during recessions – with the two preemptive cuts in March. Crucially, the yield curve is signaling that in the back half of the year SPX profits will also trough. True, a profit shortfall is upon us in Q2, and the steeper the fall, the higher the chance of a V-shaped recovery, owing to base effects (yield curve shown advanced, Chart 2). Chart 2Steep Yield Curve Slope Will Reflate Profits Encouragingly, the Fed reiterated last week that it will remain ultra-accommodative. While it will refrain from delving into NIRP, QE5 can expand anew and sustain the perching of the 2-year and even the 5-year and 7-year Treasury yields near zero. In fact, the shadow fed funds rate is already below zero as we highlighted last week.2 This monetary backdrop coupled with rising fiscal deficits as far as the eye can see – which will put upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields – will ensure a steep yield curve, and thus engineer a profit recovery (Chart 2). With regard to the interplay of interest rates and profit growth, the two are tightly inversely correlated (Chart 3). Empirical evidence suggests that since the mid-1980s profit growth is the mirror image of the year-over-year change in 7-year Treasury yields, albeit with a significant lag. Chart 3Interest Rate Pummeling Is A Boon For EPS What EPS Growth Is Discounted? Currently, if the relationship between profits and yields were to hold, then SPX EPS growth would stage a sizable come back in 2021. Chart 4 depicts the sell side’s quarterly EPS forecasts all the way to end 2021. Indeed, following a steep contraction, a brisk V-shaped profit recovery is looming in 2021 as we first argued three weeks ago that “historical precedents show an explosive year-over-year growth increase in EPS from recessionary troughs”.3 In more detail, Chart 5 breaks down 12-month forward EPS growth per sector. Tech comes out on top and by a wide margin with a near double-digit profit growth rate in absolute terms. This gulf is even more pronounced relative to the contracting SPX EPS growth rate. In fact, tech relative profit growth just reached the highest level since 2004 and explains the broad market’s tech dependence. As a reminder, tech market cap is back to the 2018 peak despite the fact the GOOGL and FB have now moved to the newly formed S&P communication services index. If one were to add the pair and AMZN back to the tech sector’s weight, it would comprise over 36% of the SPX, higher even than the dotcom bubble era (Chart 6)! Chart 4V-Shaped Profit Recovery Chart 5Tech… Chart 6…Reigns Supreme Tech Titans Digression A brief digression is in order as it pertains to the tech titans. We have been inundated with requests recently on the subject of valuations and the concentration of returns in the top five SPX stocks. We first commented on this in January, and reiterate today that the current tech sector’s supposed overvaluation is nowhere near the dotcom excesses .4 Back then, the top five SPX stocks commanded a forward P/E over 60, but today’s valuation pales in comparison with the late-1990s, as the equivalent P/E is roughly half that multiple (please refer to Chart 2 of the January 27, 2020 Weekly Report). Why? Because at the turn of the millennium, tech stocks had very little earnings to show for, but now the tech sector has the largest profit weight among its GICS1 peers. Thus, tech stocks trade at a modest 9% premium to the broad market whereas in 1999 they were changing hands at more than twice the SPX multiple (Chart 7). Chart 8 attempts to shed more light on the subject. The top panel shows the overall SPX market cap and also excluding the top five stocks. Then we subtract the top five stocks’ forward P/E from the broad market and show where the S&P 500 ex-top five stocks P/E trades (second panel, Chart 8). Since the FB IPO, these stocks have indeed increased their influence on the broad market’s valuation (third panel, Chart 8). Chart 7What Relative Overvaluation? Chart 8Top Five Are Pricey, But For Good Reason Sectorial Profit Growth Breakdown Circling back to the breakdown of 12-month forward EPS growth per sector, traditional defensive sectors (utilities, staples and health care) all enjoy positive 12-month forward profit growth in absolute terms, and so do communication services that just kissed off the zero line. All other sectors are contracting at differing degrees (Chart 5). On a longer-term basis, as expected no GICS1 sector is slated to contract, but their five-year growth rates are widely dispersed. Consumer discretionary, real estate, materials and tech occupy the top ranks with double digit growth rates, while utilities, consumer staples, energy, industrials and financials are in mid-single digits and at the bottom of the pit. Communication services and health care hover in the middle, on a par with the broad market (Chart 9). Chart 9Long-Term Growth Has Reset Lower Higher Profits Are Synonymous With Higher Returns Intuitively, the higher the forward profit growth rate, the higher each sector’s trailing return. Chart 10 depicts this positive correlation on the GICS1 sectors and corroborates that the laggard energy sector has the lowest year-to-date return, whereas tech stocks lead the pack. Importantly, SPX sector profit weights are extremely important. Chart 11 ranks the GICS1 sectors 12-month forward profit weights. Tech, health care and financials comprise roughly 60% of total S&P 500 earnings for the coming year. Whereas the drubbing in the energy sector (83% projected EPS contraction) has drifted into oblivion within the SPX context and has a mere 0.5% profit weight (Chart 11). Chart 10Higher Growth = Higher Returns Chart 11Top three Comprise 60% Of Profit Weight Bottom Line: While the top three sectors inherently carry the bulk of the risk on the SPX earnings front courtesy of the high concentration, our sense is that both tech (neutral) and health care (overweight) will deliver according to the messages from our macro EPS growth models (Chart 12). Financials (overweight) profits are a question mark, and therefore pose the greatest risk to our still constructive 9-12 month broad equity market view.     Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com Chart 12EPS Growth Models Emit Positive Signals   Footnotes 1     Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “The Bottomless Punchbowl” dated May 11, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2     Ibid. 3    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “Gauging Fair Value” dated April 27, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.          4    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Reports, “Three EPS Scenarios” dated January 13, 2020 and “When The Music Stops...” dated January 27, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.  

Highlights Portfolio Strategy We remain comfortable with a 3,000 SPX fair value estimate backed up by our DDM, forward ERP and sensitivity analyses. The path of least resistance remains higher for the SPX on a 9-12 month cyclical time horizon. The oil price collapse is eliciting a massive supply response that should help rebalance the oil markets, and coupled with glimmers of hope on reopening the economy, it should put a floor under oil prices. CB are injecting unprecedented amounts of liquidity in the markets and at some point this will lead to a growth revival which is negative for gold prices. Taken together, and given all-time lows in relative valuations and technicals, we are compelled to go long US oil & gas exploration & production stocks at the expense of global gold miners. We are putting the S&P managed health care index on downgrade alert to reflect the risk that rising unemployment poses to health care enrollment. Falling interest rates also weigh on industry profitability at a time when relative valuations are perky and technicals are overbought. Recent Changes Initiate a long S&P oil & gas exploration & production/short global gold miners pair trade, today. Table 1 Feature Equities marked time last week, despite the passage of a fresh mini fiscal 2.0 package and efforts to restart the economy in parts of the globe. In contrast, news that President Trump may delay reopening the economy along with negative crude oil prices weighed heavily on the S&P 500. Nevertheless, energy equities fared very well, defying the oil market carnage and impressively relative energy share prices have led the SPX trough (Chart 1). We remain constructive on the broad equity market on a cyclical 9-12 month time horizon. Following up from last week’s SPX dividend discount model (DDM) update, we complement our research with two additional ways of approximating the SPX fair value: EPS and multiple sensitivity analysis and a forward equity risk premium (ERP) analysis. While at the nadir the stock market priced in a collapse in EPS close to $104 for the current year (please refer to our analysis here1), in 2021 EPS can return to their long-term trend line near $162. At first sight this spike in EPS seems unrealistic. However, here are two salient points: Chart 1Energy As A Leading Indicator First, hard-hit COVID-19 subsectors are a small fraction of SPX profits and market capitalization. In other words, the S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index and has already filtered out hotels, cruises, restaurants, homebuilders, autos, auto parts, airlines, and even energy as they comprise a small part of the SPX. Second, historical precedents show an explosive year-over-year growth increase in EPS from recessionary troughs. In fact, the steeper the collapse the more violent the rebound. Hence, our recovery EPS estimate is more or less in line with empirical evidence (Chart 2). Chart 2Violently Oscillating EPS For comparison purposes, the Street is still penciling in EPS near $135 and $170 for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Table 2 shows our sensitivity analysis and an SPX ending value of just above 2,900 using $162 EPS and an 18x forward multiple as our base case. This multiple is slightly below the historical time trend using IBES data dating back to 1979, and represents our fair value PE estimate (please see page 17 of our April 6, 2020 webcast2 available here). Table 2SPX EPS & Multiple Sensitivity With regard to the forward ERP analysis, our starting point is an equilibrium ERP of 440 basis points (bps). The way we derived this number was using the last decade’s average observed forward ERP (middle panel, Chart 3). We used to think equilibrium ERP was closer to 200bps. However, if the Fed’s extraordinary – and unorthodox – measures since the onset of the GFC did not manage to bring down the ERP (middle panel, Chart 3), then in the current recession with uncertainty on the rise, it only makes sense to model a higher than previously thought equilibrium ERP (middle panel, Chart 4). Chart 3The Forward Equity Risk Premium… Chart 4…Will Recede And, just to put the forward ERP in perspective, keep in mind that it jumped from 350bps to just below 600bps year-to-date (Chart 4)! A doubling in the 10-year US treasury yield to 120bps is another assumption we are making along with using our trend EPS estimate of $162 for calendar 2021. Backing out price results in a roughly 2,900 SPX fair value estimate (Table 3). Table 3Forward Equity Risk Premium Analysis We remain comfortable with a 3,000 SPX fair value estimate backed up by our DDM, forward ERP and sensitivity analyses. Despite the much needed current consolidation phase, the path of least resistance is higher for the SPX on a 9-12 month cyclical time horizon. This week we are putting a health care subgroup on downgrade alert and initiating a high-octane intra-commodity market-neutral pair trade to benefit from the looming handoff of liquidity to growth. Time To Buy “Black Gold” At The Expense Of Gold Bullion We have been long and wrong on the S&P energy sector and its subcomponents, as neither we nor our Commodity & Energy Strategists anticipated -$40/bbl WTI crude oil futures prices. Nevertheless, as the energy sector is drifting into oblivion within the SPX – it is now the second smallest GICS1 sector with a 2.77% market cap weight slightly higher than materials – we think that WTI May contract reaching -$40/bbl marked the recessionary trough. Similar to the early-2018 “volmageddon” incident when a volatility exchanged trade product blew up and got dismantled and marked that cyclical peak in the VIX, the recent near collapse of USO and shuttering of another oil related levered exchange traded product serve as the anecdotes that likely mark the low in oil prices. True, negative WTI futures prices are no longer taboo and the CME prepared for them by reprograming its systems to handle negative futures prices, thus they can happen again. With regard to the significance of anecdotes in market tops and bottoms, another interesting one that comes to mind is from our early days at BCA in May of 2008 where we worked for the Global Investment Strategy team as a senior analyst. Back then, we vividly remember a Goldman Sachs analyst slapping a $150/bbl target on crude oil,3 and only days later in unprecedented hubris Gazprom’s CEO upped the ante with an apocalyptic $250/bbl prediction.4 This prompted us to create our first mania chart at BCA with crude oil prices on June 20, 2008 (please see chart 16 from that report available here5), which proved timely as oil prices peaked less than a month later at $147/bbl. Today, we are compelled to perform the opposite exercise and run a regression of previous equity sector market crashes on the S&P oil & gas exploration & production index (E&P, that most closely resembles WTI crude oil prices) in order to gauge a recovery profile. Chart 5 suggests that if the anecdotes are accurate in calling the trough in oil prices, then E&P stocks should enjoy a steep price appreciation trajectory in the coming two years. Beyond the overweights we continue to hold in the S&P energy sector and all the subgroups we cover, we believe that there is an exploitable trading opportunity to go long S&P E&P/short global gold miners (Chart 6). Chart 5Heed The US Equity Strategy’s Crash Index Message This high-octane trade is extremely volatile, but the recent carnage in the oil markets offers a great entry point for investors that can stomach heightened volatility, with an enticing risk/reward tradeoff. The gold/oil ratio (GOR) is trading at 112 as we went to press and we think that it will have to settle down. The Fed is doing its utmost to dampen volatility, and historically, suppressed volatility has been synonymous with a falling GOR (Chart 7). As a result, our pair trade will have to at least climb back to its recent breakdown point, representing a near 34% return (top panel, Chart 6). Chart 6Buy E&P Stocks At The Expense Of Gold Miners From a macro perspective the time to buy oil equities at the expense of gold miners is when there is a handoff from liquidity to growth (bottom panel, Chart 6). While we are still in the liquidity injection phase we deem the Fed and other Central Banks (CB) are committed to do “whatever it takes” to sustain the proper functioning of the markets. Therefore, at some point likely in the back half of the year when the economy slowly reopens, all these CB programs will bear fruit and growth will recover violently (middle panel, Chart 6), especially given our long-held view that the US will avoid a Great Depression. Chart 7VIX Says Sell The GOR With regard to balancing the oil market, nothing like price to change behavior. In more detail, the recent collapse in oil prices will work like magic to bring some semblance of normality back to the crude oil market, as it will naturally cause a shut in of production; there is no doubt about it. Not only has the supply response commenced, but it is also accelerating to the downside as the plunging rig count depicts (Chart 8). This will lead to some longer-term bullish oil price ramifications. As a reminder, while demand drives prices in the short-term, supply dictates the oil price direction in the long-term. Chart 8Oil Price Collapse Induced Supply Response Turning over to gold and gold miners, all this liquidity is forcing investors to chase bullion and related equities higher. Tack on that every CB the world over is trying to debase their currency, and factors are falling into place for sustainable flows into gold and gold mining equities. However, there are high odds that all this money sloshing around will eventually generate growth especially in the western hemisphere that is slowly contemplating of restarting its economic engines. As a result, real yields will rise which in turn is negative for gold and gold miners (Chart 9). Finally, relative valuations and technicals could not be more depressed, which is contrarily positive (Chart 10). Chart 9Liquidity To Growth Handoff Beneficiary Netting it all out, the oil price collapse is eliciting a massive supply response that should help rebalance the oil markets, and coupled with glimmers of hope on reopening the economy, it should put a floor under oil prices. CB are injecting unprecedented amounts of liquidity in the markets and at some point this will lead to a growth revival which is negative for gold prices. Taken together, and given all-time lows in relative valuations and technicals, we are compelled to go long US oil & gas exploration & production equities at the expense of global gold miners. Chart 10As Bad As It Gets Bottom Line: Initiate a long US oil & gas exploration & production/short global gold miners pair trade today. The ticker symbols for the stocks in these indexes are: BLBG: BLBG: S5OILP – COP, EOG, HES, COG, MRO, NBL, CXO, APA, PXD, DVN, FANG, (or XOP:US exchange traded fund) and GDX:US exchange traded fund, respectively. Put HMOs On Downgrade Alert We upgraded the S&P managed health care index last April, the Monday after Bernie Sanders re-introduced his “Medicare For All” bill.6 Our thesis was that the drubbing in this sector was a massive overreaction and we, along with our Geopolitical Strategists, thought that he would have low chances of clinching the Democratic Presidential candidacy and threatening to render HMOs obsolete. A year later, this thesis has panned out and the S&P managed care index is up 30% versus the S&P 500. Nevertheless we do not want to overstay our welcome and are putting it on our downgrade watch list and instituting a 5% rolling stop in order to protect gains in our portfolio (top panel, Chart 11). Relative share prices have broken out to fresh all-time highs, not only courtesy of a more moderate Democratic Presidential candidate, but also because a significant boost to margins and profits is looming. The delayed effect of fewer elective procedures (i.e. hip and knee replacements and even non-life threatening bypass surgeries) owing to the coronavirus pandemic will result in a sizable, yet temporary, margin expansion phase (second panel, Chart 11). Tack on, still roughly 20% health care insurance CPI and the outlook for HMO margins and profits further improves (bottom panel, Chart 11). Nevertheless, there are some negative offsets. Over the past 5 weeks unemployment insurance claims have soared to 26.5mn, erasing all the employment gains of the past decade, thus private insurance enrollment will take a sizable hit (top panel, Chart 12). Chart 11The Good… Chart 12…And The Bad Moreover on the income side, the premia that HMOs take in are typically invested in the risk free asset and given the two month fall from 1.5% to around 0.6% in the 10-year Treasury yield, managed health care earnings will also, at the margin, suffer a setback (bottom panel, Chart 12). True, the HMOs earnings juggernaut has been one of a kind over the past decade underpinning relative share prices (top panel, Chart 13). However, we reckon a lot of the good news and very little if any of the bad news is priced in extremely optimistic relative profit expectation going out five years (middle panel, Chart 13). Keep in mind that the bulk of the M&A activity is behind this industry as the dust has now settled from the previous two year frenzied pace of inter and intra industry combinations (top panel, Chart 14). Chart 13Lots Of Good News Is Already Priced In Chart 14Preparing Not To Overstay Our Welcome Finally, relative technicals are in overbought territory close to one standard deviation above the historical mean and relative valuations are also becoming a tad too lofty for our liking (middle & bottom panel, Chart 14). Adding it all up, we are putting the S&P managed health care index on downgrade alert to reflect the risk that rising unemployment poses to health care enrollment. Falling interest rates also weigh on industry profitability at a time when relative valuations are perky and technicals are overbought. Bottom Line: Stay overweight the S&P managed health care index, but it is now on our downgrade watch list. We are also instituting a rolling 5% stop as a portfolio management tool in order to protect profits. Stay tuned. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5MANH-UNH, ANTM, HUM, CNC.   Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1     Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “What Is Priced In?” dated March 30, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2     https://www.icastpro.ca/events/bca/2020/04/06/us-equity-market-what-the-future-holds/play/16925 3    https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/business/21oil.html 4    https://www.reuters.com/article/gazprom-ceo/russias-gazprom-sees-higher-gas-prices-ceo-idUSL1148506420080611 5    Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Strategy Outlook - PART 1 - Third Quarter 2008” dated June 20, 2008, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 6    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “Show Me The Profits” dated April 15, 2019, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.   Current Recommendations Current Trades Strategic (10-Year) Trade Recommendations Size And Style Views June 3, 2019 Stay neutral cyclicals over defensives (downgrade alert)  January 22, 2018 Favor value over growth May 10, 2018 Favor large over small caps (Stop 10%) June 11, 2018 Long the BCA Millennial basket  The ticker symbols are: (AAPL, AMZN, UBER, HD, LEN, MSFT, NFLX, SPOT, TSLA, V).

Dear Client, Please join me and my fellow BCA Strategists Caroline Miller and Arthur Budaghyan for a live webcast tomorrow, Friday, April 24 at 8:00 AM EDT (1:00 PM BST, 2:00 PM CEST, 8:00 PM HKT) where we will discuss the outlook for developed and emerging market equities over the immediate (0-3 month) and cyclical (12 month) horizon. In lieu of our regular report next week, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will discuss the global fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will provide some perspective on whether the response will be enough to prevent an "L-shaped" economic outcome. I hope you find the report insightful. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights Theoretically, the pandemic could raise the long-term fair value of equities – as proxied by the present value of future cash flows – if it causes the discount rate to fall by more than enough to offset the decline in corporate earnings. While such a seemingly bizarre outcome is not our base case, it cannot be easily dismissed, especially since the evidence suggests that real long-term interest rates have fallen a lot more since the start of the pandemic than have earnings estimates. We consider a number of challenges to this claim, including: current earnings estimates are too optimistic; long-term interest rates are being distorted by QE and other factors; and the equity risk premium will be higher in a post-pandemic world. While all these counterarguments have merit, none of them are airtight. Even if the pandemic ultimately boosts stock prices, the path to new highs will be a bumpy one. In the near term, a slew of bad economic data could cause another bout of market turbulence. Nevertheless, over a 12-month horizon, investors should continue to overweight equities relative to cash and bonds. The plunge in front-end oil futures this week was a timely reminder of the extent to which the pandemic has suppressed crude demand. Oil prices should bounce back later this year as global growth recovers, the dollar weakens, and more oil supply is taken offline. A Counterintuitive Scenario Chart 1EPS Growth Scenarios Could the pandemic end up raising the long-term fair value of equities – as proxied by the present value of future cash flows – compared with a scenario in which the virus never emerged? Such an outcome sounds far-fetched but could occur if the pandemic causes the discount rate to fall by more than enough to offset the decline in corporate earnings. How likely is such an outcome? To get a sense of the answer, let us consider a simple example where, prior to the pandemic, cash flows to shareholders were expected to grow by 2% per annum, the risk-free interest rate was 2%, and the equity risk premium was 5% (implying a discount rate of 7%). Let us suppose that the pandemic temporarily reduces corporate profits by 60% in 2020, 40% in 2021, and 20% in 2022 relative to the aforementioned baseline, with earnings returning to trend beyond then (Chart 1, Scenario 1). All things equal, an earnings shock of this magnitude would reduce the present value of corporate profits by 5.4%. For the present value to return to its original level, the discount rate would have to fall by 27 bps. How does this example square with reality? While it is impossible to know what would have happened in the absence of the pandemic, we can observe that S&P 500 EPS estimates have so far fallen by 22% for 2020 and 11% for both 2021 and 2022 since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the 30-year TIPS yield – a proxy for long-term real interest rates – has fallen by 75 bps, and is down 138 bps since the beginning of 2019. Based on this comparison, one can conclude that the decline in rate expectations has been large enough to offset the drop in projected earnings. Four Counterarguments The discussion above makes a number of assumptions that could easily be challenged. Let us consider four counterarguments to the claim that the pandemic has increased the long-term fair value of equities. As we shall see, while all four counterarguments are valid, none of them are bulletproof. Bottom-up earnings estimates are too optimistic. As estimates come down, so will stock prices. Calculations of long-term risk-free rates are being distorted by QE and other factors. If a more cautious mindset results in a lower risk-free rate, it should also result in a higher equity risk premium (ERP). A higher ERP would push up the discount rate, reducing the fair value of the stock market. The pandemic could lead to a variety of investor-negative outcomes, including further deglobalization, higher corporate taxes, and the loss of policy maneuverability during the next downturn. Let us examine all four of these counterarguments in turn. 1.   Are Earnings Estimates Too Optimistic? BCA’s US equity strategists expect S&P 500 companies to generate $104 in EPS this year and $162 in 2021. A simple weighted-average of these estimates implies a forward 12-month EPS of $123, compared with the current consensus of $140. Could the pandemic end up raising the long-term fair value of equities? Granted, consensus estimates for any given calendar year usually start high and drift lower over time, reflecting the overoptimistic bias of bottom-up analysts (Chart 2). Nevertheless, the gap between where consensus is today and where we think it will end up is large enough that further negative revisions could still weigh on stocks. As evidence, note that stock prices tend to move in the same direction as earnings revisions and 12-month ahead earnings estimates (Chart 3). Chart 2Are Earnings Estimates Too Optimistic? Chart 3Negative Earnings Revisions Will Weigh On Stocks In The Near Term The discussion above suggests that stocks could face some downward pressure in the near term, reflecting the tendency for investors to myopically focus on earnings over the next 12 months. This does not, however, negate the possibility that the pandemic could raise the long-term present value of future cash flows. After all, even the earnings projections from our equity strategists are much more benign than those in the stylized example of a 60%, 40%, and 20% decline in EPS for the next three years. In fact, to get something that fully offsets the decline in real yields since the start of the year requires a scenario that not only assumes a 60%, 40%, and 20% drop in earnings, but also assumes that profits remain 10% lower forever relative to the baseline (Chart 1, Scenario 2). 2.    Are Estimates Of Long-Term Risk-Free Rates Distorted To The Downside? Chart 4Rate Expectations Have Come Down So far, we have argued that earnings are unlikely to fall by enough over the next few years to counteract the steep drop in long-term interest rates. But, perhaps the problem is not with the earnings projections? Perhaps the problem is with the estimates of the long-term risk-free rate? Conceptually, long-term government bond yields should incorporate the market’s expectation of how short-term interest rates will evolve over the life of the bond plus a “term premium.” The inelegantly named term premium is a catch-all, unobservable variable that captures everything that affects bond yields other than changes in rate expectations. Term premia have fallen in global bond markets since the start of the year, partly because central banks have ramped up bond buying programs with the express intent of pushing down long-term yields. Nevertheless, rate expectations have also come down, as can be gleaned from forward contracts linked to expected overnight rates (Chart 4). This suggests that expectations of lower rates have played an important role in explaining the decline in bond yields. In any case, it is not clear why one should control for the term premium in calculating discount rates. If the idea is to compare bonds with stocks, then one should look at bond yields directly, rather than trying to ascertain what yields would hypothetically be in the absence of various distortions – especially if these distortions are unlikely to go away anytime soon. You can’t eat hypothetical profits. 3.    Projecting The Equity Risk Premium If overly optimistic earnings estimates and a distorted risk-free rate cannot fully counteract the claim that the pandemic has raised the long-term fair value of equities, what about the third driver of present value calculations: the equity risk premium (ERP)? While the ERP cannot be observed directly, it is possible to infer it by looking at the difference between the long-term earnings yield and the real bond yield. Under some simplifying assumptions, the earnings yield provides a good estimate of the long-term real total return to holding stocks.1 To the extent that the earnings yield has risen this year, while the risk-free rate has fallen, one can infer that the equity risk premium has gone up. However, there is no money in observing today’s equity risk premium; the money is in projecting it. The equity risk premium can shift a lot over the course of the business cycle. This is why the stock-to-bond ratio moves so closely with, say, the ISM manufacturing index (Chart 5). Chart 5Stock-To-Bond Ratio And Economic Growth Go Hand-In-Hand Like many financial market variables, the ERP has tended to be mean reverting. Today, the ERP is above its long-term average both in the US and the rest of the world, which suggests that it may decline over time (Chart 6). If that were to happen, stocks would almost certainly outperform bonds. Chart 6Favor Equities Over Bonds Over A 12-Month Horizon Yet, in an environment where caution reigns supreme, might the ERP stay elevated? After all, if risk-free bond yields remain low because people are more reluctant to spend, wouldn’t that mean that investors will continue to demand an additional premium to holding stocks? Perhaps, but this assumes that bonds will retain their safe-haven characteristics. There are two reasons to think that these characteristics may fray in a post-pandemic world. First, with policy rates now close to zero in most markets, there is a limit to how much further bond yields can decline. This means that bond prices will not rise much even if the recession lasts much longer than expected  (Table 1). Table 1Bonds Won't Provide Much Of A Hedge Even In A Severe Recession Scenario Second, looking further out, highly indebted governments may try to dissuade central banks from raising rates even once unemployment has fallen back to normal levels. This could lead to higher inflation, imperiling bond investors. While such an outcome would not necessarily be good for stocks, equities will be more insulated than bonds because nominal profits tend to rise more quickly in an environment of higher inflation. As such, one could plausibly argue that the equity risk premium should not be any higher, and conceivably should be lower, in a post-pandemic world. 4.     Unintended Consequences Chart 7Global Trade Was Already Stalling While it is too early to say with any confidence what the long-term effects of the pandemic will be, it is certainly possible that they will be momentous. Globalization had already stalled before the eruption of the Sino-US trade war (Chart 7). It could go into reverse if trade tensions remain elevated and countries increasingly focus on ensuring that they have enough domestic capacity to produce various essential goods. Support for pro-business, laissez-faire policies could also wane further. Prior to the pandemic, BCA’s geopolitical team gave President Trump a 55% chance of being re-elected. Now, with the economy in shambles, they only give him a 35% chance. If the Democrats take control of the White House and both Houses of Congress, Trump’s corporate tax cuts are sure to be watered down if not fully reversed. The pandemic could also limit the ability of policymakers to respond to the next downturn. Interest rates cannot be cut further and high debt levels may limit fiscal maneuverability, especially for countries that do not have access to their own printing press. To be sure, there could be some silver linings. Many lessons have been learned over the past few months. If another pandemic were to occur, we will be better prepared. Meanwhile, gratuitous business travel will be curtailed now that people have grown more comfortable with videoconferencing. And just like the space race inspired a generation of scientists and engineers, the pandemic could motivate more young people to pursue a career in medical research. Investment Conclusions While not our base case, we would subjectively assign a 25% probability to an outcome where the pandemic ends up raising the long-term present value of corporate cash flows by pushing down the discount rate by more than enough to offset the near-term drop in profits. Chart 8Don't Rush Into Growth Stocks Just Yet, As Value Stocks Are Still Cheap Even if the pandemic leaves stocks lower than they otherwise would have been, the current equity risk premium is high enough to warrant overweighting global equities over bonds on a 12-month horizon. Of course, stocks are unlikely to sail smoothly to new highs on the back of lower interest rates alone. As we discussed last week in a reported entitled “Still Stuck in The Tree,” it will be difficult to dismantle ongoing lockdown measures until a mass-testing regime is put in place, something that is still at least a few months away at best.2 With the data on the economy and corporate earnings set to disappoint in the near term, stocks could give up some of their recent gains. Thus, while we are still bullish on equities on a long-term horizon, we are more cautious on a short-term, 3-month horizon.  Drilling further down, the decline in long-term rates this year is likely to create winners and losers across all asset classes. Some of the winners and losers are fairly straightforward to identify. For instance, growth stocks, whose market value hinges on anticipated cash flows that may not be realized until far into the future, gain relatively more from lower rates than value stocks. Banks, which are overrepresented in value indices, have suffered from the flattening of yield curves and lower rates in general. That said, given that value stocks currently trade at a multi-decade discount to growth stocks, we would not recommend that clients chase growth stocks at this juncture (Chart 8). Other winners and losers from lower rates may be less readily discernible. For example, consider the US dollar. The greenback benefited over the past few years from the fact that US rates were higher than those abroad. That rate differential has narrowed significantly recently as the Fed brought interest rates down to zero (Chart 9). Yet, the dollar has managed to remain well bid thanks to safe-haven flows into the Treasury market. Looking out, if the Fed succeeds in easing dollar funding pressures, as we expect will be the case, the dollar will weaken. Chart 9Rate Differentials Are No Longer A Tailwind For The US Dollar The plunge in near-term oil futures this week was a reminder of the extent to which the pandemic has suppressed crude demand. Transportation accounts for over half of global oil usage. Going forward, the combination of a weaker dollar, increased supply discipline, and a rebound in global growth in the second half of this year will help lift oil prices (Chart 10). Our energy analysts see WTI and Brent returning to $38/bbl and $42/bbl, respectively, by the end of the year following the drumming they received this week (Chart 11).3 Chart 10Commodity Prices Usually Rise When The Dollar Weakens Chart 11Oil Prices Expected To Recover Oil prices tend to be strongly correlated with inflation expectations (Chart 12). As inflation expectations rise, real rates could fall further, giving an additional boost to equity valuations.   Chart 12Inflation Expectations And Oil Prices Tend To Move Closely Together Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1  For a more in-depth discussion on this, please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, “TINA To The Rescue,” dated August 23, 2019. 2  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Still Stuck In The Tree,” dated April 16, 2020. 3  Please see Commodity & Energy Strategy Weekly Report, “USD Strength Restrains Commodity Recovery,” dated April 23, 2020; Special Alert, “WTI In Free Fall,” dated April 20, 2020; and Weekly Report, “US Storage Tightens, Pushing WTI Lower,” dated April 16, 2020. Global Investment Strategy View Matrix Current MacroQuant Model Scores

Special Report

Dear Client, Next week we will be publishing a joint Special Report on the Chinese infrastructure investment outlook with our Emerging Markets Strategy service, authored by my colleague Ellen JingYuan He. Best regards, Jing Sima, China Strategist Feature Chart I-1Chinese Non-Financial Corporations Are Heavily Indebted There are fears that the two-month hiatus in China’s business activities due to the COVID-19 epidemic has sparked acute cash shortages among Chinese companies. In turn, this has increased the danger that the highly leveraged Chinese corporate sector may be pushed into widespread insolvency (Chart I-1). The number of bankruptcies will undoubtedly climb, but small and micro firms are most at risk versus larger companies that have deeper cash reserves and easier access to financing. Our analysis shows that, before the outbreak hit China in January, companies listed in China’s onshore and offshore equity markets exhibited relatively healthy financial statements with adequate operating cash flows to cover debt obligations. This increases the probability that Chinese listed companies will survive the economic and financial shocks from the epidemic, and that their stock prices will rebound along with the expectations of a recovery in the Chinese economy. Chart I-2Both Chinese Economy And Corporate Profits Are Largely Driven By Domestic Demand It also appears that China’s domestic economy is relatively insulated from the global financial market turmoil and impending global recession. China’s corporate profit outlook is dominated by domestic economic conditions rather than external demands. This view is also reflected in the relative performance of Chinese onshore and offshore stocks (Chart I-2). Moreover, the charts in the Appendix illustrate that corporate financial ratios in almost all sectors of China’s onshore and offshore equity markets have somewhat improved from the previous economic down cycle that began in 2014. This underscores our view that if reflationary measures overcompensate for the economic slowdown, as in the 2015/2016 easing cycle, then Chinese stocks will likely rally in absolute terms, as well as outperform global benchmarks. We selected three categories of financial ratios to monitor profitability, leverage and operating cash flow conditions of Chinese domestic and investable listed non-financial companies (Table I-1).1 The financial data in our exercise are from Refinitiv Datastream Worldscope. Its corresponding stock price indexes for China’s overall market and sectors most closely resemble the MSCI China Index and the MSCI China Onshore index. Table I-1 It is also noted that the Chinese investable index, excluding financial companies, is dominated by large technology companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu.2 These tech companies generally have more adequate cash flows and lower debt ratios than the more capital intensive sectors such as industrial and energy. The analysis we present in this report on non-financial companies in the offshore market, therefore, is not indicative of China’s overall corporate financial health. Rather, our findings are indicative of how investors should view the listed companies and their sector performance within China’s investable market. Several observations from our analysis of the listed companies’ financial ratios are noteworthy: Chinese non-financial corporations are highly leveraged, and have not de-levered much despite the financial deleverage campaign that began in late 2017. Contrary to the belief that Chinese corporates’ financial health is significantly weaker than that in developed economies, the leverage ratio, profit margins, and debt-servicing ability among Chinese domestic and investable non-financial companies are actually in the range of their global peers (Chart I-3). Yet, Chinese companies trade at substantial discounts to global benchmarks. This is particularly evident in the offshore market, whereas domestic Chinese stocks were priced at a discount until the recent global market selloffs (Chart I-4). This underpins our view that, when China’s economy and corporate profits recover, Chinese stocks should outperform their global benchmarks on a cyclical time horizon. Importantly, with a stronger aggregate corporate financial health and a large price discount. Chinese investable non-financial stocks have more upside potential than their domestic counterparts. Chart I-3Financial Health Among Listed Chinese Companies Comparable With DMs Chart I-4Chinese Investable Stock Prices Remain Deeply Discounted Relative To Global Benchmarks   Utilities, machinery, industrials and construction materials are among the sectors with the lowest cash flow-to-interest expense ratios, in both China’s domestic and investable markets. In particular, machinery, industrials and construction materials are pro-cyclical sectors and their profit growth is positively correlated with economic growth. Their low profitability and high leverage contribute to their poor cash flows. Those sectors have been severely impacted by the stoppages in manufacturing and construction activities due to the COVID-19 epidemic in China, making them vulnerable to cash shortages. However, there is a low risk of a broad-based default among these firms, because state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate these sectors in the Chinese equity market. The stock performance in these sectors is also extremely sensitive to shifts in China’s monetary and policy stance, and thus should benefit from the recent loosening in monetary conditions and the push for a substantial increase in infrastructure investment this year. Chart I-5Small Property Developers In China Are Much More Vulnerable To Cash Shortages Than Large Ones The leverage ratio in the real estate sector has doubled in the past 10 years. The sector’s cash flow-to-total liabilities ratio has also declined sharply since 2017, when the authorities tightened lending standards to property developers. However, the sector’s aggregate cash flow situation is still an improvement from its lowest point in 2014, in both China’s domestic and investable markets. The countrywide lockdowns in January and February will undoubtedly have severe impacts on Chinese property developers’ cash flows. But the real estate sector is perhaps the best example in exhibiting a pronounced divergence in cash flow conditions between larger and smaller firms. Chart I-5 shows that, while the median ratio of cash-to-total liabilities tuned negative among 76 domestic listed real estate developers, the average ratio from total companies in the same sector suggests that the cash situation has actually improved since mid-2018. This divergence indicates that larger developers have more solid financial fundamentals and easier access to liquidity compared with their smaller counterparts, even before the lockdowns. We expect the divergence in cash flow conditions to widen in the coming months, and smaller property developers will face intensifying pressure to consolidate. China’s domestic healthcare companies have a much better cash balance than the investable healthcare sector, which has the lowest ratio of cash-to-interest expenses among all sectors. The poor cash flow conditions in investable healthcare companies are due to high leverage and low profitability, as well as high operating costs and R&D expenses. Chinese domestic healthcare sector has outperformed the broad market since the epidemic broke out in January. While we think the overall Chinese investable stocks have more upside than their domestic peers, domestic healthcare companies’ lower leverage ratio, stronger cash flows, and much higher profit margin make the sector a better bet than investable healthcare stocks on a cyclical time horizon (Chart I-6).  Chart I-6Domestic Healthcare Sector Likely To Continue Outperforming The Broad Market Chart I-7Energy Stocks Will Remain Depressed Until Oil Prices Rebound Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between the energy sector’s profitability, cash flow conditions, stock performance and crude oil prices (Chart I-7). In the past two years, the sector’s leverage ratio has risen, profit margins have thinned and the cash flow situation has sharply deteriorated to the same level as in 2014 when oil prices collapsed. The ongoing oil price rout will generate powerful deflationary forces in the energy sector and will likely further deteriorate energy firms’ profitability and cash flow. While we stay long cyclical stocks versus defensives on both a 0-3 month and a 6-12 month view, we recommend a cautious stance towards energy stocks until the evolving oil price war situation is clarified.   Qingyun Xu, CFA Senior Analyst qingyunx@bcaresearch.com Jing Sima China Strategist jings@bcaresearch.com Appendix Overall Markets Excluding Financials Consumer Discretionary Sector Consumer Staples Sector Real Estate Sector Automobile Sector Machinery Sector Industrials Sector Construction Materials Sector Telecommunications Sector Technology Sector Healthcare Sector Energy Sector   Utilities Sector   Footnotes 1    We exclude banks and financial institutions from this analysis, due to discrepancy in Chinese banks’ accounting measures from those of non-financial corporations’. 2   Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and JD together account for nearly 40% of the non-financial market cap in Chinese investable index. Cyclical Investment Stance Equity Sector Recommendations

Highlights For stock markets, the best inoculation against Covid-19 is ultra-low bond yields. Our tactical underweight to equities versus bonds achieved its 5 percent profit target and is now closed. We are now awaiting the fractal signal to go tactically overweight (Chart of the Week). Price to sales is a much better predictor of 10-year returns than is price to earnings, especially when profit margins are stretched as they are now. New long-term recommendation: overweight Swedish equities versus bonds. Germany and Switzerland also offer attractive excess 10-year equity returns over bonds. Fractal trade: the 130 percent outperformance of palladium versus nickel in just six months is now technically stretched. Chart of the WeekStocks Are Approaching Oversold – Stay Tuned For Stock Markets, The Best Inoculation Against Covid-19 Is Ultra-Low Bond Yields A global slowdown, exacerbated by the Covid-19 virus contagion, is dominating the news and financial headlines. There are worries that the stock market is still in denial and has a long way to fall – rather like Wile E. Coyote suspended in disbelief as he runs over the cliff-edge. In fact, some of the most economically sensitive equity sectors have already fallen a long way. For example, the oil and gas sector is down by 20 percent (Chart 2). Chart I-2Economically Sensitive Sectors And Bond Yields Have Plunged Meanwhile, bond yields have plunged to new lows, and in some cases all-time lows. Hence, we are pleased to report that our tactical underweight to equities versus 10-year bonds, initiated on January 9, has achieved its 5 percent profit target and is now closed.1 We are now awaiting the fractal signal to go tactically overweight. Bond yields have plunged to new lows. Having said that, when the world economy is set to grind to a halt in the first quarter, and halfway to a recession, is a 5 percent underperformance of equities versus bonds enough? There is certainly scope for some further downside, but for investors with a multi-year horizon, equities still win the ugly contest versus bonds. Where bond yields are approaching the lower limit to their yields – around -1 percent – it means they are approaching the upper limit to their prices. Hence, bonds become a ‘lose-lose’ proposition. Bond prices cannot rise much further, even in an economic slump, but they can fall a lot if sentiment suddenly recovers. As the riskiness of bonds rises relative to equities, the prospective return that investors will accept from equities rapidly collapses to the ultra-low level of bond yields. And as valuation is just the inverse of prospective return, this underpins and justifies an exponentially higher valuation of equities. How can we best gauge the prospective (long-term) returns that equities now offer? To answer this question, we need to take a Japanese lesson. A Japanese Lesson: Price To Sales Is The Best Predictor Of Prospective Return A great advantage of being a European investor is that the difficult investment questions have already been asked and answered by our friends in Japan – so we just need to take some Japanese lessons. One of the most important lessons is that the Japanese stock market’s price to sales multiple has a near-perfect predictive record for Japanese 10-year returns since the 1980s.2 For world equities, market capitalisation to GDP (which broadly equates to price to sales at a world level) also has a near-perfect predictive record for 10-year returns since the late 1990s.3 The corollary lesson is that the price to earnings multiple – either based on 12-month trailing or 12-month forward earnings – is not such a good predictor of prospective return. Price to earnings wrongly pinpointed Japan’s highest valuation in 1994 rather than at the peak of the bubble in 1989. Moreover, since 2000, price to earnings has suggested that Japan’s stock market is cheaper than it truly is, and grossly overestimated prospective returns. Price to earnings made the same mistake for world equities in the mid-noughties, understating valuations and thereby overestimating prospective returns. The trouble with price to earnings is that it takes no account of the likely evolution of profit margins – treating a stock market multiple of, say, 30 on a high profit margin the same as 30 on a low profit margin. The problem is that when the market is trading at 30 on a low margin it has the capacity for higher profit growth through margin expansion – and thereby a higher prospective return – than when it is trading at 30 on a high margin (Chart 3). Chart I-3Price To Earnings Takes No Account Of Changing Profit Margins It follows that a high price to earnings on a low profit margin makes the market appear more expensive than it truly is, and thereby underestimates prospective returns. In 1994, Japan appeared to be more expensive than at the peak of the bubble in 1989 because profit margins halved through 1989-94. The trouble with price to earnings is that it takes no account of the likely evolution of profit margins. Conversely, a low price to earnings on a high profit margin makes the market appear less expensive that it truly is, and thereby overestimates prospective returns (Chart 4 and Chart 5). Chart I-4Price To Sales Has An Excellent Predictive Record In Japan… Chart I-5…Whereas Price To Earnings Has Made Many Mistakes   In the mid-noughties, Japan appeared to be less expensive than it truly was because profit margins surged through 2001-07. The same was true for world equities. Hence, price to earnings grossly overestimated the prospective long-term return in 2007 (Chart 6). Chart I-6Profit Margins Are At Generational Highs Price to sales avoids the mistakes of price to earnings by removing profit margins from the equation. Put another way, it is like using price to earnings with a constant long-term profit margin. This tends to be more prudent – especially today when margins are close to generational highs and facing several threats in the coming years. One threat to profit margins comes from a growing populist backlash against record high corporate profitability, especially in the most profitable sectors. The threat manifests through populist politicians or parties which vow to rein in runaway profitability through higher taxes and/or regulation and/or nationalisation. Think Bernie Sanders. A second threat comes from environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). Think carbon taxes. A third threat comes the possible break-up of the pseudo-monopoly tech behemoths, killing both their pricing power and market penetration. Think antitrust suit against Google or Facebook. Admittedly, this is likely to be a US focussed threat, but the impact on stock markets would be felt worldwide. Given these threats, long-term investors should assume some pressure on profit margins from today’s generational highs. Accordingly, just as in 2007, price to sales is likely to be a much better predictor of prospective returns than is price to earnings (Chart 7 and Chart 8). Chart I-7At A World Level, Market Cap To GDP Has An Excellent Predictive Record… Chart I-8…Whereas Price To Earnings Was Very Wrong In 2007 Sweden Is An Attractive Long-Term Opportunity Price to sales predicts that stock markets, on average, are set to deliver feeble single-digit total nominal returns over the coming decade. Nevertheless, with bond yields even closer to zero, and the riskiness of bonds much higher at ultra-low yields, equities still beat bonds in the ugly contest of long-term prospective returns. In fact, in those countries where bond yields are approaching their lower limit of around -1 percent – meaning bond prices are approaching their upper limit – equities win the contest more handsomely. On this basis, the stock markets in Germany and Switzerland offer attractive excess 10-year returns over their bond markets. But the most attractive long-term opportunity is Sweden. Based on its price to sales multiple, Sweden’s stock market is set to deliver around 6 percent a year over the coming decade (Chart 9). Chart I-9Sweden’s Stock Market Is Set To Deliver 6 Percent A Year Given that Sweden’s 10-year bond yield is negative, Sweden’s stock market takes the honour of offering one of the world’s highest excess 10-year returns over its bond market (Chart 10). Chart I-10Sweden’s Stock Market Has The Highest Excess Return Over Bonds Accordingly, we are adding Sweden to our existing structural overweight to equities versus long-dated bonds in Germany, in a 50:50 combination. Fractal Trading System* As discussed, we are pleased to report that underweight S&P 500 versus the 10-year T-bond achieved its 5 percent profit target and is now closed. Elsewhere, the palladium price has surged. In just six months, palladium has outperformed nickel by 130 percent, making its 130-day fractal structure extremely fragile. Accordingly, this week’s recommended trade is short palladium versus nickel, setting a profit target of 32 percent with a symmetrical stop-loss. The rolling 1-year win ratio now stands at 60 percent. When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks.   Dhaval Joshi Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com   * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report “Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model,” dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Our expression of this was underweight S&P 500 versus US 10-year T-bond. 2 Prospective returns are nominal total (capital plus income) 10-year returns, shown as an annualised rate. 3 Price/sales per share = (price*number of shares)/(sales per share * number of shares) = market capitalisation/total sales. At a global level, total sales broadly equal GDP, so price/sales per share = market capitalisation/GDP. But note that this does not apply at a regional or country level because sales can originate from outside the domestic economy.. Fractal Trading System Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields   Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations