Developed Countries
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a “constitutional crisis” if Congress failed to raise the national debt limit and the United States defaulted on bond payments. Yellen spoke out to urge Congress to come to an agreement just ahead of May 9 meetings…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the ECB is wading into policy-mistake territory because it is overemphasizing lagging indicators such as wages at the expense of leading indicators such as credit and money flows. European…
The ECB continues to focus on lagging indicators and risks once again to cause a policy error that unduly hurts European growth. What does it mean for investors?
Friday’s US jobs report came in stronger than anticipated. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253 thousand in April, meaningfully above expectations of a 185 thousand increase. Admittedly, the March figure was revised down significantly from 236 thousand to…
Investors are betting that the Fed has delivered its last rate hike of the cycle and will swiftly pivot to easing policy. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the July meeting. By…
The Fed’s Index of Common Inflation Expectations confirms that there is reduced pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further. The quarterly release shows the index declined for the third consecutive time in Q1. The index is a…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s base case remains a 2024 recession but the risks around that view have increased in light of recent banking stresses. A recession that begins abruptly this year could end up being deeper than one that…
Although our take has not changed yet, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to our constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully.
As anticipated, the ECB downshifted the pace of rate hikes on Thursday, delivering a 25bps increase. Moreover, the central bank announced that it “expects” to end APP reinvestments in July. President Christine Lagarde continued to characterize inflation as…
The Norwegian central bank’s 25bps policy rate hike on Thursday was in line with consensus expectations. The lack of a decisive peak in headline CPI inflation – which has been gyrating in the 5.9-7.5% range since mid-2022 – is keeping policymakers…