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Developed Countries

The Beveridge Curve Will Determine Whether The US Goes Into Recession
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ‘Beveridge Curve’ is the most important chart of 2023. The chart plots the tight inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment. It is important because many economists argue that the very…
Daily Insights
The Most Important Chart Of 2023, Updated

The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus: we reveal the most important chart for Europe and the most important chart for China in early 2023.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Immaculate Disinflation

The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Key Macro Questions

Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits? Are global equities pricing in enough bad news/profit contraction?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Australia Inflation Accelerates In November
While price pressures appear to have peaked in the US and Eurozone, the latest monthly report suggests that inflation is still rising Down Under. CPI inflation in Australia accelerated from 6.9% y/y to 7.3% y/y in November, led by housing, food and…
Daily Insights
Budding Inflationary Pressures In Japan?
Tokyo’s CPI inflation firmed in December. The headline measure accelerated from 3.7% y/y to 4.0% y/y while the core figure increased from 2.4% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, ex-fresh food CPI inflation grew by a wider-than-expected 4.0% y/y from 3.6% y/y.…
Daily Insights
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Signals Improving Economic Momentum
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is sending a positive signal about the US economy. Its latest update estimates annualized real GDP growth of 4.1% in Q4 2022 – above the Fed’s 1.8% estimate of long-run trend GDP growth. Notably, according to the model,…
Daily Insights
China’s Reopening Will Boost Global Tourism
The main beneficiary from China’s exit from the zero-Covid policy will be consumer spending—particularly on services. Meanwhile, given that the impact on the industrial sector will be much more muted, it will not lead to a significant increase in Chinese…
Daily Insights
US Small Caps: Cheap But Exposed
The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index’s continued deterioration underscores frail economic conditions in the US. In particular, December’s 2.1-point decrease reflects a decline in the share of business owners that expect an improvement in business…
Daily Insights
Waiting For Employment To Crack

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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