Economic Growth
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
While efforts by policymakers to stabilize the stock market are buoying Chinese equities, domestic economic data remains soggy. Home prices declined further on both a monthly and annual basis in January, reinforcing the deflationary headwinds facing the…
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency, such as relative productivity trends…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course of doing some pushing back of our own.
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold purchases by central banks will continue apace, as they diversify away from USD foreign reserves. Amid elevated geopolitical risk, arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing…
Japanese exports in JPY increased by 11.9% y/y in January, up from a 9.7% y/y increase in December and surpassing expectations of 9.5% y/y. A 29.2% y/y jump in exports to China led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are…
Chinese equities are extending their gains following the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Onshore stocks have gained 9.0% since February 5, outperforming the global benchmark by 7.5 percentage points over this period. Similarly, the MSCI Investable index –…
Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.