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Economy

The Pivot To Rate Cuts: Context Matters
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
Daily Insights
Gold/Silver Ratio And The Soft Landing Narrative
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) confirmed the improvement in global risk sentiment in November. It declined on the back of a 9.2% rally in silver, which outpaced the 1.9% rise in gold. Since then, the GSR has soared amid a more pronounced drop in the price of…
Daily Insights
Euro Area Earnings Are Set To Contract
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European equities near cycle highs are vulnerable to weaker earnings. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a double-digit profit contraction over the next…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: US Fixed Income
Special Report

Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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What Else To Read
Special Report

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Style Chart Pack: Christmas In November

The Santa Claus rally is a repricing of the "soft landing" scenario as a likely economic outcome. Yet, many investors remain cautious, and harbor significant cash balances. Next year, repricing of various scenarios will continue, and volatility will be elevated. We remain in a "hard landing" camp and recommend defensive stance on a strategic investment horizon.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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European Earnings Models Update

The recent decline in yields has powered European equities higher, however, this rally cannot last if earnings decline meaningfully. With this in mind, are our earnings models flagging risks for stocks next year?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Jobs Data Deliver A Positive Surprise
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
Daily Insights
UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
Daily Insights

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