Economy
German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of increase. The annual rate of…
The BoC kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its press release, the BoC maintained that it is ready to keep hiking if deemed necessary. That said, the BoC noted that inflationary…
Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1.2% y/y. While the release…
Copper benefited from the recent improvement in global risk sentiment, participating in the broad-based rally in November. To the extent that the red metal has vast applications across many economic sectors, it is considered a reliable gauge of global…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, earnings growth estimates for 2024 appear overly optimistic. Just like economists and strategists, sell-side analysts are optimistic about the US economy. They have penciled in a soft landing and…
Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point that typically triggers a recession. Ahead of the upcoming US jobs report, we point out what it would take for the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator to breach its event horizon. And how to position in stocks and bonds, both tactically and cyclically. Plus: potential turning points in Biotech and Genome, ADBE, and Taiwan versus China.
China’s CSI 300 equity index closed at its lowest level since early 2019 on Tuesday following news that Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative. The report cited the potential impact of financial stress among…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with expectations. In her post-meeting statement, Governor Michele Bullock revealed that economic developments since the RBA’s November rate increase have been in…
The November services PMIs sent a slightly positive signal on Tuesday. The global measure ticked up from 50.4 to 50.6, pointing to a marginal pickup in the pace of expansion. Importantly, this slight improvement was broad-based across the major global…
The number of US job openings fell sharply in October according to the JOLTS survey, from 9.4 million to 8.7 million. At 8.7 million, job openings are still above the 7.1 million average seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Viewed in isolation, this…