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Economy

Ifo German Business Sentiment: Smaller-Than-Anticipated Deterioration
The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal 0.1-point decline to 85.7 delivered…
Daily Insights
Negative CFNAI Signals Below-Average US Growth
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the GDP tracking indicators produced by regional Fed banks are sending different signals about economic conditions in the US. While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests Q3 growth is around 4.9%, the New York Fed and…
Daily Insights
The Near-Term Bullish Case For The USD
Last week, the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects to deliver one last rate hike this year. Similarly, some of its European counterparts signaled that they are at or close to the end of their hiking cycles. Where does this leave the outlook for USD…
Daily Insights
The Oil Market: Visible And Invisible Drivers
Special Report

China’s oil demand growth will moderate to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. We recommend that investors in China’s onshore and offshore stock indexes overweight energy producers.

China Investment Strategy
Hitting A Pause Button: Roundtable Follow-Up

Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Flash DM PMIs Indicate Deteriorating Service Sector Activity
Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US, the Services PMI’s…
Daily Insights
Timing The BoJ's Next Move
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…
Daily Insights
The Bulls Have Retreated
Investor sentiment has turned less optimistic. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook has collapsed to 31.3% from its peak of 51.4% two months ago. It is now back down below its historical average of 37.5%.…
Daily Insights
The Corporate Financing Buffer
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is shrinking.. Households have been…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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