Economy
Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.
EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated from 1.1% q/q to 1.2% q/q in Q1 2023, rising above expectations of 1.1%. Compensation within goods-producing industries accelerated from 0.9% to 1.2%, while wages at service-providing industries grew at a slower…
The Swiss KOF Barometer ended its four-month-long streak of rising monthly readings in April. It dropped nearly three points to 96.4 – below expectations of 98.1. Considering that the KOF barometer is a leading indicator of the Swiss economy, its latest…
The Eurozone economy’s marginal 0.1% q/q GDP growth in Q1 2023 confirms that economic conditions improved slightly at the start of the year. Although the GDP figure missed consensus expectations of a 0.2% q/q rise, it came in line with the latest ECB staff…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, the risk of household sector indebtedness has rotated from countries like the US and Spain to several other countries/regions, including Hong Kong SAR, Australia, Canada, and Sweden. These are…
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
The advance GDP estimate showed a slowdown in the pace of US economic growth from 2.6% to 1.1% in Q1 2023, below expectations of 1.9%. However, the details of the report painted a mixed picture of economic conditions. On the one hand, consumption growth…
Incoming economic data confirm that China’s post-lockdown recovery remains bifurcated. On the one hand, the end of the zero-Covid policy is boosting consumer spending – particularly on services. On the other hand, structural headwinds and the weak global…