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Economy

After Goldilocks

The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will prompt the Fed to slam on the brakes, leading to a deep recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Deteriorating Housing Markets In Canada And New Zealand
The latest data show a deterioration in the housing markets in Canada and New Zealand. In particular, the 7.3% m/m decline in Canadian building permits in December fell below expectations of a more muted 3.9% m/m contraction. Similarly, the number of building…
Daily Insights
The BoE Is Nearing The End
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 4% on Thursday, with two of the nine MPC members voting to keep it unchanged. While the central bank acknowledged that CPI inflation has likely peaked, it noted that domestic pressures…
Daily Insights
Will The ECB “Stay The Course”?
As expected, the ECB raised its three policy rates by 50bps on Thursday and signaled that it intends to raise interest rates by another 50bps at its next meeting in March. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde underscored that the decision…
Daily Insights
Risk Assessment Of Our Commodity Views
Special Report

Our bullish view on commodity prices is underpinned by demand growth driven by stronger real GDP, led by EM. Threats to this view – i.e., a failed re-opening in China, stronger USD, higher real rates in the US, and continued policy uncertainty – are non-trivial. All the same, we remain bullish industrial commodities and gold.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
A Dove In Hawk’s Clothing

This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Manufacturing Contraction Eases In January
PMIs suggest that the pace of decline in manufacturing activity slowed in January. The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.1 from 48.7, indicating that the rate of contraction eased last month. Notably, the improvement was broad-based across all…
Daily Insights
Fed Downshifts, Signals More Hikes To Come
As expected, the Fed downshifted the pace of rate hikes once again and delivered a 25bp rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. Changes to the post-meeting press release support the decision to shift to a less hawkish stance. In particular, the…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market Is Still Too Tight
Results of the December JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market remains extremely tight. Job openings unexpectedly jumped from 10.4 million to 11.0 million, surprising expectations of a decline to 10.3 million. As such, the job openings rate increased…
Daily Insights
January In Review
Nearly all major financial assets we track outperformed their post-GFC average returns in January. In particular, US Investment Grade bonds posted the highest z-scores last month, followed by global government bonds. These assets benefitted from cooling…
Daily Insights

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