Economy

The September CPI report was disappointing, but we still see several signs pointing to a rapid decline in inflation. Our constructive near-term view on stocks and the economy remains intact.

The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?

The kinked Phillips curve not only explains why inflation surged last year but makes a number of surprising predictions, chief of which is that inflation could fall significantly over the coming months without a major increase in the unemployment rate. In the near term, that is bullish for stocks.

A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.