Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

ISM Manufacturing: More Than Meets The Eye
The November ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations, increasing to 48.4 from 46.5 in October. The improvement was partly driven by the new orders component, which increased to 50.4 from 47.1. Price pressures moderated.  The underlying details of…
Daily Insights
Monthly TAA Report: Thin Is Back In! How Budgets, Growth, And Valuations Will Be Leaner Than Expected In 2025

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Correa
Europe: Disinflation Remains Well On Track
The November flash Eurozone inflation estimate met expectations, with headline HICP accelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.0% in October, above the ECB’s target. Core inflation remained constant at 2.7%. At 3.9%, services inflation is still elevated. The outlook…
Daily Insights
Will Trump Be Bullish Or Bearish For Commodities?
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team evaluated the impact of president-elect Trump’s policies on commodity markets. Trump’s energy policies, while promoting increased domestic oil production, are unlikely to drive immediate growth in US crude output.…
Daily Insights
Japan: Keep Betting On Divergence
The November Tokyo CPI beat expectations, with headline inflation accelerating to 2.6% y/y from 1.8%. The core (ex. fresh food) and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) measures also reaccelerated to 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The Tokyo CPI provides…
Daily Insights
European Credit: More Easing Will Be Needed
European monetary data printed in line with expectations in October, with M3 growing 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% in September. Growth in private sector lending was unchanged at 1.2% y/y despite the recent easing in lending standards. We expect the credit impulse to…
Daily Insights
A Year-End Review Of Our Open Positions

This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
France: Too Early To Buy The Dip
Investors focused on the flurry of cabinet nominations in the aftermath of the US election, but the US does not have a monopoly on political drama. France is going through turmoil of its own. This summer’s snap election left France’s government weakened,…
Daily Insights
US: Disinflation Not At Risk For Now, Spending Slows Down
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Daily Insights
On Trump And Tariff Threats
President-elect Trump jolted markets Monday night by declaring that tariffs will be implemented on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The US dollar strengthened while stocks fell, as did Treasury yields. Equities, however, recovered on Tuesday, as a…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics