Economy
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, intra-market repricing will offer investors a unique opportunity to enter the industrial real estate space in the next two years. In the short term, Mexico will be a big winner…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
Claudia Sheinbaum officially became Mexico's new president amid significant market pessimism. Our Emerging Market strategists highlighted that investor fears about Mexico’s constitutional changes were largely unwarranted. Investors have overreacted to…
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed valuation levels, conditions…
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and hospitality, as well as…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning.
The ISM services PMI grew at an accelerating pace in September, from 51.5 to 54.9, handily exceeding expectations, and extending a three-month expansion streak. Growth was broad-based with an increasing number of industries (12 out of 17) reporting…
Comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, hinting at “a more aggressive” pace of rate cuts, marked a shift in rhetoric from previous meetings which signaled a “gradual” pace. The GBP/USD fell on the news and money markets proceeded to…
We’ve highlighted over the past week that while Beijing’s stimulus package remains unlikely to trigger a meaningful business cycle revival, it nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline leading to a sentiment-fueled rally in Chinese equities and…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent the multi-decade housing and construction boom, China will be unable to generate the monster credit impulses that it did through 2000-20. While the credit impulse surged through the 2000-20…