Equities

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Yield curve dynamics, higher oil prices, recovering balance sheets, and compelling valuations and technicals all suggest that energy stocks will burst higher in the coming months.  Melting medical cost inflation, BCA’s rising interest rate expectations along with an economy running at full steam, all suggest that managed health care margins and profits will overwhelm in the coming quarters. Recent Changes Upgrade the S&P managed health care index to overweight today. Add the S&P energy index to the high-conviction overweight list today. Table 1 Feature On the eve of earnings season, the SPX ended last week higher as bank profits delivered and allayed fears of recession. All-time absolute highs in the S&P tech sector and in the Philly SOX index suggest that global growth will likely reaccelerate in the back half of the year, vaulting the broad market to new highs. In addition, the suppressed Treasury term premium1 signals that the path of least resistance for equities is higher on a cyclical time horizon (term premium shown inverted, Chart 1). Chart 1All Clear... Nevertheless, some caution is still warranted from a tactical perspective. Since March 4 when we first turned short-term cautious on the broad equity market,2 the SPX has moved roughly 100 points both ways. Internal market moves, financial conditions, fund flows, complacency and the current economic backdrop all signal that stocks are not out of the woods yet. Namely, the S&P high beta versus the S&P low volatility tilt has failed to confirm the slingshot in the SPX (Chart 2). Similar to the small cap underperformance, mega cap tech is trouncing small cap tech stocks (Chart 3). Not only do large cap technology stocks have pristine balance sheets, but they also have earnings. In contrast, from the 89 S&P 600 tech constituents 54 have no forward profits. The weak over strong balance sheet underperformance is emitting the same signal (top panel, Chart 3). Chart 2...But Some... Chart 3...Caution... The bond market is also sending a warning shot. High yield corporate bonds are underperforming long-dated Treasurys (middle panel, Chart 2). And, the junk bond option adjusted spread has not fallen to the 2018 lows, let alone all-time lows (not shown). While a lot has been said on easier financial conditions, they have yet to return to the early-2018 lows. In fact, similar to the non-confirmation of the all-time SPX highs in late-September, the GS financial conditions index (FCI) is tracing a higher low, warning that equities have room to fall (FCI shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 2). Mutual fund flows on all equity related products are contracting on a net sales basis. Historically, fund flows and equity returns are joined at the hip and the current divergence suggests that equity prices will likely succumb to deficient demand (top panel, Chart 4). Chart 4...Is Warranted On the economic front, last Wednesday we highlighted in an Insight Report, that lumber – a hyper sensitive economic indicator – failed to corroborate the recent equity market euphoria. The weak Citi Economic Surprise Index, also warns that the economic data has yet to turn the corner and should weigh on equities (bottom panel, Chart 4). What ties everything together is SPX profits. The news on this front is mixed, at least for the next little while: EPS will most likely contract in the first half of the year, but equity investors are looking through this earnings recession. Last year’s U.S. dollar appreciation will dent both revenues and EPS, and Q1/2019 is the first quarter where such greenback strength will subtract from corporate P&Ls (Chart 5). Chart 5Dollar Trouble? What worries us most is the sectorial concentration of 2019 profit growth in one sector, financials. Another source of concern is the heavyweight tech sector’s negative profit path for calendar 2019. Such sudden internal profit moves both in magnitude and in a short time frame are far from reassuring, especially given that overall profit estimates are still trimmed. Chart 6A depicts the current sector profit contribution to 2019 growth, and compares it with the January 22nd iteration (Chart 6B). What a difference three months make. In sum, internal equity and bond market dynamics, financial conditions, the economic soft-patch and the looming profit recession all signal that short-term equity market caution is still warranted. This week we upgrade a health care subsector and reiterate our bullish stance on a deep cyclical sector. Catch Up Phase Looms For Energy Stocks Last week we broadened out our research on the yield curve (YC) inversion beyond the S&P 500 to the GICS1 sectors.3 As a reminder, the SPX peaks following the yield curve inversion and on average the S&P energy sector performs the best from the time the YC inverts until the S&P 500 peters out (please refer to Table 3 from the April 8, Special Report). While every cycle is different, if history at least rhymes, deep cyclical energy stocks will likely outperform as the SPX eventually breaks out to fresh all-time highs. Already, year-to-date the S&P energy sector is the third best performing sector, besting the SPX by over 200bps. More gains are in store, especially given the big dichotomy between the oil price recovery and the relative share price ratio (Chart 7). What is perplexing is the ingrained sell-side analyst pessimism (Chart 6A) and lack of belief that oil prices will remain near current levels or even continue their ascent as our sister Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) service publication predicts. Not only are EPS forecast to contract in every quarter this year, or 10% year-over-year according to IBES, but also revenues are slated to fall in every quarter in 2019. We would lean against this extreme analyst bearishness. While the $3.5/bbl backwardation in WTI oil futures prices one year out, and more than twice that 24-months out, underpins Wall Street’s gloomy energy sector outlook, U.S. oil extraction productivity reinforces sector profits. As U.S. crude oil production hits new all-time highs this is extracted by fewer oil rigs (bottom panel, Chart 7). If BCA’s CES constructive oil price expectation pans out, then energy stocks will easily surpass the profit and revenue bar that analysts have set extremely low for the sector. Delivering on the profit front will likely serve as a catalyst to rerate these deep cyclical stocks higher (Chart 8) and thus a catch up phase looms for energy stocks, at least up to the current level of WTI crude oil prices (top panel, Chart 7). Chart 7Catch Up Chart 8Bombed Out Valuation Granted, the U.S. dollar is a key determinant of oil prices and if BCA’s view proves accurate that global growth will return in the back half of the year (second panel, Chart 9), that is synonymous with a depreciating greenback, which in turn is bullish the broad commodity complex in general and oil prices (and thus energy stocks) in particular (middle panel, Chart 7). As a reminder, oil prices are an excellent global growth barometer, similar to their sibling Dr. Copper. Recovering global growth will boost energy stocks in an additional way: via a favorable supply/demand crude oil balance. Not only is OPEC rebalancing the global oil market through a reduction on the supply front, but a trio of potential supply shocks from Iranian sanctions, Venezuelan infrastructure and Libyan conflict are providing price support. Further, global growth has historically been tightly correlated with rising non-OECD oil demand (Chart 10). Chart 9Global Growth Beneficiary Chart 10Favorable Supply/Demand Dynamics Meanwhile, the broad energy sector is still licking its wounds from the late-2015/early-2016 manufacturing recession and is stabilizing debt and increasing EBITDA (fifth panel, Chart 11), thus the net debt/EBITDA ratio for the index has collapsed from over 11 to around 2, a level similar to the broad market (second panel, Chart 11). Interest coverage (EBIT/interest expense) is also renormalizing higher and is no longer sending a default warning for the energy space as a whole (third panel, Chart 11). The junk energy bond market corroborates/reflects this balance sheet improvement and is no longer flashing red (bottom panel, Chart 9). Finally, bombed out technical conditions are contrarily positive, and such extreme negative readings have marked the start of playable and sizable relative outperformance periods (Chart 12). Chart 11No Red Flags Chart 12Contrary Alert: Depressed Technicals Netting it all out, YC dynamics, higher oil prices on the back of rising global growth and a favorable supply/demand crude oil backdrop, recovering balance sheets, and compelling valuations and technicals suggest that energy stocks will burst higher in the coming months. Bottom Line: We reiterate our above benchmark recommendation in the S&P energy sector and today we are adding it to our high-conviction overweight list. Buy Into Managed Health Care Weakness A little over a year ago we moved to the sidelines in the S&P managed health care index, crystalizing significant relative profits of 28% for our U.S. equity portfolio.4 Now the time has come anew to explore this niche health care index from the long side. While we left some money on the table since our late-May 2018 move, relative share prices have come full circle, valuations have fallen roughly 18% from the late-2018 peak and analysts’ euphoria has been reined in (Chart 13). Chart 13Reset The inter- and intra-industry M&A fever has died down from mid-2018 and the rising momentum of a “Medicare For All” bill has weighed negatively on HMO sentiment. With regard to the latter, our geopolitical strategists believe that passage is possible. If the Democrats can unseat an incumbent president in 2020, they will also likely take the Senate and keep the House. This means they will be in the position to pass a major piece of legislation. While Trump is favored to win, barring a recession, the risk of both a Democratic sweep and a push for “Medicare for All” could be as high as 27%, and this would have a dramatic impact on the health care sector.5 Tack on the near 90bps drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield since the November 2018 peak, and factors have fallen into place for a bearish raid in this pure play health insurance index. Thin managed health care margins and profits move in close lockstep with interest rates as roughly 10% of the industry’s operating income is tied to “investment income”. In other words, as insurers receive the premia they typically invest it in Treasurys and that explains the high EPS and margin sensitivity on interest rate moves (Chart 14). While at first sight, the outlook for profits appears grim, BCA’s bond strategists expect a selloff in the bond market to materialize in the back half of the year simultaneously with a pick-up in global growth which will prove a tonic to both margins and EPS. In addition, leading indicators of heath care insurance profit margins are flashing green. Not only are medical costs melting including drug price inflation (second & bottom panels, Chart 15), but also industry cost structures are kept at bay with wages climbing below a 2%/annum rate growth and trailing overall wage inflation (third panel, Chart 15). Chart 14Overdone Chart 15Melting Cost Inflation On the demand front, as the economy is running at full employment, with unemployment insurance claims probing 60-year lows and with wages representing a headache for small and medium business owners, enrollment should stay healthy (Chart 16). Most importantly, the combination of decreasing medical cost inflation and a healthy overall labor market herald a steep decline in the industry’s medical loss ratio. All of this is unambiguously bullish for margins and profits. Finally, relative valuations and technicals have both corrected from previously stretched levels and offer a compelling entry point for fresh capital (Chart 17). Chart 16Full Employment Is Bullish Chart 17Unloved And Under-Owned Netting it all out, despite the risks that “Medicare For All” pose, melting medical cost inflation, BCA’s rising interest rate expectations along with an economy running at full steam, all suggest that managed health care margins and profits will overwhelm in the coming quarters. Bottom Line: Boost the S&P managed health care index to overweight today. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5MANH - UNH, ANTH, HUM, CNC, WCG.   Anastasios Avgeriou, U.S. Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1      According to the NY Fed: “Treasury yields can be decomposed into two components: expectations of the future path of short-term Treasury yields and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that short-term Treasury yields do not evolve as they expected.” https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/05/treasury-term-premia-1961-present.html 2      Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “The Good, The Bad And The Ugly” dated March 4, 2019, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 3      Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Special Report, “10 Most FAQs From The Road” dated April 8, 2019, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 4      Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Report, “Seeing The Light” dated May 29, 2018, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 5      If there is a 60% chance the Democrats nominate a left-wing candidate, and a 45% chance they win the election, then there is a 27% chance that they are in a position to push for “Medicare for All” with fair odds of passage. Everything will depend on the specific outcomes of the Democratic primary, presidential campaign, general election, post-election government policy priorities, and congressional passage. Stay tuned as in the coming months we will be publishing a Special Report on “Medicare For All” and health care sector implications co-authored with our sister Geopolitical Strategy service. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor value over growth Favor large over small caps

Special Report

We noted in our December 5 Weekly Report that a tactical overweight stance towards Chinese stocks (either the domestic or investable market) within a global equity portfolio was probably warranted over the following few months, but that the conditions for a cyclical overweight stance (6-12 months) were not yet present.1 More recently, we noted that an improvement in several economic indicators suggested that a strong March credit number could create these conditions, and tip the scales in favor of an upgrade recommendation for Chinese stocks over the coming year.2 Chart 1Leading Indicators Are Now Convincingly Bullish For Chinese Stocks Chart 1 shows that today’s credit release has caused a meaningful improvement in the credit component of our leading indicator for the Chinese economy. Overall growth in the money supply remains weak, but monetary conditions are easy and have clearly helped support a rebound in credit growth. All told, today’s data has made us sufficiently confident in the Chinese macroeconomic outlook to recommend a cyclical (6-12 month) overweight towards Chinese stocks (both investable and domestic) versus the global benchmark. Several questions concerning both the outlook for the economy and for Chinese stocks remain, and we will review these issues at length in next week’s report. In particular, we will discuss how much relative equity upside investors can expect over the coming year, whether the recent pace of credit growth significantly increases the chance of another credit overshoot, and when investors should expect to see a pickup in actual economic activity. Stay tuned!   Jonathan LaBerge, CFA, Vice President Special Reports jonathanl@bcaresearch.com     1 Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report “2019 Key Views: Four Themes For China In The Coming Year”, dated December 5, 2018, available at cis.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report “China Macro And Market Review”, dated April 3, 2019, available at cis.bcaresearch.com.

Special Report

Dear Client, I hosted a Webcast on Thursday, April 4th, during which I discussed the major investment themes and views I see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond. A replay can be accessed from this link. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights The exodus of baby boomers from the labor market is likely to lower income growth, which will reduce sales growth among publicly-listed companies over the coming years. After-tax profit margins may also come under pressure, while both the risk-free interest rate and the equity risk premium could rise. While it is difficult to estimate the magnitude of these effects, our best guess is that aging will have a moderately negative, though far from catastrophic, effect on equity prices. Even if the headwinds to equities from population aging turn out to be minimal, long-term investors are still likely to earn subpar returns given that valuations are fairly stretched today. In such an environment, a nimble investment approach, which focuses on the state of the business cycle among other things, will be necessary for generating alpha. Investors should maintain a cyclically bullish stance towards global equities for the time being, but begin paring back exposure late next year in advance of a recession in 2021. Feature Will Grandpa Sink The Stock Market? About 55% of U.S. stock market wealth is held by the baby boom generation – those born between 1946 and 1964 (Chart 1). As baby boomers increasingly exit the labor force and draw down their accumulated savings, there is a growing concern that equity prices will come under pressure.  Financial pundit Robert Kiyosaki published a book more than a decade ago arguing, in his usual hyperbolic style, that retiring boomers would trigger “the biggest stock market crash in history.”1 Conveniently, he even gave a date for the crash: 2016, the year when the first baby boomers would celebrate their 70th birthdays. Kiyosaki’s prophesized crash never happened. But does he still have a point? Will aging populations torpedo stocks? A Framework For Thinking About The Value Of The Stock Market Conceptually, the value of the stock market should equal the present value of the cash flows which shareholders can expect to receive. As Appendix 1 explains, this means that today’s dividend yield should equal the difference between the rate that investors use to discount those cash flows and the expected growth rate of cash flows. The discount rate is the sum of the risk-free rate and an equity risk premium. Cash flow growth tends to track earnings growth. The latter can be broken down into sales growth and margin growth. Thus, one can express the dividend yield ( D/P )  as the sum of four variables: The formula shows that an increase in either sales growth or profit margins will reduce the dividend yield (thus implying an increase in equity prices), while an increase in either the risk-free rate (rf) or the equity risk premium (rp) will raise the dividend yield. As we discuss below, demographic trends are likely to shift all four variables in the direction of lower equity prices. As baby boomers increasingly exit the labor force and draw down their accumulated savings, there is a growing concern that equity prices will come under pressure. 1. Aging And Sales Growth At the economy-wide level, business sales closely track GDP growth (Chart 2). GDP growth, in turn, is simply the sum of employment growth and productivity growth. Chart 2Business Sales Closely Track GDP Growth As baby boomers continue to age, more and more of them will leave the labor force. This will result in slower labor force growth. While this development will weigh on GDP growth, it is important to recognize that most of the decline in labor force growth in developed economies has already occurred (Chart 3). Chart 3ADM Labor Force Growth: Most Of The Decline Has Already Taken Place (I) Chart 3BDM Labor Force Growth: Most Of The Decline Has Already Taken Place (II) The annual growth rate of the labor force in the G7 peaked at 1.7% in 1980, but has averaged only 0.3% over the past decade. The UN estimates that the number of people in G7 economies between the ages of 15 and 64 – a crude proxy for the potential size of the labor force – will contract by 0.1% per year over the next twenty years, a modest step down from positive growth of 0.1% over the past decade. Productivity growth has been quite weak in developed economies since the mid-2000s (Chart 4). Whether this trend persists remains to be seen. On the positive side, robotics, AI, and genetic engineering could all boost productivity growth. On the negative side, cognitive test scores in developed economies have peaked and are now trending lower. Consistent with this observation, Heckman and LaFontaine have shown that properly measured, the U.S. high school graduation rate has been falling since the early 1970s.2 This makes baby boomers arguably the best educated generation in history. An open question concerns the extent to which slower economy-wide GDP growth filters down to sales growth among listed companies. While it is highly likely that S&P 500 sales growth will decline in an environment of weaker growth, the impact of falling GDP growth on sales may be blunted by at least three factors. First, developed economy firms will still be able to benefit from rising sales to emerging markets, even if they are suffering from sluggish sales growth at home. Second, domestic consumption will decelerate more slowly than income growth as older workers deplete their savings. Third, lower productivity growth will coincide with less “creative destruction,” which will benefit incumbent firms. In fact, this is already happening. Chart 5 shows that net firm formation has fallen dramatically since the 1970s. Chart 4In Developed Markets, Productivity Growth Has Been Falling For Over A Decade Chart 5A Sharp Drop In New Firm Formation   2. Aging And Profit Margins Population aging can affect profit margins in two ways: First, it can shift spending across sectors. For example, if age-related spending migrates from sectors with high margins to those with low margins, aggregate profit margins will decline. Second, aging can affect margins within sectors. Looking across sectors, health care spending is likely to rise in response to population aging. According to the Congressional Budget Office, health care expenditures are set to increase from 5.2% of GDP to 9.2% of GDP by 2048 (Chart 6). There once was a time when health care margins were double the S&P 500 average (Chart 7). During the past two decades, however, health care margins have fallen, and are now slightly below the S&P average. Chart 7AS&P 500 Margins By Sector (I) Chart 7BS&P 500 Margins By Sector (II) Looking out, it is likely that health care margins will continue to contract, as cash-strapped governments look for ways to cut health care costs. Presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris have all championed “Medicare for all.” If implemented, such a policy prescription would decimate health care sector profits by reducing demand for private insurance while giving the federal government more bargaining power to negotiate lower drug prices. Most of the decline in labor force growth in developed economies has already occurred. The only silver lining, pardon the pun, for margins is that older people tend to display greater brand loyalty (Chart 8). Whether this is because of experience, habit, or nostalgia is not clear, but older consumers switch products less often, preferring to stick with “what they know.”3 Perhaps reflecting a general tendency for self-reported happiness to increase in old age, elderly consumers also tend to express greater satisfaction with their purchases. Nevertheless, on balance, we expect aging to make a slightly negative contribution to profit margins. 3. Aging And The Risk-Free Rate Proponents of the secular stagnation thesis posit that demographic trends have led to a decline in the neutral rate of interest. As Chart 9 shows, aging could depress the neutral rate if an older population causes the aggregate investment schedule to shift inwards or the aggregate savings schedule to shift outwards. Chart 9Two Ways For Real Rates To Fall According to the standard “accelerator” model, the optimal level of investment spending is determined by the growth rate of aggregate demand.4 To the extent that slower population growth discourages firms from expanding capacity, this will lead to a lower neutral rate of interest. That said, as noted above, most of the decline in labor force growth in developed economies has already occurred. This implies that investment spending may not fall much further from current levels. What about savings? At the outset, aging will increase savings as more people move into their prime saving years (ages 30-to-50). Declining fertility rates will also tend to reduce spending on children, while allowing more women to join the labor force. Aging could morph from a force that has dragged down the neutral rate of interest to one that will start slowly pushing it back up. Over time, however, aging is likely to reduce the savings rate, as more workers retire, leaving fewer workers in the labor force. Once health care spending is included, consumption actually increases in old age, especially in the last few years of life (Chart 10). Globally, the ratio of workers-to-consumers increased from the early 1970s to the middle of this decade, but has now begun to decline (Chart 11). This suggests that aging could morph from a force that has dragged down the neutral rate of interest to one that will start slowly pushing it back up. Chart 10Savings Over The Life Cycle Chart 11The Worker-To-Consumer Ratio Has Peaked Globally   Instead of running larger deficits to finance pension and health care spending, governments could raise taxes. This would reduce private consumption, thus generating additional savings for the economy. While such a step could prevent the risk-free interest rate from rising, some of the tax burden would likely end up falling on the owners of capital in the form of higher taxes on dividends, capital gains, and business profits. This would lead to lower after-tax profit margins and slower sales growth. The end result would still be the same: weaker equity prices. 4. Aging And The Equity Risk Premium When people discuss the impact that aging baby boomers will have on the stock market, they are usually – whether they realize it or not – talking about the equity risk premium. By definition, for every seller of stock there must be a buyer of stock. If baby boomers start selling shares to finance their retirement spending, someone will need to buy their shares, provided the price is low enough. The question is by how much do share prices need to fall to clear the market? In theory, households should accumulate assets over their working years and then deplete their savings in retirement. In practice, uncertainty about the timing of death, the desire to pass on wealth to future generations, and the need to maintain enough assets to finance unforeseen health care expenses all tend to induce households to run down wealth at only a modest pace during retirement. A study by John Ameriks and Stephen Zeldes using a random sample of 16,000 accounts from a major retirement fund found no evidence that households gradually decrease equity allocations as they age.5 Looking out, it is possible that baby boomers will run down their equity holdings more quickly than prior generations. For instance, the decline in family size over the past fifty years and evolving societal norms may end up causing boomers to bequeath smaller estates than in the past. The increasing popularity of annuities may also reduce the likelihood of unintended bequests. In addition, the proliferation of target-date funds may produce a more rapid shift out of equities than would occur if investors had to consciously decide to reduce exposure to the stock market. Nevertheless, we suspect that any additional selling by baby boomers will only put modest downward pressure on equity prices. This is because the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households hold 84% of all stock market wealth, while the bottom 50% hold less than 1% (Chart 12). Households in the top one percent of the wealth distribution hold close to half of all stocks. These ultra-wealthy households tend to consume a fairly small share of their assets during retirement. As a result, most of their assets end up being bequeathed to family members and/or charities when they pass away. Chart 12The Wealthiest 10% In The U.S. Own The Bulk Of Equities Chart 13Foreign Ownership Of U.S. Stocks Has Grown Foreign purchases of U.S. stocks should also blunt the impact of any selling by retiring baby boomers. Foreigners now hold 27% of U.S. stock market wealth, up from 5% in the mid-1970s (Chart 13). If foreign demand for U.S. equities increases in line with global ex-U.S. real GDP, this will add about $250 billion in demand for U.S. stocks (in constant dollars) over the next twenty years. This is five times greater than the roughly $50 billion in annual net selling that would occur if all investors followed the popular rule of thumb which instructs them to take their age and subtract it from 100 in order to determine how much of their financial wealth to allocate to equities. Investment Implications The discussion above suggests that aging is likely to have a moderately negative, though far from catastrophic, effect on equity prices by: 1) reducing sales growth among listed companies; 2) putting downward pressure on after-tax profit margins; 3) increasing the risk-free rate of interest; and 4) raising the equity risk premium. It is difficult to be precise about how large these effects will turn out to be. Three factors cloud any potential calculation. First, as the equation presented at the outset of this report illustrates, small shifts in any one variable can lead to big changes in the fair value of the stock market. To see this point, let us take the current S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.0% and add 1.5% to account for net share buybacks (gross buybacks less share issuance). This gives a “cash flow to shareholders” yield of 3.5%. Now consider a one percentage-point increase in the equity risk premium. An increase in the equity risk premium of this magnitude would require the cash flow yield to rise to 4.5%. This, in turn, would necessitate that equity prices fall by 22%. That’s a lot. The second factor that makes it difficult to be precise about the extent to which demographic changes will affect stock prices is that there are likely to be interaction effects among the variables in the equation above. For instance, rising labor shortages stemming from the withdrawal of baby boomers from the labor market could put downward pressure on profit margins. The resulting increase in labor’s share of income would likely boost aggregate demand, thereby contributing to a higher neutral rate of interest. Chart 14Japan’s Population Bust Was Largely Foreseen At this point, one of two things could happen. On the one hand, if central banks failed to raise rates, this would cause the economy to overheat, leading to higher inflation. Higher inflation could push up the equity risk premium, as was the case in the 1970s. On the other hand, if central banks did raise interest rates, this could cause debt burdens to become unsustainable. That could also push up the equity risk premium. The third factor that makes it challenging to estimate the impact of demographics on stocks is that it is difficult to know the proper baseline for computing the effects of aging on stock market valuations. To the extent that the variables in the equation are all forward-looking, they should incorporate the market’s views on how the retirement of baby boomers will affect the relevant drivers of equity returns. This implies that shifts in equity valuations must stem from forecast revisions rather than from anticipated trends. Thus, as an example, any change to the “sales growth” term should be properly viewed as expressing not how future sales growth will differ from past sales growth, but by how much future sales growth will differ from what investors are currently projecting. It is tempting to assume that the market has already priced in the impact of population aging.  After all, the fact that baby boomers are exiting the labor force is not exactly breaking news. Yet, in the past, markets have proven to be surprisingly oblivious to easy-to-predict demographic developments. For example, Japanese investors were keen to buy stocks and real estate in the late 1980s, despite the fact that published projections at the time showed that the country’s working-age population would decline at an accelerating pace over the subsequent decade (Chart 14). Academic work supports the view that investors tend to understate the importance of demographic forces. Stefano Della Vigna and Joshua Pollet have shown that a trading strategy that exploits predictable age-related changes in spending on such items as toys, bicycles, beer, and life insurance would have earned an annualized risk-adjusted return of approximately six percent.6 Chart 15Poor Long-Term Returns In Store For U.S. Stocks The fact that equity valuations today are stretched in the U.S., and no better than middling in the rest of the world, should add to investor concerns. Chart 15 shows that the ratio of household equity holdings-to-total financial assets has been an extremely reliable predictor of 10-year equity returns in the post-war era. Today, this indicator is pointing to low single-digit returns for U.S. stocks over the next decade. This suggests that even if the headwinds to equities from population aging turn out to be minimal, long-term investors will still earn subpar returns from stocks relative to recent history. In such an environment, a nimble investment approach, which focuses on the state of the business cycle among other things, will be necessary for generating alpha. As discussed in our recently published Strategy Outlook, investors should maintain a cyclically bullish stance towards stocks for the time being, but begin paring back exposure late next year in advance of a recession in 2021.7   Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1      Robert T. Kiyosaki, and Sharon L. Lechter, “Rich Dad's Prophecy: Why the Biggest Stock Market Crash in History Is Still Coming...And How You Can Prepare Yourself and Profit from It!” Time Warner, 2003. 2      James Heckman and Paul LaFontaine, "The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels," The Review of Economics and Statistics 92:2, (May 2010): 244–262. 3      Please see Rajesh Iyer, Timothy H. Reisenwitz, and Jacqueline K. Eastman, “The Impact Of Cognitive Age On Seniors’ Lifestyles,” Marketing Management Journal, 18:2, (Fall 2008); and Komal Gyani Karani, and Katherine A. Fraccastoro, “Resistance To Brand Switching: The Elderly Consumer,“ Journal of Business & Economics Research, 8:12, (December 2010). 4      In most economic models, the capital-to-output ratio is assumed to converge towards a stable level over time. By definition, the capital stock in Year t is determined by the capital stock in Year t-1 plus whatever net investment (gross investment minus depreciation) takes place in Year t. In general, the optimal net investment-to-GDP ratio will equal the product of the capital-to-output ratio and the growth rate of GDP. For example, suppose that the capital-to-output ratio is three (meaning that the capital stock is three times as large as GDP). If output does not change from one year to the next, no additional net investment would be necessary to maintain a stable capital-to-output ratio. However, if output is growing at 2%, net investment of 3X2%=6% of GDP would be required. 5      John Ameriks and Stephen P. Zeldes, “How Do Household Portfolio Shares Vary with Age?” Working Paper, 2004. 6      Stefano Della Vigna, and Joshua M. Pollet, “Demographics and Industry Returns,” American Economic Review, 97:5 (2007). 7      Please see Global Investment Strategy, “Second Quarter 2019 Strategy Outlook: From Dead Zone To End Zone,” dated March 29, 2019.   Strategy & Market Trends MacroQuant Model And Current Subjective Scores Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades

  Underweight The relative resilience of consumer discretionary stocks has been puzzling over the past two years. Typically, rising interest rates prelude a period of underperformance in these highly rate sensitive stocks (fed funds rate shown inverted, bottom panel) but the divergence has grown exceptionally wide. Regardless, we believe our negative thesis is sound. Consumer confidence is near record highs (though it has started to decline), which appears to be driving the relative share price gains but consumer credit has not followed suit (second panel), implying consumers are not backing up their positivity with their wallets. The sell-side too appears to discount soaring consumer confidence as earnings estimates have not kept pace with share prices, driving sector valuations to a 25% premium to the broad market and well above sustainable average levels (third panel). However, this is partially explained by Amazon, which carries roughly 30% weight in the S&P consumer discretionary index but only 12.5% of operating profit, and its exceptional outperformance since the beginning of 2018. Nonetheless, we expect retail sales to follow the opposite path of interest rates, as it always has in past cycles, and a derating to occur. Bottom Line: We reiterate our below-benchmark allocation rating on the S&P consumer discretionary index as valuations have grown excessive and BCA’s view remains that interest rates are near their trough.

Highlights Foreign investors have been rushing into Indian equities in anticipation of a Modi win. While Modi’s chances are reasonable, he may not win an outright majority. Keep tactically underweighting Indian stocks for now. The structural outlook for Vietnam is strong and improving. A bottom in Vietnamese equities is in the making. Investors should overweight Vietnamese stocks within an EM equity portfolio. Feature Indian Equities: A Window Of Risk Remains Foreign investors have been rushing into Indian equities in anticipation of a win by current Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the upcoming general elections. As a result, Indian stocks have been outperforming the EM benchmark. Nevertheless, a window of risk for the Indian bourse remains. While Modi’s chances of winning the elections are reasonable, he and his party – the Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP – may not win an outright majority in the lower house, as occurred in May 2014. While Modi’s chances of winning the elections are reasonable, he and his party – the Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP – may not win an outright majority in the lower house, as occurred in May 2014. The basis for Modi not being able to win an outright majority is that rural area incomes have weakened substantially due to falling food prices (Chart I-1). Corroborating this distress in rural areas, stock prices of rural-exposed companies have massively underperformed urban-exposed ones (Chart I-2). Chart I-1India's Food Prices Have Been Falling Despite Low Rainfall Chart I-2Rural-Exposed Stocks Have Massively Underperformed Urban Stocks   Even though both monetary and fiscal policies are easing, these macro policies always work with a time lag and will not improve domestic growth before the elections. A BJP-led minority-government will force Modi to increasingly rely on his allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition. The prime minister will then be forced to frequently offer concessions, watering down his reform agenda. The BJP’s allies in the NDA coalition are not necessarily as market-friendly. This is why we believe such an outcome would upset Indian financial markets after its most recent outperformance. Meanwhile, rural demand weakness has spilled over into the broader Indian economy. Passenger car sales, as well as sales of two- and three-wheelers are on the verge of contraction, and growth in tractor sales is falling sharply (Chart I-3). Chart I-3Indian Cyclical Growth Is Decelerating Chart I-4Indian EPS Growth Will Likely Contract Moreover, the bottom panel of Chart I-3 illustrates that the production of intermediate goods is contracting and manufacturing production is decelerating. Worryingly, the domestic growth slowdown has stalled EPS growth for the overall market, and net profit margins are falling (Chart I-4). The large-cap equity index has so far disregarded poor earnings performance, which magnifies the risk to Indian stocks if the BJP fails to win a majority government. Notably, small-cap stocks have failed to advance much and have not corroborated the rally in large-caps (Chart I-5). India’s stock market breadth is also poor, which is a bad omen for the sustainability of the current rally (Chart I-6). Chart I-5India Small Cap Stock Are Not Confirming The Rally Chart I-6India's Stock Market Breadth Is Poor   Finally, rising oil prices will negatively impact India’s trade balance dynamics (Chart I-7, top panel). The stock market’s relative performance has diverged from the recent rise in oil prices – an unsustainable trend (Chart I-7, bottom panel).           Investment Recommendations Chart I-7Higher Oil Prices Are Not Discounted By Indian Equities The Indian economy will remain weak over the next several months, which places Modi’s majority re-election bid at risk. Beyond the elections, fiscal and monetary easing will kick in and boost cyclical growth in the second half of the year. Food prices are also beginning to pick up due to below average rainfall (Chart I-1, page 1). The latter will revive rural income and by extension spending. We recommend tactically underweighting Indian stocks for now. A better entry point to upgrade will likely emerge in the next few months as euphoria surrounding the upcoming elections comes to an end and a growth slowdown is finally priced in. For fixed-income investors, we recommend continuing to bet on yield-curve steepening. A dovish central bank will cut interest rates and keep them low. This, along with fiscal easing, will revive growth later this year. A growth recovery and rising food inflation will lift the long end of the yield curve.   Ayman Kawtharani, Associate Editor ayman@bcaresearch.com   Vietnam: Structural Tailwinds Getting Stronger; Buy On A Dip Our negative call on Vietnamese stocks since last May has turned out well.1 The significant deceleration in export growth alongside the selloff in broader emerging markets has generated a double-digit drop in Vietnamese stock prices over the past 12 months (Chart II-1, top panel). Chart II-1Vietnamese Equities: An Upturn Is Ahead Looking forward, a new upturn in Vietnamese equities is in the making. The structural outlook for Vietnam is strong and improving. Investors should overweight Vietnamese stocks within an EM equity portfolio (Chart II-1, bottom panel). Shifting Supply Chain For some time, companies in China have been moving their supply chain to Vietnam due to its cheap labor, inexpensive land and supportive policies. The geopolitical confrontation between the U.S. and China that began last year has served to accelerate this process. The U.S. and China may soon reach a trade deal. This will give Chinese manufacturers and multinational companies more time to prepare for their relocation, but it will not stop the ongoing supply chain shift. Both multinationals and Chinese producers would prefer to have alternative supply chains that are not exposed to a potential re-escalation in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China in the years to come.2 Chart II-2 shows that Chinese companies have nearly tripled their foreign direct investment in Vietnam over the past nine months. The surge in relocations from the mainland has boosted land prices and wages in Vietnam significantly. For example, the rental price of industrial land at Giang Dien industrial park on a long-term lease of up to 50 years has risen as much as 50% to US$90 per square meter last October from US$60-70 a year ago. The relocations have occurred not only for low-value-added companies such as textile and footwear makers, but also for high-value-add companies like electronics assembly producers. According to the Chairman of Shenzhen-Vietnam Industrial Park, most of the companies that established factories in the park last year have been focused on light processing such as electronic assembly. Chart II-2Accelerating Supply Chain Shift Chart II-3Strong U.S. Imports From Vietnam Chart II-3 shows that U.S. imports from Vietnam have been much stronger than those from China and the rest of the world. This may be the result of both the accelerated supply chain shift last year and the structural competitiveness of Vietnamese goods. Vietnam continues to take market share from China in global markets such as footwear, garments and electronics (Chart II-4). Both multinationals and Chinese producers would prefer to have alternative supply chains that are not exposed to a potential re-escalation in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China in the years to come. In fact, rising FDIs have already led to a growth rebound in imports among foreign invested enterprises (FIE), heralding an export growth acceleration in the months ahead (Chart II-5). FIEs import most of the input materials they need to manufacture their goods, which are then exported overseas. This is why this segment’s imports lead export growth. Chart II-4Vietnam: Taking More Market Share From China Chart II-5Rising FIE Imports Herald Export Growth Acceleration   Escaping A Global Slowdown In Smartphone Demand The biggest contributor to Vietnam’s current account and trade surplus has been the smartphone sector (Chart II-6). However, the ongoing downturn in global smartphone shipments may not affect Vietnam due to the latter’s gains in the global smartphone production and assembly market share: Vietnam mobile phone output (mostly Samsung smartphones) fell only slightly (1.2%) last year when Samsung smartphone shipments contracted by 8% (Chart II-7). This reflected Vietnam’s strong competitiveness relative to the other five countries where Samsung smartphones are manufactured: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Korea. Over half of Samsung smartphones were produced in Vietnam last year. Chart II-6Phone Sector: The Biggest Driver Of Vietnamese Trade Surplus Chart II-7Vietnam May Withstand Well In A Global Smartphone Demand Slowdown Last December, Samsung closed its Chinese Tianjin plant. Without any additional production reductions in other plants, total Samsung capacity will be cut by about 7%. This further lowers the odds of a considerable production cut in Vietnam in the case of a further drop in global smartphone demand. Other Encouraging Signs Many other positive signs have emerged that point to a cyclical upturn ahead for Vietnam: Chart II-8Strong Domestic Demand Retail sales growth has been accelerating, and automobile sales have reached new highs, suggesting strong domestic demand (Chart II-8). Despite declining visitor arrivals, the country’s tourism revenue still grew at a robust 10% pace last year. In 2019, the country is expecting a 15% year-on-year growth in visitor arrivals. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which came into force for Vietnam in January, and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which will take effect later this year, will be highly beneficial to the Vietnamese economy. Both headline and core inflation are low. The country’s foreign reserves also jumped by 14% over the past 12 months to a record high of US$63.5 billion, equivalent to 26% of GDP. Investment Recommendations We recommend buying Vietnamese equities on dips. Dedicated equity investors should overweight Vietnam in an EM equity portfolio: The Vietnamese property market is booming on surging income growth and low interest rates. The real estate sector accounts for 45% of the MSCI Vietnam Index and 28% of the VN All-Share Index. According to CBRE Vietnam, there was a sharp rise in overseas investors in Vietnamese real estate in 2018, particularly from China. The real estate services firm reported that Chinese customers accounted for 44% of total transactions in the first nine months of 2018. In 2017, there was a 21% year-on-year increase in Chinese buyers. Buoyant household income growth is positive for consumer staples stocks, which accounts for 34% of the MSCI Vietnam Index and 8% of the VN All-Shares Index. Buoyant household income growth is positive for consumer staples stocks, which accounts for 34% of the MSCI Vietnam Index and 8% of the VN All-Shares Index. Vietnamese corporate earnings will outpace broader EM EPS, warranting equity market outperformance (Chart II-9). Vietnam's inclusion into some influential EM equity indices would significantly boost interest from foreign investors (Chart II-10). Chart II-9Vietnamese Corporate Earnings Growth: Better Than EM Chart II-10Rising Interest From Foreign Investors   Technically, it seems the correction in Vietnamese stocks is late, and that the equity market will resume its upturn sooner rather than later.   Ellen JingYuan He, Associate Vice President Emerging Markets Strategy ellenj@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see Frontier Markets Strategy Special Report titled “Vietnamese Equities: Take A Step Back For Now, ” dated May 15, 2018. Available at fms.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see Geopolitical Strategy and China Investment Strategy Special Report titled “China-U.S. Trade: A Structural Deal?” dated March 6, 2019. Available at gps.bcaresearch.com. Equity Recommendations Fixed-Income, Credit And Currency Recommendations

In Monday’s Special Report, we answered clients’ most frequently asked questions from our recent marketing trip to the old continent. Front of mind for most of our clients was the recent broadening out of the U.S. yield curve inversion to the 10/fed funds rate and especially the implications of the inversion for sector positioning and the duration of the business cycle. From an equity strategy point of view, we are focused on the SPX’s performance following the yield curve inversion and, within that framework, the appropriate sectoral positioning therein. In mid-December last year we showed the results of our research and made a simple observation that the 10/2 yield curve inversion (which, importantly, has not yet occurred) almost always takes place prior to the S&P peak.1 In Monday’s Special Report, we broadened this analysis to show the S&P 500’s return and the sector returns from the time the 10/2 yield curve slope inverts until the S&P peaks, and we summarize the results in the table below. While every cycle is different, clearly it pays to have energy exposure more often than not. In contrast, high-yielding defensive sectors like utilities and telecom services fare poorly in these late-cycle iterations. Please see our Special Report for answers to other client questions.   1      Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “ Signal Vs. Noise,” dated December 17, 2018, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.