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Fiscal

Is Brazil’s Rate Hike Warranted?
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s decision to raise interest rates is supported by recent economic data. Back in January of this year,  they noted that Brazil would overshoot its 2024 growth and inflation…
Daily Insights
China Needs Fiscal, Not Monetary Easing
The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term…
Daily Insights
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Yes, There Are Imbalances In The US Economy

The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Chinese Deflation Pressures Worsened In August
China’s CPI and PPI both surprised to the downside in August. Consumer prices grew from 0.5% y/y to 0.6%, below the 0.7% anticipated. However, a 2.8% y/y surge in food prices (the fastest pace so far this year) overstates this headline figure. Core CPI…
Daily Insights
US GDI Lags GDP In This Cycle
Significantly stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth led to an upward revision to US GDP growth in Q2. That said, gross domestic income (GDI) has been lagging behind GDP. It increased 1.3% q/q in Q2, at the same rate as in Q1, and well below Q2’s…
Daily Insights
Base Effects Boost Chinese Industrial Profits In July
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’ profits rose 5.0%. The NBS reported that…
Daily Insights
Equities And Elections
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…
Daily Insights
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US Equities: What To Select For The President Elect
Special Report

Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Pratik Bhanuse, Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
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How ‘Bout Them Apples

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Loans To China’s Real Economy Contracts For First Time In Two Decades
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through July. Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. New loans grew CNY 0.2bn to CNY 13.5bn, below the CNY…
Daily Insights

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