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Geopolitics In Q2 2024

In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
EM Small Caps Bucking the Trend
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
Daily Insights
The Dynamics Of Bitcoin ETF Inflows
The bitcoin ETFs are breaking several records. The Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from Blackrock is closing in on $20 billion in assets, surpassing ETF heavy weights like Ishares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Ishares Japan (EWJ) and Ishares TIP Bond ETF (TIP).…
Daily Insights
Are Materials Stocks A Buy?
Global material stocks have underperformed over the past 12 months, returning only 11.3% vs 21.4% for the overall market. But could they be a buy now? There are several arguments to argue that they will: The ISM has begun to stabilize and seems to be…
Daily Insights
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Gold And Bitcoin Joined At The Hip

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Minimum Volatility Equities
Investors typically associate high-flying tech stocks with high sensitivity to interest rates. The rationale is simple: Given that most of their cashflows are further into the future, their value will be more sensitive to changes in their discounter. And…
Daily Insights
The Signal From The Rising Silver-To-Gold Ratio
Commodities are making headlines with the prices of crude oil, copper, and gold all making sizeable gains since mid-February. Multiple forces have been cited as drivers of the rally across these commodities. Increased geopolitical risks amid concern of a…
Daily Insights
Bitcoin Speculative Shorts Are Not What They Seem
Short speculative positions on Bitcoin at the CME are near theie highest level on record. Some financial commentators have suggested that this bearish positioning in bitcoin could act as kindle and spark a short squeeze. But looking at raw speculative…
Daily Insights
What Is Driving Gold?
Gold prices reached $2300 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday. They have now rallied by more than 12% so far this year. To a degree the furious rally in gold has been puzzling. Who has been buying? It certainly has not been private investors. Global…
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: The Dollar Rally Will Likely Fade

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev

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