Inflation/Deflation
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July. Earlier this year, the team predicted…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with a 25bp hike yesterday, bringing the policy rate up to a 22-year high of 4.75%. This ended the pause on rate hikes announced back in March, which only ended up lasting two meetings. The Canadian bond market…
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting statement stressed that at 7%,…
The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…