Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Inflation/Deflation

f_image_20240131_165032.PNG
Portfolio
Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Garry Evans
2 years ago
Essentials
NOK And The Inflation Problem For Norway
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major…
2 years ago
Essentials
Sluggish Economic Conditions Persist In China
China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which inched up by 0.2 points in January –…
2 years ago
Essentials
Powell Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…
2 years ago
Essentials
Decelerating ECI Consistent With Easing Price Pressures
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest pace of quarterly increase since 2021Q2…
2 years ago
f_image_20240131_113841.PNG
CoreMacro
The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Dhaval Joshi
2 years ago
Essentials
Dallas Fed Survey Corroborates Pessimistic Signal From Other Regional Fed Banks
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the headline manufacturing activity index collapse from…
2 years ago
Essentials
Deflationary Pressures Are Dampening Chinese Industrial Profits
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth came in at 16.8% y/y in December…
2 years ago
f_image_20240126_190027.PNG
Equities
Happily Ever After?

A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of rate cuts may disappoint. Second, the recession has been delayed but not avoided. Further, geopolitical risk is elevated. We will overweight Tech on the next dip and upgrade Retail to an overweight.

Irene Tunkel
2 years ago
US Equities
f_image_20240126_161208.PNG
CoreMacro
A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
2 years ago
Europe

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics