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Norway

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.

The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI cooled to 3.2% y/y in August,…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the domestic economy does not really explain the recent weakness in the Norwegian krone. Some of this weakness can be attributed to structural and idiosyncratic factors, one being persistent…
Special Report

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on Thursday. The SNB continued its dovish…

We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.

As we discussed in a recent Insight, the krone is the top pick for our Foreign Exchange Strategy team. The krone upgrade is one of the most significant changes in our colleagues’ attractiveness ranking model. Norway has the perfect storm of sticky inflation,…
Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are catching up to the improvement we…

In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.

Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade account and will provide…