Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in anticipation of a global slowdown. The…
Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10. A cascade of shifting opinion…
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given…
Following a 12-year-long bear market, Greek equities have returned a whopping 186% in EUR terms from their 2016 lows. The Greek macroeconomic backdrop has indeed improved. Since 2021, Greece’s nominal GDP growth has exceeded the pace of growth in…
Despite global bond yields having trended lower since April, bonds have only started outperforming equities since July in US dollar terms. We expect this outperformance to persist going forward. Sentiment has largely driven the equity market rally this…
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis, though at a decelerating pace in the US…
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Eurozone GDP’s final estimate indicates that growth was slower than expected in Q2. Output grew 0.2% q/q in Q2, compared to 0.3% previously reported. A significant downward revision to capex (2.2% contraction against 1.8% previously estimated) drove the…