Sectors

Highlights A major investment theme for the coming years will be the resynchronization of developed economy monetary policies. Expect substantial further convergence between U.S. T-bond yields and both German bund yields and Swedish bond yields. This yield convergence necessarily supports the currency crosses EUR/USD and SEK/USD. Underweight U.K. consumer services versus the FTSE100. Overweight German consumer services versus the DAX. The September 24 German election and October 1 proposed referendum on Catalan independence are not major catalysts for the financial markets. Feature A major investment theme for the coming years will be the resynchronization of developed economy monetary policies. As monetary policy resynchronizes, it will become clear that the extreme desynchronization of monetary policies over the past few years was the great anomaly (Chart of the Week and Chart I-2). This anomaly reached its peak in 2014 when policies at the ECB and the Federal Reserve moved in diametrically opposite directions. The ECB signalled the start of its quantitative easing just as the Fed began to end its own. Chart of the WeekThe Desynchronization Of Monetary##br## Policy Was An Anomaly Chart I-2The Desynchronization Of Monetary##br## Policy Was An Anomaly Why Did Monetary Policy Desynchronize? The extreme desynchronization of monetary policy would not have happened if it was just about economics. On the basis of the hard economic data, the ECB could have emulated the unconventional policies of the Fed, BoJ and BoE years before it eventually did in 2015. If it had, ECB policy would have been much more synchronized with the other major central banks. However, unconventional monetary policy wasn't, and isn't, just about economics. The ECB faced, and still faces, much tougher political and technical hurdles than other central banks. The euro area does not have one government, it has 19. The ECB had to convince sceptical core euro area governments that zero and negative interest rate policy and bond buying were not just a bailout for the periphery, especially with the euro debt crisis so fresh in the mind. Likewise, the euro area does not have one sovereign bond, it has 19. To design and implement an asset purchase program in the euro area is much more complicated than in the U.S., Japan or the U.K. But by mid-2014 it had become clear that each wave of unconventional monetary easing - through its impact on exchange rates - had allowed other major economies to 'steal' some inflation from the euro area (Chart I-3). With the ECB still undershooting its inflation mandate, it was becoming a dereliction of duty for the ECB not to do what the Fed, BoJ and BoE had already done several years earlier. As the saying goes, it is better for a reputation to fail conventionally, than to succeed unconventionally. Chart I-3Currency Depreciations "Steal" Inflation From Other Economies Why Will Monetary Policy Resynchronize? Three years and several trillion euros later, the ECB can feel it has had a fair crack at unconventional easing (Chart I-4). At the same time, the central bank must contend with fresh political and technical hurdles. How many more German bunds can it realistically buy without irking Germany's policymakers? Chart I-4The ECB Has Had A Fair Crack At QE The ECB is also aware that ultra-loose monetary policy - by compressing banks' net interest margins - endangers banks' fragile profitability. This impairs the bank credit channel which is the mainstay of private sector credit intermediation in the euro area.1 Meanwhile, the euro area's configuration of solid economic growth, solid job growth and subdued inflation is common to most large developed economies (the exception is the U.K. which we explain below). Putting all of this together, the theme for the coming years has to be monetary policy resynchronization, one way or the other. One way is that the more hawkish central banks will become less hawkish, as subdued inflation limits the scope for monetary policy tightening. The other way is that the more dovish central banks will become less dovish as the benefits of ultra-accommodation diminish and the costs rise. Or, both ways will happen together. Nowhere are negative bond yields more absurd and more inappropriate than in Sweden (Chart I-5). In just three years the economy has grown 12% and house prices have surged 50%. Furthermore, unlike in other parts of Europe, the housing market in Sweden did not suffer a meaningful setback in either 2008 or 2011. Yet Sweden's negative interest rate policy means that it stills pays people to borrow and further bid up house prices. If anywhere is at risk of a bubble from ultra-accommodative monetary policy, Sweden must be it. For bond yield spreads and currencies - which are relative trades - it doesn't really matter how the resynchronization of monetary policies occurs. We expect substantial further convergence between U.S. T-bond yields and both German bund yields and Swedish bond yields. And this yield convergence necessarily supports the currency crosses EUR/USD and SEK/USD (Chart I-6). Chart 5A Negative Bond Yield ##br##In Sweden Is Absurd Chart I-6If The Swedish Bond Yield Shortfall ##br##Compresses, The Krona Will Rally The Myth Of The Beneficial Currency Devaluation Sharp depreciations in a currency result in an economy 'stealing' inflation from its major trading partners. Chart I-7 and Chart I-8 suggest that absent the post Brexit vote slump in the pound, the gap between U.K. and euro area inflation would be almost 1% less than it is. Chart I-7The Weaker Pound Lifted ##br##U.K. Headline Inflation... Chart I-8...And U.K. ##br##Core Inflation So the Brexit vote explains why the U.K. is one of the few major economies where inflation is running well north of 2%. Unfortunately for U.K. households, nominal wage inflation has not followed price inflation higher. Which means that the pound's weakness has choked households' real incomes. Against this, textbook economic theory says that a currency devaluation should make a country's exports more competitive and thereby boost the net export contribution to economic growth. But in the textbook the only thing that is supposed to change is the exchange rate. The textbook assumes that the country's trading framework with its partners remains unchanged. In the case of the U.K. leaving the EU, this assumption clearly does not apply, mitigating the concept of the 'beneficial currency devaluation'. A lot of the benefits of the textbook devaluation come because firms can trade in markets that were previously unprofitable to them. This process requires investment - for example, in marketing and distribution. If Brexit means that many of those markets are no longer available, or come with tariffs, then firms will hold off making the necessary investments - unless the currency devaluation is massive. But in this case, the corresponding surge in inflation and choke on households' real incomes would also be massive. We also hear the myth of the beneficial currency devaluation applied to the weaker members of the euro area. As in, why don't these countries just break free from the euro, and devalue their way to prosperity? The simple answer is that if they left the euro, they would also risk losing access to the largest single market in the world - defeating the whole purpose of the beneficial currency devaluation! A Tale Of Two Consumers Chart I-9A Good Pair Trade: Long German Consumer ##br##Services, Short U.K. Consumer Services For the time being, hawkish comments from the BoE have given the pound a boost. But U.K. consumer spending now faces one of two headwinds. If the BoE follows through with a rate hike, household borrowing is likely to fade as a driver of spending. Alternatively, if the BoE backs off from its threat, the pound will once again weaken, push up inflation and weigh on real incomes. So for the time being, stay underweight U.K. consumer services versus the FTSE100. In Germany, the opposite logic applies. Stay overweight German consumer services versus the DAX. Euro strength helps German consumers in as much as it reduces the prices of imported food and energy. But for German exporters, the strong euro hurts the translation of their multi-currency international profits back into local currency terms. A good pair trade is to be long German consumer services, short U.K. consumer services (Chart I-9). Finally, regarding two upcoming political events - the September 24 German election and the October 1 proposed referendum on Catalan independence, we do not see either as a major catalyst for the financial markets. In the case of the German election, it is because no likely outcome is especially malign (or benign). In the case of the Catalan referendum, it is because it will be hard to draw any meaningful conclusion from the result, given that Madrid has ruled the referendum illegal - and many 'unionists' are unlikely to participate. Please note that there is no Weekly Report scheduled for next week as I will be at our New York Conference. I hope to see some of you there. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 In the euro area, small and medium sized companies tend to access credit through banks rather than through the bond market. Fractal Trading Model This week, we note an excessive underperformance of U.K. personal and household goods (dominated by BAT, Unilever, Reckitt Benckiser) versus U.K. food and beverages (dominated by Diageo and Associated British Foods). Go long U.K. personal and household goods versus U.K. food and beverages with a profit target / stop loss of 4.5%. In other trades, short nickel / long silver hit its 8% profit target, while short MSCI China / long MSCI EM hit its 2.5% stop loss. This leaves three open trades. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. Chart I-10 The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations

We raised the S&P air freight & logistics group to overweight earlier this year based principally on the index being a chief beneficiary should green shoots in global trade proliferate. Since then, global export expectations have shot higher and global ton miles have staged the best recovery since the GFC (second panel). Anecdotally on its earnings call this week, FedEx called this year the "best year for global trade in years". Despite the overwhelmingly positive backdrop, the air freight & logistics index has barely budged. The result is that valuation multiples have collapsed to a fifteen year low (bottom panel). We continue to think the positive earnings momentum in this index can be ignored for only so long; the air freight & logistics group should see a long-overdue rerating. We reiterate our high-conviction overweight recommendation. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5AIRF - UPS, FDX, CHRW, EXPD.

Special Report

Highlights A shares are under-owned and under-researched beyond Chinese borders. Global investors' interest on Chinese A shares will inevitably increase. The A-share market historically has been a low-beta play, and the Chinese domestic sectors tend to move together with one another rather than with their respective global sector benchmarks. The superior long-term performance of Chinese equities has been accompanied with much greater volatility in both earnings and prices compared with EM and DM benchmarks. Some larger-weight sectors, particularly banks, have significantly dragged down the valuation matrix of the broad A-share market, while some smaller-weight sectors are more dearly valued. Overall A shares are still more expensive compared with other global bourses. Feature The MSCI's decision of partial inclusion of Chinese domestic A shares in its widely followed EM and world equity indices has put this asset class on global investors' radar screens. The A-share market, which only began to develop some 30 years ago as a trial balloon for capitalism, has already become the world's second-largest by market capitalization. Yet it remains decisively mysterious outside Chinese borders. Not only is the market notoriously volatile, alternately driven by euphoria and panics, it has also been largely isolated from the outside world thanks to China's capital account controls. All of this has made global investors either unable or unwilling to commit to this asset class, which also means it is both under-owned and under-researched from global investors' perspective. This trend will inevitably change, as the Chinese economy continues to gain global significance and as Chinese regulators continue to liberalize capital account control measures. The People's Bank of China is reportedly drafting a policy package to further open up the country's financial sector to foreigners. This week's report intends to shed light on this obscure asset class. A Class Of Its Own The A-share market's juvenile and isolated nature has generated some unique features that are not only different from global and EM bourses, but also from their overseas-listed investable peers. First, Chinese A shares have a systemically lower correlation with other major global bourses, which is not surprising due to the market's isolation from global fund flows. The three-year moving beta of the market with the S&P 500 is slightly over 0.5, according to our calculation - much lower than both EM and Chinese investable equities.1 A shares' correlation with the rest of the world, however, has been steadily rising in the past 10 years (Chart 1). Foreign capital has indeed been given increasing access to A shares in the past decade through various channels such as qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs), the RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFIIs) and more recently the "connect" programs linking Hong Kong Exchange with mainland bourses (Chart 2). However, we doubt A shares' rising beta has much to do with China's capital account liberation, as foreign ownership is still negligible. Rather, we suspect it is more due to China's rising importance in the global economy. In other words, global markets have become increasingly sensitive to the "China factor" that is also driving A shares. Chart 1A Shares' Low And Rising Beta Chart 2Rising Foreign Access To A shares Moreover, A shares' low correlation with other global markets can also be observed at the sector level. Table 1 summarizes A-share sectors' correlations with their respective EM and DM sector benchmarks as well as their China investable counterparts, which are categorically lower than the cross-sector correlations among other markets. For example, A-share energy stocks' correlations with their sector counterparts in the China investable universe, EM and DM are 0.58, 0.48 and 0.36, respectively. In comparison, China investable energy stocks have a correlation of 0.84 and 0.72, respectively with the EM and DM sector benchmarks, and the EM energy sector's correlation with its DM counterpart is 0.8. In other words, sector selection rather than country selection matters fundamentally for the performances of DM and EM focused portfolios, including investable China funds. A-share sector performances, however, have shown much greater idiosyncrasy from the general sector trends in global markets. Table 1A shares Sectors Are Less Correlated With Global Peers... Instead, there have been much stronger correlations among the performances of A-share sectors compared with their investable peers and other global bourses. Appendix 1 provides a detailed breakdown of cross-sector correlations of these major markets. Taken together, the average cross-sector correlation among A shares is 0.75, compared with about 0.55 in all other markets (Chart 3). This, in our view, is likely due to exceptionally high retail investor participation in the A-share market. Unlikely other markets that are largely driven by sophisticated institutional investors with research capabilities, Chinese A shares are to a much greater extent driven by herd-following retail investors, who put little emphasis on fundamentals. Anecdotal evidence abounds that investors buy or sell a stock based on price per share rather than per share earnings metrics, and naively chase laggards in anticipation of a catchup, even without clear fundamental catalysts. This could change as institutional investors take a greater share in A-share market trading and ownership, but the process will be slow and gradual. Chart 3... But Are Closely Correlated ##br##Among Each Other In short, the A-share market historically has been a low-beta play, and the Chinese domestic sectors tend to move together with one another rather than with their respective global sector benchmarks. From a portfolio management of view, including A shares should provide diversification benefits in managed global and EM portfolios. Greater Returns... Since its inception in the early 1990s, Chinese A shares have been on a powerful and volatile uptrend (Chart 4). The market has followed a well-defined central trendline, but with extreme price moves on both sides, alternating between massive overshoots and undershoots. Measured by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, launched in 1991 with the longest price history, stock prices have increased by over 20-fold since 1991 in RMB terms. Since 2000, A-shares' total return index, price appreciation and dividend income combined has rallied by about five-fold in U.S. dollar terms - massively outperforming both global and EM benchmarks as well as investable Chinese stocks (Chart 5). A-shares' outperformance against global bourses is largely due to faster earnings growth rather than multiples expansion. Earnings of Chinese domestic and investable shares have risen by seven- and 10-fold respectively since 2000, both outpacing their EM and DM peers (Chart 5, middle panel). Importantly, while DM has been the bright spot in the ongoing multi-year bull market, it has been a chronic laggard over a more extended time horizon - both earnings and total returns of DM have significantly lagged EM in general and Chinese shares in particular since 2000. It is commonly argued that economic growth has little to do with stock market performance, and therefore a country's superior growth outlook does not necessarily lead to superior equity returns for investors. We find this view plausible. There is no question that the near-term correlation between a country's economic growth and stock prices is low empirically. However, economic growth should be a defining factor for asset returns over the long run. After all, stock prices are ultimately driven by earnings, which in turn are driven by economic growth. Granted, stock markets are an emotional discounting mechanism, and prices can and do deviate from earnings fundamentals from time to time - they will inevitably mean-revert over the long run. Chinese GDP has expanded by a staggering 10-fold since 2000 in dollar terms, which is the fundamental driving force behind China's long-term earnings growth and stock market returns (Chart 5, bottom panel). Chart 4A shares Powerful And Volatile Long-term Uptrend Chart 5GDP, Earnings And Stocks Prices ... With Greater Risks The superior long-term performance of Chinese equities, however, has been accompanied with much greater volatility in both earnings and prices compared with EM and DM benchmarks. This is easy to observe in the dramatic fluctuations in A-share prices; from its inception, the market has been routinely characterized by massive boom-bust cycles. Table 2 summarizes the historical returns of A shares in comparison with their investable and EM/DM peers. A few points are worth highlighting. Table 2Statistical Summary Chart 6A Shares' volatility Is High... First, the A-share market has historically yielded much greater dispersion of returns compared with other bourses, including Chinese investable stocks, as shown in the box-and-whisker plot (Chart 6).2 Since 2000, the A-share market has achieved the highest cumulative returns among all markets, but it has also recorded the biggest monthly gain and deepest monthly loss. It has the widest gap between first-quartile and third quartile returns, the greatest risk of loss and the biggest historical value at risk (VaR)(See Appendix 2 for return distributions of various markets). Overall, the standard deviation of A-share monthly returns historically is 8.4%, compared with 7.7% for the Chinese investable market and 6.4% and 4.4% respectively for the EM and DM benchmarks. On a risk-adjusted basis, A shares have delivered the highest risk-adjusted returns since 2000, but the risk-return profile has been decisively poorer evaluated in both a five- and 10-year horizon (Table 3). The Sharpe ratio of A shares since 2000 is 0.39, compared with 0.35 and 0.23 for EM and DM benchmarks.3 Over a five-year and 10-year period, however, A shares' Sharpe ratios were significantly lower than other markets. Similarly, A shares' Sortino ratio since 2000 was superior, but inferior over shorter-term horizons. In contrast, DM has delivered the highest risk-adjusted returns in the past five years and 10 years, but has lagged since 2000. Indeed, DM stocks, particularly the U.S. market, have delivered stellar performance since the aftermath of the global financial crisis with very low volatility, while Chinese equities and EM stocks in general have been plagued with numerous macro concerns. It remains to be seen, however, whether this divergence can be sustained going forward. Table 3Risk And Return Characteristics Chart 7...But Declining Finally, although A shares historically have been structurally more volatile than other markets, the gap has been gradually narrowing - a sign of A shares' growing maturity (Chart 7). As the market continues to institutionalize, we expect price volatility will likely continue to decline. A shares, dubbed as a highly speculative "virtual casino" in the early 1990s, will become an increasingly important venue for Chinese households to park their wealth, with more moderate risk-return tradeoffs. Sector Composition And Valuation Perspective From the humble start of a handful of listed firms in the early 1990s to the world's second-largest equity market by capitalization, A shares have experienced a dramatic expansion and significant changes. Along with the two mainboards in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges dominated by large-cap stocks, several "peripheral" boards have also been established to cater to the funding needs of small and medium-sized companies and high-tech startups. Chart 8 shows the sector components of A shares - as in most equity markets, banks and financial firms account for a disproportionally large weight in the A-share index. However, compared with the Chinese investable universe,4 A shares are more diversified and are a closer representation of the sectoral structure of the broader Chinese economy. Chart 8A Shares Sector Breakdown On an aggregate level, A shares currently look cheap compared with historical norms (Chart 9). Our composite valuation indicator, an average of conventional valuation indicators such as price-to-trailing earnings, price-to-book and dividend yield, shows that A shares are currently trading at close to one standard deviation below its historical average. Under the surface, however, the market-cap weighted aggregate valuation indicators disguise some significant differences among different sectors: large-cap A-shares, mainly banks, are trading at large discounts to their respective historical means, but smaller-weight sectors, particularly technology, consumer staples and healthcare, are trading at higher multiples. Chart 10 shows a simple average of various valuation ratios of the 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors.5 With the exception of price-to-cash, the equal-weighted valuation indicators are more expensive than their respective market weight-based versions, according to our calculation. This means some larger-weight sectors, particularly banks, have significantly dragged down the valuation matrix of the broad market, while some smaller-weight sectors are more dearly valued. However, none of the valuation ratios appear extreme in a historical context. Chart 9A Shares Appear Cheap... Chart 10...But With Big Sector Gaps Summary And Conclusions Compared with other bourses, Chinese A shares currently are still more expensive (Table 4). A-shares' valuation premium may be justified from a long-term point of view, given its stronger earnings growth outlook. However, investable Chinese stocks currently are still much more attractively valued, and thus remain our favored "China play" at the moment. Table 4Valuation Ratio: Market Rate Vs. Sector Average Nonetheless, global investor interest in A shares will inevitably increase going forward, as the Chinese economy continues to gain global significance and regulators continue to deregulate the country's capital account controls. A shares' relatively low correlation with other global bourses also provides unique diversification benefits to managed global and EM portfolios, and foreigners' extremely low ownership in this asset class also generates constant tailwinds. In addition, as the market continues to mature, volatility will abate, further improving its attractiveness for global long-term investors. Yan Wang, Senior Vice President China Investment Strategy yanw@bcaresearch.com Stella Peng, Research Assistant stellap@bcaresearch.com 1 All based on weekly returns. China Shanghai A share index is used for A share index, and MSCI China Free USD total index is used for the China investable market. All other markets are calculated using U.S. dollar total return MSCI indexes, unless otherwise specified. 2 A box and whisker chart shows the degrees of returns concentration in a given time frame. The top and bottom lines of the box indicate the first and third quartiles of the return distribution respectively; the horizontal line inside the box is the median; and the tips of the vertical lines stand for the maximum and minimum returns. 3 The Sharpe ratio is calculated as monthly returns minus one-month U.S. dollar LIBOR (as risk free rate for dollar-denominated investors) divided by the standard deviation of returns. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio, which measures the excess returns divided by the standard deviation of negative asset returns (or the downside deviation). 4 Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "A Closer Look At Chinese Equity Valuations," dated August 31, 2017, available at cis.bcaresearch.com. 5 Includes Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Utilities. Real Estate is included in Financials, due to its limited data availability as a stand-alone GICS sector. Appendix 1 Cross-Sector Correlations Of Major Markets China A China Investable Emerging Markets Developed Markets All Country World Appendix 2 Distribution Of Market Returns Cyclical Investment Stance Equity Sector Recommendations

The National Association of Home Builders released their housing market index (HMI) which, while still high, took a step downward. Importantly, the softness in the HMI had already commenced earlier in the summer prior to the hurricane season (second panel). Moderating housing starts confirm the weaker industry sentiment (third panel). This is hardly surprising given lumber prices, currently bumping up against five year highs (bottom panel), which will cut materially into profit margins. As a result, the S&P homebuilders index has been tightly range bound since our early summer downgrade to neutral. Conversely, home improvement retailers benefit from high lumber prices as retailers typically earn a fixed spread such that a high dollar value sold will boost profitability. With hurricane-related rebuilding driving lumber demand (and prices) higher in the near-term, the margin spread between home improvement retailers and homebuilders should be amplified in the back half of 2017. Accordingly, we reiterate our neutral homebuilders and high-conviction overweight home improvement retailers recommendations. The ticker symbols for the stocks in the S&P homebuilders index are: BLBG: S5HOME - DHI, LEN, PHM. The ticker symbols for the stocks in the S&P home improvement retailers index are BLBG: S5HOMI - HD, LOW.

Neutral Software stock relative performance has returned to its long-term uptrend, but remains far from the two standard deviations above the mean peak reached during the tech bubble (top panel). The structural pull from the proliferation of cloud computing and software-as-a-service has served as a catalyst to raise the profile of this more defensive and mature tech subsector. Beyond this constructive backdrop, cyclical forces are also painting a brighter picture for software equities. Importantly, there is tentative evidence that a fresh capex upcycle has commenced, and if software commands a larger slice of the overall spending pie, industry profits should enjoy a healthy rebound (middle panel). Supply reduction presents a bullish backdrop for software selling prices that have exited deflation at a time when overall corporate sector inflation is decelerating. The upshot is that revenue growth will likely reaccelerate (bottom panel). Adding it up, enticing structural software forces aside, a cyclical capex recovery is a boon for software outlays and, coupled with reviving animal spirits, signal that it no longer pays to underweight this tech sub-sector. Bottom Line: The S&P software index does not deserve an underweight. Lift exposure to a benchmark allocation, and refer to yesterday's Weekly Report for additional details. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5SOFT - MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, CRM, ATVI, EA, INTU, ADSK, SYMC, RHT, SNPS, CTXS, ANSS, CA.

Underweight This year has been a good one to be overweight the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index which has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. The index's strength has been most pronounced since the beginning of the summer and, unsurprisingly given the cyclical rotation into highly discretionary stocks, has been exclusive to the cruise line operator segment of the index. Cruise line operators' margins have climbed to 10-year highs (second panel), justifying soaring stock prices. Profit gains have come on the back of improving passenger growth and constrained capacity i.e.: incremental passengers per room come with much higher incremental margin. As cruise lines cannot increase their occupancy ad infinitum further margin gains of this magnitude seem doubtful. The outlook is even less bright for hotels as cutthroat competition is pricing power negative with industry selling prices sinking into outright deflation (third panel). Hoteliers are trying to compensate for low prices with huge capacity additions. Our S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines EPS model does an excellent job encompassing all these moving parts and confirms our bearish industry profit stance, pointing to significant relative declines vis-à-vis the S&P 500 (bottom panel). Putting it together, shrinking margins and increased capital deployment mean lower return on capital and hence lower valuation multiples. Take some chips off the table and reduce exposure to the S&P hotels, resorts & cruise lines index to underweight. Please see yesterday's Weekly Report for additional details. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOTL- MAR, CCL, RCL, HLT, WYN.

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index will suffer from a profit margin squeeze, which should weigh on valuations. Cut exposure to underweight. A cyclical capex recovery is a boon for software outlays and coupled with reviving animal spirits, signal that it no longer pays to underweight the S&P software index. Augment positions to a benchmark allocation. Recent Changes Downgrade the defensive/cyclical portfolio bias to neutral. Downgrade the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index to underweight today. Lift the S&P software index to neutral. Table 1 Feature Chart 1Weak Dollar Positive Contributor##br## To EPS Growth Equities broke out in a bullish fashion last week, as geopolitical fears subsided and the backlash from hurricane Irma was less severe than initially feared. Beneath the surface, non-inflationary synchronized global growth remains the dominant macro theme. While the latest U.S. CPI print was better than anticipated the Fed would have to see a couple more perky inflation reports before an uptrend is established, cementing the December hike. Until then, the path of least resistance is higher for equities. In our last Weekly Report, we noted that our four-factor S&P 500 operating EPS model has recently accelerated.1 This week, Chart 1 isolates the U.S. dollar as the sole regression variable on SPX earnings and the fitted value suggests that profits will likely surprise to the upside in the back half of the year despite difficult comparisons. Importantly, as we posited earlier this summer, irrespective of where the trade-weighted U.S. dollar ends the year, delayed FX translation effects will act as a tonic for S&P 500 profits. Since late-December's peak, the broad trade-weighted dollar has deflated by 9%. Regression analysis shows that a 1% fall in the U.S. dollar boosts operating EPS by 0.98%, with our dataset going back to the early 1970s. If, however, we narrow the interval of estimation starting in 1994 when NAFTA come into effect then the greenback's sensitivity on SPX EPS increases to 1.6%. While every cycle is different, a fresh all-time high in quarterly EPS - driven by a weak dollar - would not surprise us in Q3 and Q4. At some point, the deflating currency should show up in selling price inflation, again as a lagged effect (middle panel, Chart 2). This is encouraging for our firming operating leverage thesis, as a modest inflationary backdrop would reinforce top line growth (bottom panel, Chart 2). The implication of a sustainable revenue growth outlook is a profit margin-led flow through to EPS, especially for high fixed cost businesses. Already, sell side analysts' overall S&P 500 net earnings revisions are benefitting from the U.S. dollar's decline, and so is sector EPS breadth (trade-weighted dollar shown inverted, Chart 3). Chart 2Will The Dollar's Fall Show Up In Inflation? Chart 3EPS Breadth Improvement Moreover, U.S. dollar-based liquidity (defined as the sum of the Fed's balance sheet and foreign central bank U.S. Treasury holdings) has finally arrested its fall and has recently ticked higher above the zero line. This even mild increase in U.S. dollar-based liquidity represents a de facto easing in global monetary conditions, and historically has been synonymous with S&P 500 EPS acceleration (Chart 4). The upshot is that profits are on a solid upward trajectory. Chart 4Dollar Based Liquidity Also On The Rise The equity market's sensitivity to the greenback has been increasing as the percentage of foreign sourced earnings has been rising over the decades. Globally-exposed goods-producers are in the driver's seat. This raises the question: what to do with our long held preference for defensives versus cyclicals? We are taking our cue from the U.S. dollar-induced shifting macro backdrop, and locking in gains of 11% since the mid-2014 inception in our defensive over cyclical sector tilt, and moving to the sidelines. As a reminder, since the beginning of the spring we have been tweaking our portfolio adding cyclical exposure and, at the margin, removing defensive protection.2 Thus, a defensive over cyclical sector preference is no longer in place. Synchronized global growth, reviving emerging markets, a stable China, and a deflating U.S. dollar are all giving us confidence that it no longer pays to play defense (Chart 5). Finally, following a sling shot recovery, relative valuations are on a more even keel, as is our relative Technical Indicator which is hovering in the neutral zone (Chart 6). Chart 5Book Gains And Move##br## To Neutral Chart 6Valuations And Technicals##br## In The Neutral Zone This week we are making an early cyclical downshift and deep cyclical upshift to our portfolio. Hotels Update: Check Out Time This year has been a good one to be overweight the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index which has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, earnings expectations have moved broadly in line with the market in 2017, meaning that the index's outperformance has been entirely valuation multiple driven. Normalizing earnings to smooth out profit volatility reveals a more severe picture with valuation multiples at decade highs, above the historical mean and at a 40% premium to the broad market (Chart 7). The index's strength has been most pronounced since the beginning of the summer and, unsurprisingly given the cyclical rotation into highly discretionary stocks, has been exclusive to the cruise line operator segment of the index. The two relevant stocks (RCL and CCL) now represent nearly half of the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index's market capitalization. Cruise line operators' margins have climbed to 10-year highs (top panel, Chart 8), justifying soaring stock prices. Profit gains have come on the back of healthy unit revenue as unit costs have remained mostly unchanged (third panel, Chart 8). Chart 7Very Expensive Beneath The Surface Chart 8Cruise Lines Leading The Pack Cruise line occupancy rates corroborate this firm demand backdrop. They have risen in line with margin gains (second panel, Chart 8), a result of improving passenger growth and constrained capacity (bottom panel, Chart 8). This has been the industry's largest margin lever, i.e.: incremental passengers per room come with much higher incremental margin. As cruise lines cannot increase their occupancy ad infinitum (occupancy rates above 100% already imply more than two occupants of a double-occupancy berth), further margin gains of this magnitude seem doubtful. In fact, if cruise operators are to continue growing profits, a capacity growth cycle will eventually have to begin anew, meaning margin contraction rather than expansion. Thus, extrapolating profit growth far into the future is fraught with danger, warning that sky-high valuation multiples are vulnerable to even a modest de-rating. The outlook is even less bright for hotels, an industry that has been losing its share of the consumer's wallet for some time (Chart 9, second panel). Specifically, the low/non-corporate end of the market seems increasingly exposed to competition from Airbnb and other room share competitors; cutthroat competition is pricing power negative with industry selling prices sinking into outright deflation (Chart 9, third panel). Hoteliers are trying to compensate for low prices with huge capacity additions, adding a sense of permanence to recent pricing power declines. However, just as pricing has fallen, the accommodation related employment cost index has gone vertical (bottom panel, Chart 9). The implication of soft pricing power and a rising wage bill is a profit letdown. Our newly introduced S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines EPS model (comprising the U.S. dollar, employment, PCE and confidence measures) does an excellent job encompassing all these moving parts and confirms our bearish industry profit stance. In fact, it is pointing to significant relative declines vis-à-vis the S&P 500 (Chart 10). Chart 9Mind The Deflationary Impulse Chart 10EPS Model Says Rush For The Exits Putting it together, shrinking margins and increased capital deployment mean lower return on capital and hence lower valuation multiples. This implies that the index's relative gains are in the past. Bottom Line: Take some chips off the table and reduce exposure to underweight in the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOTL - MAR, CCL, RCL, HLT, WYN. Software: A Capex Upcycle Winner? Software stock relative performance has returned to its long-term uptrend, but remains far from the two standard deviations above-the-mean peak reached during the tech bubble (top panel, Chart 11). The structural pull from the proliferation of cloud computing and software-as-a-service has served as a catalyst to raise the profile of this more defensive and mature tech sub-sector. Traditional hardware tech sectors, like communications equipment, are also suffering from the "virtualization" threat as software is making inroads into hardware and blurring the lines between the two. Beyond this constructive backdrop, cyclical forces are also painting a brighter picture for software equities. Importantly, there is tentative evidence that a fresh capex upcycle has commenced (see Chart 3 from last Monday's Weekly Report 3), and if software commands a larger slice of the overall spending pie, industry profits should enjoy a healthy rebound (second panel, Chart 11). Small business sector plans to expand have returned to a level last seen prior to the Great Recession, underscoring that software related outlays will likely follow them higher. Recovering bank loan growth is also corroborating this upbeat spending message: capital outlays on software are poised to accelerate based on rebounding bank loans. The latter signals that businesses are beginning to loosen their purse strings anew (third & fourth panels, Chart 11). Reviving animal spirits also suggest that demand for software upgrades will stay elevated. CEO confidence is pushing decade highs. Such ebullience is positive for a pickup in software investments (second panel, Chart 12). It has also rekindled software M&A activity, with the number of industry deals jumping in recent months (bottom panel, Chart 13). Chart 11Back To Trend Chart 12Capex Upcycle... Chart 13... And Reviving Animal Spirits Are Key Drivers Supply reduction presents a bullish backdrop for software selling prices that have exited deflation at a time when overall corporate sector inflation is decelerating. The upshot is that revenue growth will likely reaccelerate (middle panel, Chart 14). But before getting too carried away, there is some cause for concern. The S&P software index is priced to perfection fully reflecting most, if not all, of the positive drivers (bottom panel, Chart 14), warning that any sales/profit mishaps will likely knock relative performance over. Moreover, productivity dynamics are waving a yellow flag. Business sector productivity growth troughed in early 2017. Historically, this output per hour worked metric has been inversely correlated with software outlays (productivity shown inverted, third panel Chart 15). Importantly, even shown as a deviation from the long-term trend, productivity gains have troughed, suggesting that relative profit growth will likely remain muted (productivity shown inverted, bottom panel Chart 15). Keep in mind that, historically, software spending has been countercyclical (second panel, Chart 15) and given that we are not at the end of the line yet, relative outlays on software may not rebound to the same extent as our other aforementioned indicators suggest. Chart 14Impressive Pricing Power, ##br##But Fully Priced Chart 15Productivity Dynamics##br## Are A Sizable Offset Adding it up, enticing structural software forces aside, a cyclical capex recovery is a boon for software outlays and, coupled with reviving animal spirits, signal that it no longer pays to underweight this tech sub-sector. Bottom Line: The S&P software index does not deserve an underweight. Lift exposure to a benchmark allocation. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5SOFT - MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, CRM, ATVI, EA, INTU, ADSK, SYMC, RHT, SNPS, CTXS, ANSS, CA. Anastasios Avgeriou, Vice President U.S. Equity Strategy & Global Alpha Sector Strategy anastasios@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Chart 5 of the U.S. Equity Strategy Report titled "Still Goldilocks", on September 11, 2017, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see the August 14, 2017 U.S. Equity Strategy Report titled "Three Risks" for a quick recap of most of our portfolio moves, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see the September 11, 2017 U.S. Equity Strategy Report titled "Still Goldilocks", available at uses.bcaresearch.com. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps and stay neutral growth over value.

Overweight A neglected aspect of the catastrophe of Hurricane Harvey was the shutdown of nearly 40% of ethylene production, the key ingredient in plastics packaging for foodstuffs, still the largest customer for the containers & packaging index. While production is gradually coming back on line, near-term capacity constraints have driven a 50% spike in ethylene prices (not shown). In the end, we expect Harvey to be a transitory margin blip that is outweighed by the current global economic resurgence driving increasing global exports, particularly U.S. food exports (second & third panels). Moreover, chemical producers have committed capital for approximately 15% more capacity of ethylene production coming on stream in the next two years, meaning this price spike should prove fleeting. We think investors should stay focused on the rebound in containers & packaging pricing power and the industry's disciplined productivity focus (bottom panel). Taken together these factors should generate profit growth that will significantly outlast a hurricane-related dip. Stay overweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CONP - IP, WRK, BLL, PKG, SEE, AVY.

Special Report

Highlights Bitcoin and other virtual currencies have sold off sharply in recent days. However, as the turn of the millennium dotcom boom and bust illustrates, wild swings in asset prices can sometimes mask important structural changes that new technologies have unleashed on the global economy. If the proliferation of virtual currencies continues, it will have real macroeconomic effects. Globally, the volume of currency in circulation - the largest component of base money - has grown by 5.5% year-over-year. However, the growth rate would be 7% if virtual currencies were included in the tally. The indirect increase in global liquidity coming from virtual currencies should provide a modest boost to spending. This is somewhat bearish for bonds but bullish for equities. The implications for gold and the dollar are mixed. Governments derive significant "seigniorage revenue" from their ability to issue fiat currency. This is likely to impede the widespread adoption of virtual currencies, ultimately capping their prices. Feature Bitcoin And Beyond The price of bitcoin has been extremely volatile lately, falling by more than 10% last week after the Chinese government announced a ban on so-called Initial Coin Offerings. The downdraft continued into this week, spurred on by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's description of bitcoin as a "fraud." The recent selloff followed a dizzying ascent which saw the price of the upstart currency surpass $5000 earlier this month (Chart 1). Despite the pullback, one thousand dollars of bitcoin purchased in July 2010 would still be worth $58 million today. Such mind-boggling returns have caught the public's attention. There were more Google searches for "bitcoin" in August and September than for "Donald Trump" (Chart 2). Public appetite is so high that the Bitcoin Investment Trust, though officially an open-ended vehicle, has traded as high as twice its net asset value in recent months. Chart 1Bitcoin Prices: It's Been A Wild Ride So Far Chart 2President Trump: Bitcoin Is More Popular Than You! Other virtual currencies have also seen staggering returns. Ethereum is still up more than 3000% year-to-date, giving it a market cap of $23 billion. Dogecoin, a currency that was started "as a joke" according to its founders, commands a market cap of $114 million. Wider Effects? The run-up in bitcoin prices bears a close resemblance to classic bubbles (Chart 3). Yet, as the turn of the millennium dotcom boom and bust illustrates, wild swings in asset prices can sometimes mask important structural changes that new technologies have unleashed on the global economy. This raises the question of whether the explosion in virtual currencies is relevant for the broader investment community, including those investors who would never consider buying bitcoin. We would answer yes, albeit in a limited form thus far. The market capitalization of all virtual currencies currently stands at $120 billion (Chart 4). Globally, there is about $6 trillion in currency outstanding, so the value of virtual currencies is now 2% that of traditional cash and currency. That's not huge, but it's no longer trivial either. Chart 3Bitcoin Bubble? Chart 4Virtual Currencies: Market Cap Is Now Non-Trivial The importance of virtual currencies increases if we look at rates of change. The global stock of currency in circulation has risen by 5.5% over the past 12 months. However, if we add virtual currencies to the mix, the rate of growth jumps to 7%. The contribution of virtual currencies to the rate of growth of the broad money supply - which includes such items as bank deposits - is still fairly small. However, economists focus on currency in circulation for a reason: It is the largest component of base money (also known as "high-powered" money). The stock of base money helps determine the total money supply through the magic of the money multiplier and fractional reserve banking. The Monetary Hot Potato For the time being, the macro impact of virtual currencies has been constrained by the fact that most people are buying them as a store of value, rather than as a medium of exchange. It is no coincidence that up until recently, a disproportionately large amount of demand for virtual currencies has come out of China, an economy that suffers from a plethora of savings and a dearth of safe investable assets (Chart 5). In addition to squirrelling away their wealth in overpriced condos, the Chinese are now snapping up bitcoins. Chart 5Bitcoin Trading Volume By Top Three Currencies Over time, the public may begin to regard virtual currencies as legitimate substitutes for dollars, euros, yen, and yuan. This could lead people to want to hold fewer of these traditional currencies, causing them in turn to either spend their excess cash holdings or deposit them in commercial banks. The first outcome would obviously be inflationary, but so would the second if rising deposit inflows caused banks to increase lending. What would happen if people began transacting more in virtual currencies? At that point, the Fed and other central banks would need to decide whether to take some traditional paper money out of circulation in order to make room for the growing share of private virtual currencies. The merits of doing so would depend on the state of the business cycle.1 When inflation is low, as it is today in most of the world, central banks would gladly welcome anything that boosts spending and liquidity. Indeed, in some ways, the issuance of private currencies could have similar effects to helicopter drops of money. However, if inflation were to accelerate too rapidly, central banks would have to begin withdrawing their own currencies from circulation, or push for the withdrawal of private currencies. Governments Want Their Cut Chart 6U.S. Seigniorage Revenue The former outcome would not please the fiscal authorities. When the U.S. Treasury issues a $100 bill, it gains the ability to buy $100 of goods and services with it. The government's cost is whatever it pays to print the bill, which is close to zero. This so-called "seigniorage revenue" is quite large, averaging close to $70 billion per year for the U.S. government alone over the past decade (Chart 6). Why would the U.S. or any other country that issues its own currency want to part with this revenue? The answer is that it wouldn't. Instead, governments are likely to introduce their own competitors to bitcoin. The blockchain technology on which bitcoin is built is ingenious but completely within the public domain. Central banks are already thinking about how to issue their own virtual currencies. The creation of such parallel electronic currencies would allow people to send funds to one another and purchase goods and services without the need for an intermediary, a potentially negative development for banks and other financial institutions. These government-sponsored virtual currencies are unlikely to offer the full anonymity of bitcoin, but for most people, that may not be such a bad thing. As our Technology Sector Strategy service has emphasized, private virtual currencies suffer from numerous deficiencies which expose their users to fraud.2 When thieves stole 6% of all outstanding bitcoins from the Mt. Gox exchange in 2014, the victims had nothing to fall back on. A government-sponsored virtual currency could at least offer some protection to its holders, thereby making it more valuable to use. It would also allow central banks to fulfill their responsibilities as lenders of last resort. The Free Banking Era in the U.S., which at one point saw 8000 different currencies in circulation, experienced multiple banking crises. A world with myriad private currencies all competing with one another would be similarly unstable. Bitcoin: A Solution In Search Of A Problem? Chart 7The Boom In Cryptocurrencies This gets to a more fundamental issue, which is that bitcoin often comes across as a solution in need of a problem. People can already transfer money fairly easily when it is legal to do so. If the main practical advantage of bitcoin is to overcome capital controls and empower tax cheats, junkies, and hackers, it is hard to see how this does not beget a government crackdown. Ironically, the "mining" of additional bitcoins requires significant investment in specialized computers and dollops of electricity. Virtual currencies may exist in bits and bytes, but real resources must be expended to create them. In contrast, governments can create money with simply the stroke of a pen. Granted, if governments used this power to devalue the value of money - as they have periodically done from time to time - the virtues of bitcoin as a store of value would become more evident. The algorithms that power bitcoin limit the total number of coins that can ever be created to 21 million. Bitcoin is not the only game in town, however. Dozens of competitors have sprung up (Chart 7). While each may cap the number of coins in circulation, collectively they represent a potentially significant (and possibly unlimited) addition to the monetary base. Thus, it is not clear how well virtual currencies would perform as inflation hedges compared to more traditional instruments such as gold and land, let alone modern hedges such as inflation-linked securities. Investment Conclusions The role that money plays in modern economies is one of those things that people tend to tie themselves into pretzels thinking about. It's actually not that complicated. For the most part, inflation occurs when the demand for goods and services outstrips the supply of goods and services. Outside of extreme situations, the choice of monetary regime does not affect the supply-side of the economy (that's determined by productivity and the size of the labor force, neither of which central banks have much control over). Thus, it really is just a question of how the monetary regime affects aggregate demand. As noted above, there are reasons to think that the proliferation of virtual currencies will boost the demand for goods and services, either through the wealth effect channel (people who acquired bitcoin in its early days feel richer today), or via the currency substitution channel (if people start transacting in bitcoin, they may try to dispose of their excess dollars, euros, yen, and yuan either by spending them or depositing them in banks, leading to higher loan growth). Neither of these effects is terribly significant right now, but both have the potential to increase in importance over time. At some point, governments will take steps to rein in virtual currencies. However, until then, their existence is likely to spur inflation in the fiat currencies in which most prices are measured. That's bad for high-quality government bonds, but potentially good for stocks. The implications for gold are mixed. On the one hand, if the growth of virtual currencies translates into an increase in the global money supply and rising inflation, that is good for bullion. On the other hand, if people see bitcoin as a competitor to gold as a store of value, they may wish to hold less of the yellow metal. The dollar could lose out from the proliferation of virtual currencies if central banks allocate some of their USD reserves into these new currencies. However, it is doubtful this will happen to any significant degree since most central banks are likely to see virtual currencies as unwanted competitors to their own monies. In the meantime, stronger global demand growth could put disproportionately more upward pressure on U.S. inflation, given that the U.S. is closer to full employment than most economies. This could cause the Fed to raise rates more aggressively than it otherwise would, leading to a firmer dollar. Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 To appreciate this point, ponder the question of who suffers when someone goes shopping with counterfeit currency. If the economy is operating at full potential, the answer is that everyone else suffers because they have to pay higher prices for the things that they buy. However, if there are plenty of idle workers, the additional spending is unlikely to raise prices. Rather, it will translate into higher output and income. 2 Please see Technology Sector Strategy, "Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies," dated May 5, 2017. Strategy & Market Trends Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades

Overweight As the concern over hurricanes Harvey & Irma related catastrophes transitions to repair & rebuilding, it is worth examining the home improvement retail (HIR) space. HIR stocks have barely budged since the hurricanes as the market tries to figure out the earnings impact. Reconstruction is displacing renovation demand which will drive near term sales higher; the price of lumber is the usual leading indicator for sales growth in HIR and it is reaching five year highs (second panel). However, said higher prices will mean that some of the deferred renovation demand will be destroyed, implying the hurricanes simply pulled some sales forward rather than create new demand. Still, the HIR space was firing on all cylinders before the hurricanes with roaring sales and efficiency (third panel) driving margins higher. This is not reflected in valuation multiples which are surprisingly touching ten-year lows. Surging mortgage applications (top panel) should keep renovation demand on a solid footing, despite a likely near-term hiccup; stay overweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOMI - HD, LOW.