Insights
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Insight
The April Conference Board survey beat estimates, with both current conditions and expectations improving. Consumer confidence rose to 92.8 from 92.2, when consensus expected a pullback. Consumers’ assessment of their present situation was mostly flat after positive revisions to the prior month, whi...
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Insight
Our DM ex. US and GeoMacro strategists argue the dollar remains dominant but no longer holds a monopoly on reserve functions. The global monetary order is transitioning away from dollar dominance toward a regime with multiple reserve anchors. The dollar’s three core roles (international settlement, ...
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Insight
The April flash PMIs show that the global energy shock is feeding through unevenly, with sharper price pressures outside the US. Longer delivery times were widespread across developed markets, and input prices rose. One of our most timely tools for tracking inflation is our price pressure index, whi...
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Webcast Replay
Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.
- How did we get here?
- Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
- Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
- How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
- Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now?
Webcast Replay
US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1
Noah and Jason discussed:
- The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
- The capex outlook and its implications
- Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
- Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
- What a US recession could mean for equities
- Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
- Sector positioning for 2026
Insight
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
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Insight
European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany. German current conditions were better than estimates but remain deeply pessimistic at -62.9. The d...
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Insight
Our US Equity strategists dove into macro’s explanatory power in driving sector returns and fundamentals. Using principal component analysis, they show that growth, inflation, and rate risk together account for nearly three-quarters of sector return variation. Macro risks also influence f...
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Insight
Cross-asset correlations remain the clearest signal of how investors are pricing the energy shock. Risk assets rebounded late Monday after President Trump described the Iran war as “very complete, pretty much.” However, the outcome depends on Iran’s response, leadership cohesion, and willingness to ...
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Insight
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI threatens the traditional profit engines of large technology firms despite boosting productivity. Tech companies have historically relied on economies of scale, network effects, and proprietary technologies, but AI may erode these advantages. Although ...
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