Developed Countries
The US unemployment rate stands at just 4.0% today following 27 consecutive sub-4% readings. Does this low unemployment rate guarantee a soft landing in the US economy? Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team’s base case is that the US economy will fall…
US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the calculation of GDP) was revised lower…
BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical alpha and beta?…
The trade-weighted US dollar ranked among the top performing major asset classes we track in June. It hit a low on June 3rd and has appreciated by 1.5% since then. This is despite no change in short-end rate differentials and an outright narrowing in long-end…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in June. The headline index plunged from 53.8 to 48.8, its fastest pace of contraction since May 2020, far below expectations of 52.7. This series can be noisy and the June update merely reversed a surprise surge…
The US conventional 30-year mortgage rate climbed back above 7% in late June and drove a 2.6% weekly contraction in mortgage applications. The fixed-rate home affordability index sank to a nearly four-decade low. Housing is one of the most interest-rate…
We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take profits in the short position and open a tactical overweight in global materials (MXI).
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, while equity markets can drive US dollar crosses from time to time, bond market inflows matter a lot more. Part of the US exceptionalism story can be explained by the fact that: US…
The ISM manufacturing PMI ticked lower in June, from 48.7 to 48.5, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of manufacturing sector contraction. The seemingly small decline hides more uninspiring dynamics. Most notably, the production, employment…