Developed Countries
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, Australia’s macroeconomic environment validates a long AUD position, especially at the crosses. The market expects that the RBA will cut interest rates soon, but that is not likely when we look…
In this <i>Insight</i>, we revisit our long AUD trades, after the upgrade from our attractiveness ranking last week.
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish direction for the yellow metal.…
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month was revised down to a -1.1% m/m…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher mortgage activity comes amid…
There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will materialize in H1 2024 and raised the…
After briefly weakening in January, AUD/CAD has once again been moving higher over the past few weeks. Indeed, BCA’s Intermediate Term Technical Indicator is back to neutral from overbought territory, paving the way for this rebound. The question going…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, ‘bad unemployment’ is on the rise in the US, despite resilient growth. There are two ways that you can become unemployed. Either by losing your job. Or by entering the labour force to look for a job. The…
Despite the hotter-than-expected US CPI report for February, the S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday and closed at a fresh record high. Equity investors were unphased by the release and appear to have come to terms with projections that 2024 rate cuts will not be…