Developed Countries

Tech stocks have recently been bearing the brunt of the US equity selloff. The Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors – home to major H1 outperformers including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla – have both underperformed the…

3 years ago

Essentials

Ifo German Business Sentiment: Smaller-Than-Anticipated Deterioration

The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal 0.1-point decline to 85.7 delivered…

3 years ago

Essentials

Negative CFNAI Signals Below-Average US Growth

In a recent Insight we highlighted that the GDP tracking indicators produced by regional Fed banks are sending different signals about economic conditions in the US. While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests Q3 growth is around 4.9%, the New York Fed and…

3 years ago

Equities

Hitting A Pause Button: Roundtable Follow-Up

Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Focus On Three Sectors

European stocks and the euro continue to weaken; soon, they will test the bottom of their recent trading range. Which sectors can protect investors against this downdraft?

3 years ago

Essentials

The Bulls Have Retreated

Investor sentiment has turned less optimistic. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook has collapsed to 31.3% from its peak of 51.4% two months ago. It is now back down below its historical average of 37.5%.…

3 years ago

Essentials

The Corporate Financing Buffer

According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is shrinking.. Households have been…

3 years ago

Essentials

Timing The BoJ's Next Move

As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…

3 years ago

Essentials

Flash DM PMIs Indicate Deteriorating Service Sector Activity

Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US, the Services PMI’s…

3 years ago

GeoMacro

Fourth Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.

3 years ago

Developed Countries

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