Developed Countries
The flash August S&P Global PMI data released on Wednesday painted a picture of softer global growth, while also hinting that Europe is on the cusp of recession. The composite PMI for the euro area fell by 1.6 versus the previous month to 47.0, led by…
European natural gas prices have recently been trending higher with the Dutch TTF gaining 66% since late July. The proximate cause of the rally is supply concerns. The risk of strikes at Australian LNG plants are a threat to the country’s LNG shipments –…
Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to encourage carry trades, it has…
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD. A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data and surging long Treasury…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has enjoyed a lot of positive surprises…
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now at its lowest level since last October. At 69.5 in…
Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed and fell by 14.5 points to -13.1, indicating…
Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy uncertainty will spike, global growth is slowing, and geopolitical risks are still high.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…