Developed Countries
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook is that inflation will be sufficiently weak for the Fed to go on an extended pause after one more 25 basis point rate hike this month. This will cause both Treasury yields and slopes to trend…
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-like pattern. Each cycle tends…
The NFIB survey provided a slightly positive signal about the US economy in June. Small business optimism improved from 89.4 to a 7-month high of 91.0 – beating expectations of a more muted increase to 89.9. Details of the report corroborate the signal…
Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US fiscal policy is marginally negative for the economy and marginally increases the odds of recession in 2023-24. It is not a positive catalyst for equities in the third quarter. Fiscal policy is…
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
The latest update of the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index provides a positive signal for US goods inflation. It shows used car prices fell by -4.2% m/m (-10.1% y/y) in June – its third consecutive monthly decline following a brief pickup in…
On the surface, the lower-than-anticipated job gains suggest that US labor market conditions softened last month. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the increase in nonfarm payrolls slowed from a downwardly revised 306 thousand to 209 thousand in June – below…
Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for the Fed to continue tightening beyond July,…