Developed Countries
US retail sales delivered a negative signal about consumer demand in March. Overall retail sales fell by the most since November, with the 1% m/m drop coming in below expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline following February’s 0.2% m/m decrease. The monthly…
Data released over the past week show a resurgence in short-term US consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey’s measure of year-ahead expectations jumped by 1 percentage point to a 5-month high of 4.6% in April. Similarly,…
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…
Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.
As expected, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% for the second consecutive time on Wednesday. In the Monetary Policy Report, the central bank revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.0% to 1.4%, but revised down the 2024 estimate to…
The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun. …
Prior to the early-March bank turmoil, a good-news-is-bad-news narrative was the dominant force driving financial markets. At the time, signs of resilient demand and lingering price pressures – on the back of the January US jobs report, robust consumer…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the US economy will be strong enough to avoid rate cuts in 2023. As such, the 49 bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 are misplaced. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting contained a few interesting…
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second quarter is murky, investors should stay defensive this year on the whole.
Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.