Developed Countries
US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…
Heading into 2023, BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service recommends fixed-income investors overweight Euro Area IG relative to both government bonds and US credit, while adopting a more cautious stance toward high-yield. European corporate…
The chart above shows equity valuations ahead of the eight most recent major S&P 500 drawdowns. It suggests that there is some evidence that the magnitude of decline in equity prices is somewhat dependent on equity valuations ahead of the drawdowns. In…
On aggregate, US firms experienced a sharp increase in pricing power following the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this trend has since reversed, and companies’ pricing power is fading. The darkening economic backdrop ultimately limits firms’…
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggest that American household morale firmed in December. The headline index climbed 2.3 points following November’s decline to 56.8. Importantly, consumers’ assessment of current…
Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.
We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.
S&P 500 Growth stocks have underperformed the Value index by 21% so far this year, erasing all of their relative gains since the S&P 500’s March 23, 2020 pandemic bottom. This year’s rapid increase in bond yields has weighed more heavily…
The latest US and Eurozone CPI inflation releases both surprised to the downside, fueling optimism among investors that central banks will soon pivot. However, US labor market dynamics remain very tight. The November jobs and wage growth figures…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, a winning strategy is to be long currencies where real interest rates could rise in a recession. These include petrocurrencies (specifically the NOK), as well as the currencies of…