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Developed Countries

Hurdles For The Loonie
Although the Canadian dollar has been underperforming its G10 peers since the greenback’s September 27 peak, it has held up relatively well on a year-to-date basis. Going forward, both the outlook for BoC policy vis-à-vis the Fed, as well as oil price…
Daily Insights
EU Oil Embargoes, Price Caps, Insurance Bans Loom

Our 4Q22 and 2023 Brent forecasts remain at $100/bbl and $116/bbl. Upside price risk continues to dominate oil markets. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain exposure to oil and gas producers’ equities, and higher commodity prices and further backwardation, particularly in copper.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
US Retail Sales Growth Highest In Nine Months
US Retail sales increased by a higher-than-expected 1.3% m/m in October, marking the highest monthly increase since January. Gasoline station sales were by far the largest contributor, though the control group (excluding gasoline stations, food services, auto…
Daily Insights
Stagflation In The UK
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate surged from 0.5% to 2.0%. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights
Weakening Capex Outlook Weighs On Manufacturing Output
US industrial production contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase. Notably, manufacturing output inched up by only 0.1% m/m and the previous three months of expansion have all been revised significantly lower. …
Daily Insights
Stay Overweight Aussie Government Bonds
The Reserve Bank of Australia is among the global central banks that are leading the dovish shift in the monetary tightening cycle. Specifically, elevated private sector debt raises the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates, ultimately limiting the…
Daily Insights
A Cross-Country Look At Corporate Bond Sector Valuations

The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We are putting more weight on the fundamentals and are staying with an overall underweight stance on global investment grade corporates, with a slight bias towards Europe given more attractive spread valuations. At the same time, we see selective opportunities in sectors where risk-adjusted spreads are wide as signaled by our individual country sector valuation models, like US Energy and euro area Financials.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
US PPI Inflation Slows In October
US PPI inflation slowed to a lower-than-expected 8.0% y/y in October from a downwardly revised 8.4% y/y. Similarly, core PPI inflation eased to 6.7% y/y from 7.1% y/y, below expectations of 7.2% y/y. Both core goods and services contributed to the decline. …
Daily Insights
German Investors Becoming Less Pessimistic
November’s reading of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment reveals that investors are becoming less pessimistic about the Eurozone economy. The expectations and current situation indices for Germany and the Euro Area jumped significantly above consensus…
Daily Insights
US Equities Are No Longer Oversold
The Fed’s aggressive hawkish pivot at the start of the year triggered a sharp selloff in US equities that pushed the S&P 500 deep in oversold territory. Just one month ago, our composite tactical technical indicator was signaling that the equity drawdown…
Daily Insights

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