Developed Countries
US industrial production contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase. Notably, manufacturing output inched up by only 0.1% m/m and the previous three months of expansion have all been revised significantly lower. …
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate surged from 0.5% to 2.0%. Meanwhile,…
US Retail sales increased by a higher-than-expected 1.3% m/m in October, marking the highest monthly increase since January. Gasoline station sales were by far the largest contributor, though the control group (excluding gasoline stations, food services, auto…
The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We are putting more weight on the fundamentals and are staying with an overall underweight stance on global investment grade corporates, with a slight bias towards Europe given more attractive spread valuations. At the same time, we see selective opportunities in sectors where risk-adjusted spreads are wide as signaled by our individual country sector valuation models, like US Energy and euro area Financials.
US PPI inflation slowed to a lower-than-expected 8.0% y/y in October from a downwardly revised 8.4% y/y. Similarly, core PPI inflation eased to 6.7% y/y from 7.1% y/y, below expectations of 7.2% y/y. Both core goods and services contributed to the decline. …
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service is overweight credit card companies, but only over a short investment horizon. All of the largest credit card processing companies, such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, have delivered strong Q3-22 sales…
November’s reading of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment reveals that investors are becoming less pessimistic about the Eurozone economy. The expectations and current situation indices for Germany and the Euro Area jumped significantly above consensus…
The Fed’s aggressive hawkish pivot at the start of the year triggered a sharp selloff in US equities that pushed the S&P 500 deep in oversold territory. Just one month ago, our composite tactical technical indicator was signaling that the equity drawdown…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, although the decline in US CPI is a tailwind for European stocks, strong rallies are premature. Chinese growth shows no sign of improvement. Similarly, the collapse in the global PMI’s new…
Results from the New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations underscore that the Fed still has its work cut out for it. Household inflation expectations rebounded with median one-year-ahead expectations increasing from 5.4% to 5.9%,…