Developed Countries
The Canadian economy unexpectedly added a whopping 108 thousand jobs in October – ten times the amount anticipated – and significantly above the 21 thousand increase in September. Job gains in October alone recouped cumulative losses observed from May to…
Global central banks’ uber-hawkish stance is behind the surge in bond yields this year. Policymakers are delivering outsized rate hikes in an attempt to combat decades-high inflation. The Fed delivered its fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike on Wednesday with…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, long-term investors should begin to sell the dollar on strength. From a pragmatic standpoint, there are five key signposts that have been useful in tracking the dollar uptrend this year.…
The ISM Services PMI declined by a greater than expected 2.4 points to 54.4 in October, signaling a slowdown in the pace of activity. The details of the release highlighted concerning dynamics at play. Most notably, new export orders plummeted 17.4 points…
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% on Thursday. The decision marks the largest interest rate hike in 33 years and brings the cost of borrowing to a 14-year high. Notably, seven of the nine MPC members voted for the…
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency in October, appreciating by 4.7% versus the USD over this period. This marks a reversal following a 19% decline in the first nine months of the year, during which it was the second worst performing G10…
Older workers have deserted the labour force in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. The result is that wage inflation is red hot in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. Hence, the Bank of Japan is right to remain a lone dove, the ECB must pivot from its uber-hawkish stance quite soon, but the Fed and the BoE must not pivot from their uber-hawkish stance too soon. We go through the major investment implications.
The ISM Manufacturing index declined from 50.9 to 50.2 in October, nearing stagnation and the lowest level since May 2020. The details of the report highlight conflicting dynamics at play in the US manufacturing sector. Although production growth…
The Global PMI suggests that factory activity deteriorated at a faster rate in October. The Manufacturing index declined from 49.8 to 49.4, marking the third consecutive monthly contraction. Notably, all seven subindexes either declined or remained below 50…
As expected, the Fed delivered a 75bp rate hike on Wednesday, bringing the cumulative increase in the Fed funds rate to 375bps since the start of the tightening cycle in March. The FOMC statement was amended from September to include a new sentence…