Developed Countries
Yesterday we highlighted that the macroeconomic environment could support a rally in Treasuries over the coming months if easing price pressures allow the Fed to set the stage for a policy pivot. Our Composite Technical Indicator is also suggesting that…
The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed the pace of its interest rate increases on Wednesday, delivering a 50bp hike against anticipations of another 75bp rise. The decision reflects an attempt to balance between stubbornly elevated inflation and…
Australia’s headline CPI inflation accelerated to 7.3% y/y in Q3 from 6.1% y/y, the highest level since 1990. Housing, transportation and food led the year-on-year increase. Trimmed mean CPI, a less volatile measure of core inflation, also firmed from 4.9%…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 107.8 to 102.5 in October, significantly below anticipations of a milder decrease to 105.9. In particular, the Present Situation Index sunk to 138.9 from 150.2 while the Expectations Index declined…
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany was broadly unchanged at 84.3 in October, beating consensus expectations of a decrease to 83.5. The 0.4-point decline in the Current Assessment index was better than consensus estimates of a 1.6-point drop.…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, if Republicans only take the House, US policy will be more dysfunctional than if they take the entire Congress. US opinion polls are breaking in favor of Republicans in the final lap of the midterm…
10-year US Treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday after closing at a 14-year high of 4.25% on Monday. The question facing investors is how much further can bond yields rise? Our US Bond strategists recently analyzed past Fed tightening cycles and found…
This week’s report takes a look at risk-adjusted return opportunities in US spread product.
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the biggest banks’ commentary validates their view that a recession has not yet begun and will not begin before late 2023. Except at the lowest end of the income and wealth distributions, consumers…
On Monday, UK Gilts rallied on news that former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The 10-year yield fell by 31bps while the 2-year yield ended the day 24bps lower – levels that prevailed prior to the…