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Economy

Can Rate Hikes Stop The Indonesian Rupiah's Slide?
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Indonesia's “window of opportunity” to transition to a lower real interest rate regime – without jeopardizing the currency stability – has closed. This opportunity had opened thanks to an…
Daily Insights
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The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator Approaches Its Event Horizon

Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also highlight a new long-term recommendation. Plus, the Norwegian krone is close to a potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Iron Ore And Steel Prices: An Unsustainable Divergence
Special Report

Increasing iron ore prices coupled with declining steel prices represent an unsustainable disparity. Iron ore prices will pivot downward in the next six months. A sizeable reduction in China’s steel production will likely occur, reducing global iron ore demand. Meanwhile, global iron ore supply will increase moderately.

China Investment Strategy
On The Mixed Signals From Chinese Trade Data
Chinese trade data for October delivered a mixed message on Tuesday. On the one hand, the export contraction deepened to -6.4% y/y following -6.2% y/y in September and surprised expectations that it would moderate to -3.5% y/y. Yet on the other hand, import…
Daily Insights
A Dovish RBA Rate Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with consensus expectations. Governor Michele Bullock's post meeting statement underscored that although inflation is moderating, it remains too high…
Daily Insights
Manufacturing And Services Weigh Down On Global PMI
The Global Composite PMI slid to 9-month low in October, sending a pessimistic signal about economic conditions around the world. The 0.5-point decline pushed the index down to 50.0 – right on the boom-bust line indicating that global activity stagnated last…
Daily Insights
Magnificent Seven: Operating Margins Vs. Valuations
The Magnificent Seven constitute 26.7% of the S&P 500 and are the cohort responsible for the majority of S&P 500 returns this year. Fundamentals, and, specifically, the profitability of the group are behind the strong performance. If we compare the…
Daily Insights
Agency MBS Spreads Look Very Attractive
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by 64 basis points in October,…
Daily Insights
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Sector Chart Pack: Checking Market Pulse

The Vicious Troika remains a long-term threat, but over the short term, rates will likely have another leg down on growth concerns, offering support to equities, which are now fairly valued and are no longer overbought. Longer-term outlook remains negative. The Magnificent Seven will likely lead a tactical rebound. Overweight Growth vs Value and FSemis.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Is Long Yen A Bad Idea?
Last week the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced further relaxations to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Despite this, the yen has shown no signs of life. Since the BOJ's decision was announced, the yen is the worst performing G10 currency; on a 2023YTD…
Daily Insights

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