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Economy

Will I Work For AI, Or Will AI Work For Me?
Special Report

This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially, generative AI does not have a ‘limbic system’ which means that it will lag well behind humans in emotional intelligence, or EQ. I hope you find the speech insightful and provocative, especially on how we might have completely misunderstood human intelligence and super-intelligence, and the economic and societal implications for the coming decade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
European Bond Strategy Ahead Of A Critical ECB Meeting

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Global Fixed Income Strategy
US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates
US small business optimism deteriorated for the first time in four months in August. The NFIB index declined by 0.6 point to 91.3, falling slightly below expectations of 91.5. In particular, current conditions deteriorated slightly: the share of owners…
Daily Insights
UK: Sticky Wage Pressures Despite Rising Unemployment Rate
The latest UK labor market developments complicate the Bank of England’s task when it meets next week. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3% in the three months to July as employment fell by 207 thousand. Similarly, payrolled employees…
Daily Insights
Mixed Signals From The ZEW
Results of the ZEW survey of investor sentiment delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the positive side, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany unexpectedly ticked up from -12.3 to -11.4, surprising expectation of a further deterioration to…
Daily Insights
US Consumer: "Richcession" Will Be A Drag On Spending
Strong consumer spending so far this year has been powered by robust employment gains coupled with real wage growth turning positive on the back of receding inflationary pressures. However, our US equity strategists recently highlighted that these…
Daily Insights
Market Opportunities In Central Europe

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Chinese Credit Growth: At A Turning Point?
Recent Chinese economic data show some signs of stabilization. China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in August. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY3.12 trillion – above expectations of CNY2.69 trillion and exceeding the prior month’s CNY0.528…
Daily Insights
NY Fed Survey Results Warn About Consumption Outlook
The New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey shows household sentiment deteriorated in August. Job loss expectations jumped, with the average perceived likelihood of losing one’s job over the coming year increasing by 2.0 percentage points to a…
Daily Insights
About Those Excess Pandemic Savings
Our colleagues at BCA’s US Investment Strategy service have been excess savings bulls since cash began silting up on household balance sheets as transfer payments flowed from the Capitol to Main Street while High Street businesses were shuttered. Excess…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics