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Economy

Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
Daily Insights
What Will Be The Key Drivers Of A US Earnings Rebound?
It is widely expected by consensus that earnings growth will rebound into the year-end and into 2024. Multiple factors will drive the reacceleration in earnings growth. Sales growth will pick up: In the remainder of the year, sales growth will pick up from…
Daily Insights
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
Daily Insights
Buy Chinese NEV Stocks
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing’s investment focus is shifting from traditional infrastructure to new economy infrastructure, which includes clean energy and high-tech sectors.  Due to funding constraints,…
Daily Insights
Is There A Bullish Case For EM ex-China? (Part 1)
Special Report

Some investors have thrown in the towel on investing in Chinese equities, instead deploying capital in EM ex-China – or at least contemplating doing so. This report examines the merits of investing in EM ex-China stocks and concludes that EM – whether including or excluding China - will continue underperforming DM equities.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
China’s Infrastructure Investment: A Deceleration In 2023H2
Special Report

The trajectory of China’s infrastructure investment in 2023H2 will be like what occurred in 2021H2. Growth will likely drop from the current nominal 10% to 0-2% in the next six months. China will continue promoting environmentally friendly infrastructure projects that may prevent a contraction in infrastructure investment in 2023H2.

China Investment Strategy
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights
Chile Kicks Off The EM Rate Cutting Cycle
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle.  In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy rate by a whopping 100 basis…
Daily Insights
July Survey Results: H1 2024 US Recession, US Equity Outperformance
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondents (59%) expect the next…
Daily Insights

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