Economy
Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – down 4.2%, 3.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. …
The Q2-2023 earnings season will kick off this Friday. The following are the investors’ “Cliff notes” to this earnings season. Market Expectations Earnings growth: According to Refinitiv IBES, earnings will contract by 6.4% y/y. If that is an actual…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy team, China’s fiscal support will be limited due to political and economic factors. China has heavily relied on government expenditure support to sustain its economic growth in recent years. However,…
An outlook for inflation and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.
The stratospheric valuation of this year’s AI mania is likely to deflate, just as it did after the Web 1.0 mania of the late 90s. We go through some long-term and short-term investment implications.
The Politburo meeting in late July will set the course for economic policy for 2H23. We think China will only resort to "irrigation-style" stimulus if something breaks in the economy and/or financial markets. Furthermore, the gradual and targeted rounds of stimulus are unlikely to boost economic activity considerably. The reasons are the diminished efficacy of the monetary transmission mechanism and the unique features and constraints of the nation’s fiscal system.
China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in June. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.22 trillion – above expectations of CNY 3.10 trillion and exceeding CNY 1.56 trillion in the prior month. Similarly, the CNY 3.05 trillion worth of new…
Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…
The NFIB survey provided a slightly positive signal about the US economy in June. Small business optimism improved from 89.4 to a 7-month high of 91.0 – beating expectations of a more muted increase to 89.9. Details of the report corroborate the signal…
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-like pattern. Each cycle tends…