Economy
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the downside in earnings over the remainder of the year creates a dangerous risk that can catalyze a sharp pullback at any moment. To protect themselves, investors can separate the alpha and…
This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the debt limit and in the case where a deal is not reached in time.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index inched up from 93.2 to 93.6 in April, slightly above anticipations of a more muted rise to 93.4. Interestingly, a 1.2-point increase in the Expectations components drove the improvement in the headline index and surprised…
French MSCI consumer discretionary shares have performed strongly over the past year, booking a gain of 31%. Consequently, they have outperformed global consumer discretionary by 42%, and the Eurozone stock market by 24%. As a result, French consumer…
Flash PMIs for April indicate that an ongoing improvement in the service sector continues to drive economic activity across major developed economies. Composite PMIs in the US, Eurozone, and the UK are all firming on the back of an acceleration in…
China’s economic reopening, the abating European energy crisis, and rising real income growth amid a moderation in inflation have led to a pickup in economic activity over the past few months. The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI has been on an uptrend since…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the SIFI banks’ first quarter earnings confirm that an inflection in the business cycle is not just around the corner. The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) reported their first quarter earnings…
The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks was encouraging on balance. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low. Though a recession is surely coming, it doesn’t seem to be lurking just around the corner.
Last week’s US unemployment insurance claims data showed an increase in both initial and continuing claims. While weekly initial claims rose from 240k to 245k, the jump in continuing claims from 1.80 million to 1.87 million was more notable because it…
The rapid rise in US interest rates that has occurred since early 2022 has been the main driver of global risky asset prices over the past year. This quick tightening in monetary policy has occurred because of a surge in inflation to levels that are well…