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Economy

Tracking China’s Recovery

China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.

China Investment Strategy
Deteriorating Global Growth Expectations …
The ZEW Survey of German investor sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in April. The sentiment index fell 8.9 points to 4.1, disappointing consensus estimates of an uptick to 15.6 and recording its second consecutive monthly decline. This move reveals that…
Daily Insights
… Despite China’s Recovering Economy
China’s economic data sent a positive signal about the domestic recovery following the dismantling of pandemic restrictions. GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022 to 4.5% y/y in Q1 2023, marking the fastest pace in a year and beating expectations…
Daily Insights
Singapore’s NODX Rebuts China’s Export Rebound
In a recent Insight we highlighted that Chinese exports unexpectedly rebounded in March. To the extent that Chinese export growth suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is recovering, it poses a risk to our view that the global trade downturn will…
Daily Insights
Empire Survey Signals March Drop In Manufacturing Output Will Not Persist
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a positive signal about US manufacturing activity in April. The headline general business conditions index jumped 35.4 points to 10.8, unexpectedly crossing into positive territory for the first time since…
Daily Insights
G7 Diplomats In Japan (Part 1)
The top diplomats of the G7 countries – US, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy – plus the European Union are meeting in Karuizawa, Japan on April 16-18. The summits are going forward despite Japan’s recent domestic security concerns stemming from a…
Daily Insights
G7 Diplomats In Japan (Part 2)
The reason why the EU will try to balance economic ties with China along with defense ties with the US for as long as possible is not strictly economic. Europe and the US are much more reliant on China than Taiwan for trade, but that has not prevented the US…
Daily Insights
Simmering Down

Investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent data suggest that the aggregate banking system is bouncing back nicely.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Introducing Our European Earnings Models

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
Is The RBA Done For This Cycle?
Special Report

In this Special Report, we evaluate future prospects for the Australian dollar and Australian government bonds. The currency remains fundamentally cheap, and positioning is very short, but the AUD will continue to underperform in the near-term due to sluggish global growth. Australian government bonds have had a nice run of outperformance over the past year, but it is now time to take profits with given the uncertainty that the RBA will deliver the rate cuts currently discounted.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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