Economy
German PPI inflation decelerated from 17.6% y/y to 15.8% y/y in February – the lowest since September 2021. Although the February print came in above consensus expectations calling for a more significant slowdown to 14.5% y/y, it nevertheless continues a…
Asian trade data continue to send a negative signal for the global manufacturing cycle. Taiwanese export orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month in February, declining by 18.3% y/y. The weakness remains broad-based with nearly all major product…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services, there are a few shifts that could be immediately expected with an end to the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. First, the outperformance of stocks…
The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed an unexpected drop in household morale. The headline index’s 3.6-point decline to 63.4 surprised consensus estimates it would remain unchanged. The decline came on the…
Based on FDIC data, US banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for about half of C&I lending, and over half of mortgage and commercial real estate lending. As such, the turmoil in the banking sector will inevitably weigh on economic activity.…
The banking tumult is shining light on the impact of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. In the one year since the FOMC’s first rate hike last March, the fed funds rate has increased by a massive 450 basis points, making the current tightening cycle one of…
In light of the recent bank failures and news about Credit Suisse, BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer team use the factors within BCA Score to determine which region’s banks are the most distressed. The BCA Score is the team’s 30-Factor bottom-up factor model…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue to weigh on the euro. The ECB will…
The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had to raise rates to over 6%. In both cases, economic growth would decelerate but at least in the former scenario, the discount rate applied to earnings would not be as high.