Economy
The 70-city average price of a new house in China ticked up by 0.3% m/m in February, registering the first monthly increase since August 2021. Notably, this trend is broad-based across Chinese cities with new house prices rising in 55 of the 70 cities in…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending…
US retail sales delivered a relatively somber signal about consumer demand in February. The advance estimate’s 0.4% m/m decline in February came in line with expectations of a decrease following January’s upwardly revised 3.2% m/m gain. Notably, the…
Chinese data confirms that household spending rebounded in the first two months of 2023. The 3.5% y/y increase in retail sales in January and February follows two consecutive months of declines at the end of last year and marks the strongest gain in a…
US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is more imminent than most economists anticipate. Exactly one year ago today, the US Federal Reserve embarked on the most…
The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The US CPI release indicates that price pressures remained elevated in February. Importantly, core CPI inflation ticked up on a month-on-month basis to 0.5% m/m – above expectations it would remain unchanged at 0.4% m/m – marking a continuation of an uptrend…
Canada’s labor market has been surprisingly resilient over the past few months. Last Friday’s employment report showed a 21.8 thousand increase in jobs in February, more than double expectations of 10 thousand. This continues a string of strong beats.…