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Economy

NFIB: Inflation, Tight Labor Market Are Key Concerns
The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…
Daily Insights
More Large-Cap Bank Failures Are Unlikely
Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold. Our US Investment Strategy service doesn’t…
Daily Insights
Generative AI As A Structural Investment Theme
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy & US Equity Strategy services are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. One of the reasons for the technology sector’s unexpected outperformance since the beginning of January is a frenzy around…
Daily Insights
Strategy For Central Europe

The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish / receive Czech 10-year swap rates.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Special Report

Generative AI is a major technological breakthrough that holds tremendous economic and investment promise and will have sweeping effects on wide swaths of the economy. We are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. However, at the moment we observe hallmarks of an investment frenzy. We believe that there will be a more attractive entry point for patient investors.

US Equity Strategy, US Political Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
NY Fed Survey: Near-Term Inflation Expectations Retreat
The results of the New York Fed’s February Survey of Consumer Expectations show a significant decline in short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.8 percentage points (pp) to 4.2% – the lowest since May 2021.…
Daily Insights
The Bank Selloff Deepens
The performance of S&P 500 sectors was mixed on Monday with Financials emerging as the major loser, down 3.8%. In particular, the selloff in bank stocks deepened, with regional banks leading the decline. As BCA’s Chief US Investment strategist…
Daily Insights
Can EM Outperform Amid US Banking Woes?
Emerging market stocks have recently outperformed their developed market peers as the US banking woes have heightened. Is it the beginning of a new trend or a short-term aberration? To a large extent, the answer depends on what happens to the US dollar. If…
Daily Insights
The Outlook For The Pound
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that on a long-term basis, the pound is an attractive currency, but the near-term outlook is challenging. The long-term appeal of the GBP rests on three pillars: Valuations: The…
Daily Insights
Comprehensive UK Outlook

The UK economy is more resilient than was feared last year. While this will not help UK stocks, the Footsie’s long term prospects are appealing.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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