Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

Earnings Growth Expectation For Q1-23 And Beyond
Lower earnings expectations: Analyst earnings growth expectations have moderated since the summer, downshifting from a sugar-high 10% in July to the most recent target of 2% for the next twelve months.  This is a positive for equities as it indicates…
Daily Insights
Sector Chart Pack: What Is Cheap?

The equity market is back to the 2019 level on an inflation-adjusted basis. However, it is still not cheap as it is not pricing in the possibility of a prolonged and deep earnings recession or a higher interest rates regime. Many areas of the market that appear cheap, are cheap for a reason. The only industries that are cheap because they are growing into their valuations are Energy and Airlines. We are upgrading Airlines to equal weight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
The Beginning Of A Relapse In European Soft-Data?
The March Sentix Economic Index sent a cautionary signal about investor morale. The overall index for the Eurozone declined from -8.0 to -11.1 – marking the first monthly decrease since the index bottomed at -38.3 in October and missing expectations of a…
Daily Insights
China's Growth Target Disappoints
China’s legislative session, which formally opened on March 5, should be seen as a tentative disappointment for global risk assets and cyclical markets and sectors. While China is reopening from strict Covid-19 restrictions, which is positive for domestic…
Daily Insights
February Survey Results: A Shift In Policy Expectations
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted last week, we asked about our readers’ expectations for Fed policy, regional equity allocation, and the tactical outlook for the S&P 500. The majority of respondents (70%) expect the Fed to end the…
Daily Insights
US Savings Rate Rises And Falls With Income Growth
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service excess pandemic savings are far more evenly spread than most investors realize, and all but the households at the bottom of the distribution are swimming in cash. The team has used the savings rate…
Daily Insights
Too Hot, Too Cold, Both Or Neither?

A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Chilean Stocks: The Beginning Of A Structural Outperformance?

The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling inflation and local yields, record cheap valuations, and dissipated political volatility.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana
How Low Can The Japanese Inflation Drop?
Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…
Daily Insights
Lumber And The Recession Debate
It is well known that recession risks usually start to manifest themselves in the most cyclical parts of the economy. These include widening junk bond spreads, where tightening credit conditions will hit the most vulnerable of borrowers, cyclical…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics