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Economy

US Households Are Still Flush
Our US Investment Strategy service is more optimistic about the US economy and US equity performance in the near term than the consensus inside and outside of BCA. Its near-term optimism largely derives from its view that US households have the capacity and…
Daily Insights
A Strong Rebound In Chinese Consumption Growth This Year
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China’s consumption growth will rebound strongly this year following an extremely dismal performance in 2022. China’s post-pandemic re-opening is creating a mean reversion in the country’s…
Daily Insights
The US Housing Recession Is The ‘Canary In The Coal Mine’

Since 1970, the track record of US housing recessions as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for economic recessions is a perfect four out of four: 1974; 1980; 1990; and 2007. If this perfect track record continues, the current US housing recession presages an economic recession that starts in 2023. We discuss the investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
China’s Consumption Recovery: Cyclical And Structural Outlook

Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre-pandemic era.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
Resurgent Services Lead Business Activity Rebound
February flash PMIs showed a stronger improvement in service sector activity relative to the manufacturing sector in February. Services PMIs increased across all major DM economies (US, Japan, Eurozone, Germany, France, and UK) and exceeded consensus…
Daily Insights
South Korean Exports Signal Weak Global Manufacturing Conditions
Asian trade data continue to highlight that global demand for goods remains weak. South Korean exports in the first 20 days of February fell 2.3% y/y – marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Although the contraction was not as pronounced as the…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Climbs Higher
The preliminary estimate of the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 1.7 points to a 1-year high of -19 in February, in line with expectations. This marks the fifth consecutive improvement in household sentiment. Firming consumer…
Daily Insights
China’s Construction Sector Will Boost Copper Versus Steel
In a recent insight, we highlighted that Chinese housing construction is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound. Although Beijing has rolled out easing measures to stimulate the ailing property market, our China Investment strategists have argued that the…
Daily Insights
A Brighter Long-Term Picture For European Financials
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the green light to buy and overweight European banks and financials will come once the ECB relents on its hiking campaign. The positive long-term outlook for European financials, including…
Daily Insights
A Fair Value For Bond Yields When The Fed Is On Hold

This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a prolonged period.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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