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Economy

Will The ECB “Stay The Course”?
As expected, the ECB raised its three policy rates by 50bps on Thursday and signaled that it intends to raise interest rates by another 50bps at its next meeting in March. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde underscored that the decision…
Daily Insights
Risk Assessment Of Our Commodity Views
Special Report

Our bullish view on commodity prices is underpinned by demand growth driven by stronger real GDP, led by EM. Threats to this view – i.e., a failed re-opening in China, stronger USD, higher real rates in the US, and continued policy uncertainty – are non-trivial. All the same, we remain bullish industrial commodities and gold.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
A Dove In Hawk’s Clothing

This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Manufacturing Contraction Eases In January
PMIs suggest that the pace of decline in manufacturing activity slowed in January. The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.1 from 48.7, indicating that the rate of contraction eased last month. Notably, the improvement was broad-based across all…
Daily Insights
Fed Downshifts, Signals More Hikes To Come
As expected, the Fed downshifted the pace of rate hikes once again and delivered a 25bp rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. Changes to the post-meeting press release support the decision to shift to a less hawkish stance. In particular, the…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market Is Still Too Tight
Results of the December JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market remains extremely tight. Job openings unexpectedly jumped from 10.4 million to 11.0 million, surprising expectations of a decline to 10.3 million. As such, the job openings rate increased…
Daily Insights
January In Review
Nearly all major financial assets we track outperformed their post-GFC average returns in January. In particular, US Investment Grade bonds posted the highest z-scores last month, followed by global government bonds. These assets benefitted from cooling…
Daily Insights
Will Chinese Platform Companies Become Red Chips?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the stocks of China’s largest platform companies are unlikely to experience a structural uptrend. Over time, Chinese platform companies will likely become de facto SOEs. As a result, their…
Daily Insights
Biden's Political Capital In 2023

President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Monthly Portfolio Update: The Key Question For The Fed

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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