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Economy

What Did We Learn From The Midterms?
Special Report

Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Guy Russell
Eurozone Morale Improves Further In January
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory, from -23.6 to 16.7 in the…
Daily Insights
Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets In January
The gauge of manufacturing activity in the state of New York sank a whopping 21.7 points to -32.9 in January, largely disappointing expectations of a marginal improvement to -8.6. Notably, new orders and shipments dropped by 27.5 and 27.7 points respectively,…
Daily Insights
Beijing’s Tradeoff
Chinese GDP growth slowed sharply from 8.4% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022. Moreover, the economy remained weak in Q4, with GDP growth softening from 3.9% q/q in Q3 to 0.0% q/q (from 3.9% y/y to 2.9% y/y). However, the deterioration in economic activity was widely…
Daily Insights
Macro Headwinds Threaten ADXY’s Rally
Asian currencies have strengthened in recent months, with the ADXY index up 7.8% since the beginning of November. These gains reflect broad-based dollar weakness: the DXY Index has fallen 8.2% over this period. Dollar dynamics will remain relevant to the…
Daily Insights
Deteriorating Canadian Business And Consumer Sentiment In Q4
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Business Outlook Survey highlights weakening business sentiment in Q4. The overall index fell to 0.1 from 1.7 in Q3, below the average that has prevailed over the past decade. Notably, most firms surveyed cited rising interest rates…
Daily Insights
Inflation No Longer Generating Big Surprises
Inflation Surprise Indices have come down from stratospheric levels across DM economies, indicating that inflation figures are surprising by smaller margins. The moderation is broad-based across the US, Euro Area, UK, and Canada. Indeed, inflationary…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Big Risk
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest threat hanging over European markets is the increasingly hawkish tone displayed by the ECB. The ECB is very worried about inflation, especially with core CPI bucking the trend…
Daily Insights
The Effect Of China's Reopening On US Equities

China's reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world, as it will boost its domestic service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the industrial economy. A slowdown in Chinese industrial activity will put downward pressure on its demand for raw materials and energy, helping the world avoid another spike in inflation. Upgrade Macau casinos to overweight as the key beneficiaries of reopening. Off-shore TMT and bank shares face structural headwinds.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Assessing Inflation-Linked Bonds As Global Inflation Peaks

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese inflation-linked bonds with the Bank of Japan moving away from yield curve control at a time of relatively high Japanese inflation.

Global Fixed Income Strategy

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