Economy
Profits of Chinese industrial firms fell by 3% y/y in the first 10 months of 2022, underscoring poor economic conditions. Domestically, the sluggish property sector and negative Covid dynamics are weighing down on private sector demand and corporate profits.…
The US October CPI report showed a broad-based moderation of inflationary pressures, suggesting that price pressures have likely peaked and will continue to ease going forward. A wage-price spiral -- whereby workers demand higher wages to compensate for…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that in the first half of 2023, weak Chinese growth will be the most important headwind facing European asset prices and currencies. Ever since it joined the WTO in 2001, China has become a…
European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?
Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
Preliminary estimates suggest that durable goods orders unexpectedly firmed in October, accelerating to 1.0% m/m from 0.3% m/m previously, against milder growth expectations. New orders for transportation equipment grew 2.1% m/m and led this increase, though…
Canadian equities outperformed their US counterparts in local currency terms on a YTD basis. The S&P/TSX decreased by 4%, against a 16% decline for the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this outperformance. The TSX’s greater exposure to…
Despite a recent pro-growth bias in the policy tone, the Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open the stimulus taps to the same extent as they did in the past, especially when it comes to the ailing property market. China’s policy framework has shifted…
Both Brazilian equities in USD terms and the currency have dropped below their 200-day moving averages since the electoral return of ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 31, as investors discount a reversal in the Goldilocks scenario of economic…