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Economy

A Two-Headed Bond Volatility Monster
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service continues to recommend underweight allocations to US Treasuries and UK Gilts in global bond portfolios, while targeting a below-benchmark overall global duration exposure. Global bond yields continue to…
Daily Insights
Lower Oil + Gas Capex Will Keep Inflation Elevated

Monetary and energy policy errors will keep oil- and gas-price volatility elevated. This will continue to weaken capex in conventional and renewable energy. Headline inflation will remain elevated. We remain long the XOP ETF, to retain exposure to the equities of oil and gas producers, which will benefit from these policy errors.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
UK CPI Inflation Reaccelerates In September
After moderating in August, UK CPI inflation firmed again in September, rising back up to its 40-year high of 10.1% y/y – slightly above expectations. Food and goods prices (particularly clothing and furniture & household goods) led the broad-based…
Daily Insights
The Two-Headed Bond Volatility Monster

Is the US in a wage-price inflation spiral that could lead to more aggressive Fed rate hikes? Is it time to buy UK Gilts after a wild month of volatility? We answer "no" to both questions, as we discuss in this week’s report.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
US Manufacturing Production Expands For Third Consecutive Month
US industrial production surpassed consensus expectations and grew 0.4% m/m in September from an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in August. Notably, manufacturing output also positively surprised, expanding by 0.4% m/m and the prior month’s figure was…
Daily Insights
On The RBA’s 25bp Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia was the first among major DM economies to slow its pace of rate hikes. Even though both the inflation and labor market backdrops supported a 50bp rate hike at its most recent policy meeting, the RBA surprised the consensus by…
Daily Insights
ZEW Suggests Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Has Not Yet Bottomed
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment is signaling that economic conditions in the Eurozone are likely to deteriorate further. The spread between the expectations and current conditions components typically leads trends in the Euro Area manufacturing PMI. It…
Daily Insights
Canadian Businesses Are Feeling The Impact Of Tighter Policy
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey reveals that weaker sales growth expectations are dampening confidence among Canadian businesses. The BOS indicator dropped from 4.87 in Q2 to 1.69 in Q3 – the weakest level since Q1 2021. Notably, the survey…
Daily Insights
How To Read Xi's 20th Party Congress Speech
Special Report

Favor US and Southeast Asian stocks over global stocks. Stay underweight China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
The Case For A Pause

The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle in Q1 or Q2 of next year.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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