Economy
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its fifth consecutive half-point hike on Wednesday, raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee indicated that economic conditions warrant further monetary…
Earlier this week, we highlighted that September’s Manufacturing PMIs provided a bleak signal for global factory activity. Some of the key indicators we track from the PMI releases corroborate this assessment. Specifically, at 45.1 in September, the New…
The US JOLTS Report revealed that the number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million in August from 11.2 million in July, largely below expectations of a milder decline. This 10% month-on-month decrease is the largest since the beginning of the pandemic in…
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish surprise to market participants. The central bank slowed the pace of rate hikes by raising the cash rate by only 25 basis points to 2.6% – below the 50bp hike anticipated. Tuesday’s decision follows…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, a cooling housing market does not represent a material economic threat. The speed and magnitude of the backup in mortgage rates has upended the housing market. However, sellers are likely to…
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent moves to reduce overall duration exposure and increase the underweight to US Treasuries.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2022.
On Monday, the Global Manufacturing PMI sent a negative signal about factory activity. The indicator fell from 50.3 to 49.8 in September – marking the first contractionary reading since June 2020. In particular, the Output index fell deeper below 50 –…
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI sent a pessimistic signal about the US economy. The headline index lost 1.9 points in September and fell to 50.9 – disappointing market expectations of 52. This marks the lowest print since May 2020 and brings the indicator close…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend a highly defensive stance, with an underweight on equities, and as high a cash holding as your mandate permits. This has been an extraordinary year so far: US equities are down by 24%…